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If you’re feeling a spinning sensation while following the Blackhawks right now, it’s not because your team’s hopes are swirling the drain (at least not yet anyway).
It’s because the Hawks’ marketing/p.r. machine is in high gear.
First it was Stan Bowman in an interview with ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun last week, scoffing at those who dare suggest the Hawks need to make substantive moves to improve. After all, Bowman suggested (paraphrasing), ‘we were a 101 point team that just underachieved in the playoffs.’
But isn’t it just as likely the 101 points was an overachievement—especially since it was the second straight year the Hawks were bounced in the first round?
According to Bowman, that’s crazy. And the Hawks don’t listen to that kind of talk anyway.
Then it was CSN/NBC color man Eddie Olczyk, who, after offering a fairly scathing indictment of the Hawks after their elimination from the playoffs in April, including especially Hawk goaltending, went on the NHL Network the other day and said (essentially): Corey Crawford outplayed Phoenix Mike Smith in regulation throughout the series.
Really?!
Let me caveat what I’m about to set forth with this. As I have blogged here over the last week or so, if most or all of the dominoes fall the right way for the Hawks this year, they could have a very good regular season and go deep in the playoffs. And if Bowman can pull off a goaltending or center upgrade before the trade deadline (which is probably unlikely), they could potentially make it out of the West.
If so, I will be the first to say: we all jumped the gun and got too negative—and Bowman deserves huge props for staying the course and playing his cards like a master poker player.
But if most or all of those dominoes don’t fall Bowman’s way, then, Houston, we have a problem.
I also want to be fair with Bowman, who, by all accounts is a nice guy, and certainly has had his share of personal challenges. It’s a fairly widely held belief that John McDonough is not easy to work for. It’s also fairly apparent that the Hawk front office is a bit crowded.
As a source close to the Hawks told me yesterday: “you have . . . decisions being made by committee.”
So this is really a larger critique of the front office. However, Bowman doesn’t get a free pass—even if he has not been given real authority, he embraced the responsibility when he took the job.
Here’s what we knew about Bowman when he took the job in 2009; he was a numbers guy who managed the Hawks’ cap for a few years and was the son of a Hall of Fame coach (who came along as an employee in the deal).
Here’s what we knew about the Hawk front office at the time: there were some conflicting agendas, a high profile (and some say egomaniacal) Team President with zero hockey bona fides (who, among other things, appointed his own personal hockey adviser and in 2011 actually had a commercial made about himself).
I would argue, nothing has really changed.
What Bowman has done well is manage the team’s cap.
He, himself, told Lebrun the other day that the team is well-positioned for the future with regard to the cap. And in so doing, he has sold off (and some might argue, in some cases, gave away) all-star talent like Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd and Brian Campbell. Gone also are mainstays of the 2010 Cup team like Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer and Brent Sopel.
What Bowman got back in these deals was cap relief and cap space that has largely gone unused for nearly two years, and, on the (hopefully) plus side, prospects like Philip Danault, Adam Clendening and Kevin Hayes. On the middling side, prospects like Justin Holl, Phillippe Paradis and Jeremy Morin. And on the disappointing side, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Chris DiDomenico and Rostislav Olesz.
So unless you’re a big fan of unused (or at best conservatively used) cap space, the return Bowman got in those deals will at best never quite equal what he gave up. Sure, some of that cap relief went into extensions for Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook, among others. But that, at best, just maintained a core—now bereft of the really strong supporting cast that was there up until the summer of 2010.
But let’s be generous and give Bowman an A- for cap management. And let’s also put that into the proper perspective: he should be good at that. It was his job as Assistant GM.
Then let’s look at amateur player development.
The best Hawk prospect right now is 19 year old Finnish C/W Teuvo Teravainen. For some still unknown reason—and maybe just dumb luck—this smooth-skating, uber-intelligent sniper fell to #18 in the first round, where the Hawks sat thanks to their first round exit against Phoenix. Thank you, Corey Crawford. Without that playoff disappointment, the Hawks probably would have gotten a lesser prospect.
Then there’s Bowman’s prize pick from the 2011 draft, another big-time faller (to 43rd overall after being projected as a top 10 pick), Brandon Saad. Saad looks like he can be a second line winger at some point with a good two-way game, in spite of some over-eager types ready to enshrine him in the Hockey Hall of Fame, based on some good junior numbers—like that’s never happened before.
Andrew Shaw, a 2011 5th round selection, looks like a player of some value.
After that, there is a fairly large stable of guys who seem to have some NHL potential as second or third pairing defensemen, third or fourth line role players—and really no NHL projectable goalies (ironically, the weakest position for the Hawks at the NHL level).
For the number of picks Bowman acquired in 2010 and 2011, I would argue it’s a, meh, OK showing. And I think the grade is further weighted down by whiffs (or ‘singles’ at best) on the acquisitions of drafted prospects, Morin, Paradis and DiDomenico.
So, let’s generously put the amateur talent grade at B-. But let’s also put that in perspective; a lot of the credit for that goes to Assistant GM and former amateur scout Norm McIver.
Then let’s look at what I would argue is the True Test of an NHL GM. Pro player acquisition and development.
Aside from the large, talent sell-off deals that Bowman largely lost (and those factor in here as well as in the cap grade), Bowman has made a number of smaller deals, the biggest of which was his first: sending Cam Barker to Minnesota for Kim Johnsson and Nick Leddy. This deal is now essentially Barker for Leddy and looks like it was a win for the Hawks, although the jury remains somewhat out on how good Leddy will be.
