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Horcoff Breaks Knuckle. Will the Oilers Buckle? |
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Let's just get one thing straight:
It's not that I think Shawn Horcoff is a bad hockey player. In fact, he's an important player for the Edmonton Oilers. He's not their best player; wouldn't even put him in their Top 5. Maybe not even in their Top 10. Wait, let me think about this. Who is better than Horcoff on the Oilers? From best player down...and we're not talking "potential" here. We're talking about how good everyone is right at this moment.
1. Jordan Eberle
2. Taylor Hall
3. Justin Schultz
4. Ales Hemsky
5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
6. Jeff Petry
7. Ladislav Smid
8. Sam Gagner
9. Nick Schultz
10. Horcoff
Okay, so I think Shawn Horcoff is the 10th best player on the Oilers RIGHT NOW. Nail Yakupov isn't on the list yet, but give him a year in the NHL and he'll push his way into the Top 5 on this list. Where was I?
My issue with Horcoff has nothing to do with him. It's that damn contract of his. He received 1st line money, and he possesses 3rd line talent. It's not his fault the Oilers gave him such a stupid contract. Horcoff has value to the Oilers. I don't think he's the team leader at all, so that's not it. And he doesn't really contribute points or make the players around him better, so that's not it either. What you have in Horcoff is a solid two-way center who can win face-offs and function in a shut-down role.
Do we know yet if Eric Belanger's foot is actually broken? Because if it is, it could be curtains for the Oilers season. I kid you not.
But why? Belanger certainly isn't a Top 10 player, and Horcoff barely makes the list. The problem is, the Oilers just don't have the horses at center.
You might have noticed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is struggling. The stats don't lie, friends. The good thing is, Nuge is so talented, he'll sooner or later snap out of his funk, and goals will start falling from the sky. I still think Nuge and Eberle would play better with a moose like Hartikainen on their line, but that's just me.
Sam Gagner is playing great. You'll hear no complaints from me about what Sammy is doing. He's not a big, physical two-way center, though. He doesn't make the Oilers better defensively.
If you look at the Oilers roster, Shawn Horcoff was the closest thing they had to be big, physical two-way center. Without him and without Eric Belanger, the Oilers defensively could be in big, big trouble.
So what happens now? Because you'd think Horcoff is going to be gone for a good six to eight weeks. The Oilers have called up Mark Arcobello, which is a good reward for an honest kid who's played his heart out on the farm this season...But Arcobello is a smurf, and he's not a solution defensively. Anton Lander has played well for the Oilers during his brief time here this year, but Lander struggled in the minors. It's hard to believe he's ready enough to help the Oilers get past life without Horcoff and Belanger.
I know what you want to ask, so I'll say it: Will the Oilers make a move this week? Can they afford not to?
One person suggested to me the Oilers sign Jason Arnott. Didn't he fail a physical when he attempted to sign with a different team? Pass.
One person suggested the Oilers go get Marty Reasoner. Really? I don't know how he's better than playing Arcobello or Lander.
So here's what I'm wondering...
The Oilers are going to buyout Shawn Horcoff anyway at the end of this season. The plan was to bring in a quality player during the summer to replace him. Do the Oilers have the want/need/desire to speed up the process...Try to bring in someone now?
Oh, I don't know who it could be. I'll throw some names out there.
1. Paul Gaustad. Talented two-way center who isn't playing great right now in Nashville. Seems to get paid pretty well considering what he contributes.
2. Lars Eller. Talented player who isn't getting much ice in Montreal. I think Alex Galchenyuk has ruined any chance Eller has to get into the Top 6 there. Eller wouldn't be gifted to the Oilers though. I'm not sure what the Oilers could/would offer up that would make it work.
3. Andrew Cogliano. What? Really? Hey, at least you'd know he'd fit in. Lots of people still like Cogs. He's about the size of Arcobello though, but I could actually see the Ducks willing to part with him.
4. Ryan O'Reilly. This is the answer everyone wants to see happen, but unfortunately, the price tag would stink. To the tune of the Oilers 1st round pick in 2013 and a second player like a Nick Schultz or Magnus Paajarvi. I'm not sure the Oilers want to pay that much for a center considering how Gagner is doing.
5. RJ Umberger. Call this Shawn Horcoff the 2nd. The Jackets would love to dump this guy's contract. His stats are terrible this season and he's getting paid. Still has four years on his contract at $4.6mil after this season. The Oilers need to find someone to step in post-Horcoff, but is the situation this desperate?
6. Brandon Dubinsky. Second highest-paid forward in Columbus and he's got hardly any points to show for his season. Unlike Umberger, Dubinsky wouldn't be a gift. The Jackets would actually want an asset or two back.
7. Brock Nelson. Who? It wasn't a Brock. It was a Brock lobster. Nevermind. If I'm the Oilers, this is the player I'm targeting. Young. Big. Two-way center with his whole career ahead of him. He's not even playing the NHL right now. Nelson has 28pts in 35 games in the AHL this season. The Oilers should offer up a 2nd and a prospect, or both 2nd round picks in 2013 to see what the Islanders would do.
8. Tyler Bozak. He has one year left until he goes UFA, so this would be a rental deal. I think the Leafs would be loopy to get rid of this guy, but maybe he doesn't want to re-sign there? Not sure if Boazk is an option.
You all know how this works in Edmonton. Oilers GM Steve Tambellini and the management group are extremely patient and won't jump into making a bad deal, even if it means trying to survive the rest of the season without Horcoff. And, as we've discussed before, there's an upside to the Oilers being terrible this year: The 2013 Draft is incredibly deep, and the Oilers will have a range of quality centers to choose from. My guess is, management will ride this out like they always do. I don't think the Oilers are prepared to part with a Hemsky, a Gagner...even a Paajarvi...so riding this out might be the only option.