Through five games, Phil Kessel is still looking for his first goal of the season.
In spite of taking twice as many shots as any other teammate, the 25 year old winger has struggled out of the gate, with just two assists on opening night in Montreal less than two weeks ago.
Long scoring slumps are nothing new for Kessel. They have plagued him before and they likely will throughout his career.
The question that is beginning to be asked by many observers of the Leafs is whether the club is going to invest millions of dollars on a long term contract.
The 25 year old winger had his best pro season in 2011-12, playing all 82 games, finishing sixth in the NHL scoring with 82 points and in the top ten in goals with 37. The ability to repeat those numbers under the wide open offense of Ron Wilson looked to be a challenge playing the more defensive oriented system of Randy Carlyle.
That task was made more difficult with the injury to Joffrey Lupul, who suffered a broken forearm last Wednesday in Pittsburgh and will be lost for up to six weeks.
The indicators being put out since the firing of Brian Burke are that the Leafs are more focused on a long range plan of developing their own young players than making acquiring players in an attempt to sneak into the playoffs.
The much ballyhooed rumors regarding Vancouver veteran goalie Roberto Luongo have quieted in recent weeks because GM Dave Nonis is clearly not interested in surrendering young core prospects like Nazem Kadri or Jake Gardiner.
The decision to be made by Nonis and the Leafs management team is what path to take for the club over the balance of the season, with players like Tim Connolly, MacArthur and Bozak, who are unrestricted free agents at the end of the season and for Kessel and team captain Dion Phaneuf, who are under contract till the end of the 2013-14 season.
If the Leafs philosophy is to go through a proper rebuilding program, then trading some or all of these players makes the most sense.
The club’s salary cap situation was left in excellent shape by Burke, as Toronto will be well below the $64 Million number for the 2013-14 season and have only have four veterans under contract(Lupul, Grabovski, van Riemsdyk and Liles) after that. Based on Kessel’s offensive output over the last four years(36,30,32 and 37 goals) and the increase in point totals each year with the Leafs, the likely amount to re-sign Kessel could be in the $7 to 8 Million range.
The Leafs cannot sign Kessel to a contract extension until he enters the final year of his contract(July 1), but they would likely contact agent Don Meehan of Newport Sports well in advance of that date to get a feel of the perimeters of a deal or to probe whether he is willing to re-sign with Toronto.
Kessel’s current deal has a limited no-trade clause that kicks in on July 1, which would limit the market they could generate in a possible trade. If Leafs management determined that signing Kessel long term is not the way to go, then the best time to trade him would be on or before April 3rd, when he can help a team looking to make a Stanley Cup run or a push to the playoffs and have another year left on his deal.
Unless the stars are aligned, the Leafs are not going to be able to get anywhere close to the return that they paid Boston for Kessel three and a half years ago, but they can get a significant package of young players and prospects and it may be the best course.
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Carlyle placed Clarke MacArthur on the top line with Kessel and Tyler Bozak in New York on Saturday, but MacArthur left the game with a finger injury and is unlikely to play against the Buffalo Sabres tonight,
James van Riemsdyk, who scored his third goal of the season against the Rangers, will move up to the first line in hopes of generating some offense, as the Leafs so far are averaging under three goals per game.
Defenseman Mike Komisarek also will not play, as he needed stitches to repair a cut near his eye from an errant puck during practice.
James Reimer, who played great in the loss at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, will start his second consecutive game and third of the season.
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