And I will give him props for getting more than a box of tape for Jack Skille.
Johnny Oduya, whose skills neatly fit the Hawks’ defensive style, was a solid acquisition last March.
But some of the free agency moves haven’t been as successful: Steve Montador, John Scott, re-signing inconsistent Michal Frolik to a big contract (and many believe at the expense of losing Brouwer).
It’s also been argued he overpaid to retain Sharp and Hjalmarsson. Bowman boldly predicted in the summer of 2010 that neither Hjalmarsson nor Cup winning goalie Antti Niemi were “going anywhere.” That, right before Niemi was allowed to leave for conference rival San Jose with no compensation. All this, allegedly because someone in the front office did not account for a Conn Smythe winning bonus for Jonathan Toews and other bonuses.
Bowman defaulted to then career minor leaguer Crawford as the team’s number one goalie. And after a surprisingly strong 2010-2011 (behind a Hawk defense that still included Campbell), Crawford was given the money that likely would have kept Niemi—the better goaltender, proven statistically and head to head when both were with the Hawks.
And let’s also look at what Bowman has done with the cap space he regained in 2011—which it’s hard to assess as anything more than “not much.” Lots of money thrown at existing, rostered players, lots of minor free agent deals with varying degrees of (not much) success.
Deals have been out there to be made.
After snapping up center Jeff Carter, who my sources told me was offered to the Hawks, the LA Kings went on to win the Cup while the Hawks were playing golf.
My source elaborated further on this yesterday:
“After Bowman executed the Cam Barker for Johnsson and Leddy trade, he got so much praise that it has left a stigma with other NHL GMs. Apparently he used this same approach with many of his proposed deals after the Leddy trade. This has irked other GMs and now left Stan being extremely gunshy and not being able to execute a risk reward trade that would benefit the Hawks. Long story short, Stan is not held in high regard by other GMs throughout the league. Stan killed a deadline deal last year that would really have helped the Hawks when he kept trying to squeeze more out of (an Eastern Conference team).”
Add to this, a crowded front office, and an exceedingly image/marketing conscious team clearly focused on glorifying current players and prospects—and you have a recipe for a very hesitant GM— who will balk at value for value deals.
Meanwhile, Bowman doubles down on his public stance that the team is better than its performance—an either unintentional or very sly way of shifting blame to the coaching staff.
Pro player acquisition grade: D-, and this grade should be weighted most highly for a GM of a team that is supposed to be a Cup contender.
Finally, there’s how Bowman (and the club) addresses things publicly, which is growing more maddening by the day.
Because the other thing Bowman doubles down on is his promotion of what appear to be “pet” players.
Specifically, last season, Leddy (the “prize" of Bowman’s big 2010 trade) should have been in the minors. And there have been rumors that the coaching staff resented being forced to give Leddy top 4 minutes.
And the question has to be asked: has any Hawk prospect since Patrick Kane (drafted #1 overall in 2007) been more hyped in team statements and in the media (both affiliated and unaffiliated with the Hawks) than Brandon Saad?
Why? A 2011 World Junior showing that some like Bob McKenzie called “disappointing?” 21 points in 32 games and a lower shooting percentage than any other top 9 forward in Rockford?
Don’t get me wrong, Saad is a big body who can skate and seems to have a two-way game—and potential. But the hype and the timing do not remotely equal the production. Junior production? Go look at the career stats of a guy named Brett Sonne. Or Kyle Beach. Rob Schremp. Angelo Esposito. Morin. Or Jeff Shantz. Where are they now? The list goes on and on.
And Saad was not the first player drafted by the team in 2011, or even the second (both of whom are good prospects), but the third. And therein might lie part of the reason for the hype.
Saad has been marketed by the team as a ”find.” And, like Leddy, his making the team early in his development might help “prove” (to some) that Bowman is a genuine talent prospector.
Honestly, Saad being the Hawks’ 12th-13th forward this year is probably not a problem on the ice for a team that is fairly loaded at wing anyway. However, it begs the question, where is the (much more needed) great goalie prospect or second line center the team has completely failed to find?
Regardless, the rapid promotion (and yes—hype) of kids like Saad and Leddy seems to have been used to placate the fanbase in the absence of pro player acquisition for two years now.
Bowman had a sit-down with a beat writer to talk about the team’s “Top 10 Prospects” (Tim Sassone, Spring 2011)—right at a time when he should have been working on acquiring NHL talent. What he ended up with was a very positive article about Beach and 9 others—and a deadline deal for Chris Campoli.
Coincidence?
Last week, Bowman stressed to Lebrun the team’s cap health, 101 regular season points last year, underachievement in the playoffs, how the team ignores those who feel bigger moves need to be made, etc.
Why not say something like:
‘First round playoff exits simply aren’t good enough for a team that should contend for a Cup every year. I’ve told Joel and the staff we need better from the players we have. But I have to keep working to improve the club. We feel we’re close, and maybe we’re going to get where we need to be with who we have. But I won’t assume anything. No one, including me, can rest on their laurels. And I will continue to explore every avenue to improve the team.’
What, as a fan, would you rather hear? What, as Rocky Wirtz, would you rather hear? What, as a player, is going to motivate you more?
It’s called leadership.
I know what my grade is on that point for really the entire front office—from the commercials about themselves to the blame-shifting to smug self-satisfaction with disappointing results for two straight seasons.
What’s yours?
And, yeah, grades can be improved at any time the front office decides to.
Thanks for reading,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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