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The NHL Predictions Blog

January 17, 2013, 11:29 PM ET [66 Comments]
Ty Anderson
Boston Bruins Blogger •Bruins Feature Columnist • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Everybody has them. I'm sadly no exception. These are my predictions for the 2013 NHL season. Feel free to yell at me for not picking your team to win it all in the comments or on Twitter. Just don't hit me in the face, please.

1. New York Rangers

I’m not picking the New York Rangers as the Eastern Conference’s best in 2013 because of the addition of top-line forward Rick Nash, although for most it’s (understandably) reason enough. Nor is it the progression of talents such as Carl Hagelin, Derek Stepan, and Chris Kreider that’s sold me on this club. Instead, it’s the 48-game workload in front of the league’s best goaltender, Henrik Lundqvist.

For years now, I’ve been critical of the Rangers’ handling of Lundqvist, who’s started at least 68 games in five of the last six seasons. Done more out of necessity than anything else, last year the Rangers finally seemed to give their franchise goaltender a break (He only played a bit-more-human 62 games last year), and went further than they ever have with Lundqvist in net. Coincidence? Hardly. In a 48-game season, the chance for John Tortorella to subject his goalie to Miikka Kiprusoff Syndrome, where you have a guy play almost every game and then act surprised when he looks gassed by the playoffs, is reduced, and will make the Rangers the class of the Eastern Conference by a sizable lead.

Oh, and that Nash guy isn’t too bad, either.

2. Washington Capitals

Last year, fans in Boston watched on in horror as the seventh seeded Washington Capitals bounced the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games. Then it was on to New York, where fans in Manhattan narrowly escaped a similar fate, edging by the Caps in a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden. But even in defeat, just how could a Caps teams that seemingly cut captain Alexander Ovechkin’s minutes in half due to a lack of a strong two-way game, find a way to win in the playoffs? It was all about the wickedly ritualistic Braden Holtby.

Finishing the playoffs with a 7-7 record but a ridiculous .935 save-percentage, the 23-year-old enters the year as the projected starter (although new bench-boss Adam Oates has hinted at riding the hot hand, be it Holby or Michal Neuvirth), Holtby’s continued to emerge as the club’s top goaltending option. Dazzling with Hershey on the way to an AHL Goaltender of the Month honor last month, Holtby leaves the American Hockey League (probably for good, at least for this year anyways), with the league’s fifth best goals-against-average (2.14) and third best save-percentage (.932).

However, despite the addition of what will (finally) stabilize the goaltending situation in the Nation’s Capital, the biggest addition will come with the rejuvenation of Ovechkin and company, particularly on the man-advantage. Call it the Perfect Power-play Storm. Bringing a power-play savvy coach such as Adam Oates into the fold was strong enough, but adding play-making center Mike Ribeiro to a lineup already featuring Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green (when healthy), and the ever-maturing John Carlson? My goodness, we could be talkin’ about a Washington attack that earned them the top seed in the Eastern Conference three years ago.

3. Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins may have lost two-time Vezina winner Tim Thomas to ‘personal reasons’ this year, but the core from the 2011 Stanley Cup team is still very much intact, and that’s something that’ll surely leave Northeast Division opponents frustrated for the second straight year.

Handing the torch on over to Tuukka Rask, any of the Bruins’ question marks in net will be answered by a top-six featuring a true 1A (Milan Lucic-David Krejci-Nathan Horton) and 1B (Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-Tyler Seguin) attack, and reinforced by a top-four defense slated to add the skill-set of the 18-year-old Dougie Hamilton. That’s not even including a bottom-six that includes 20-goal scorer Chris Kelly, 30-assist man Rich Peverley, or the always dependable Andrew Ference on defense.

But what will make the Bruins the most dangerous, in my opinion, will be the ‘beefing’ up of the division with agitators, enforcers, and grinders, something that will make each B’s game more physical, and in turn play towards the Black-and-Gold’s advantage.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

The 26-year-old Evgeni Malkin is back from a KHL stint that included 23 goals and 42 assists in just 37 games, James Neal is back in the fold for at least six more years following the first 40-goal season of his career last year, the club finally has a real back-up goaltender (Tomas Vokoun) to support any slumps seemingly sure to come Marc-Andre Fleury’s way, and captain Sidney Crosby is healthy.

Say hello to your 2013 Pittsburgh Penguins.

5. Carolina Hurricanes

I’ve doubted the Carolina Hurricanes an incredibly long time. Since their improbable run in 2009, actually.

Everyone’s told me what an amazingly clutch playoff goaltender Cam Ward is, and I never seem to bother stopping them and just confirming “Well, yeah, when he’s been there.” Ward, while solid, is not enough to get you to the postseason in my opinion.

Fortunately for fans in Carolina, there’s more to this bunch this season, as the additions of Jordan Staal and the ‘enigmatic-despite-scoring-20-goals-every-year-since-2006’ Alexander Semin should be more than enough for the ‘Canes to score their way in.

And on the blue-line, expect Joe Corvo to once again play well in Carolina because that’s pretty much all he knows how to do.

6. Philadelphia Flyers

Analyzing the Philadelphia Flyers is a hard task for just about anybody. On paper, this team looks to be one of the best in the entire NHL.

You have tremendous depth up front, headlined by newly named captain Claude Giroux, who’s in my opinion the best all-around hockey player in the game today. Then there’s Ilya Bryzgalov, who I still believe is one of the game’s best goaltenders when his head is screwed on straight. Yes, I know, I know. But where the Flyers lose me is on the point, where the loss of Chris Pronger still looms. Largely, too.

It’s going to be a battle in Philly this year, but their offense is good for about four goals a night, so it’s hard to imagine them struggling even with a work-in-progress defense.

7. Buffalo Sabres

I, strike that, we, love to make of the Buffalo Sabres for adding ‘hockey player’ John Scott this year. We love to take shots at the club’s petulant child in net, Ryan Miller, and talk about the comedic relief known as the Ville Leino contract.

But we can’t forget just how well the Sabres, namely Miller, played down the stretch. From February on last year, Miller went an impressive 18-6-5, allowing just 64 goals in 30 games played, as the Sabres fell just three points shy of a playoff spot they should’ve have been nowhere near.

On top of the fortified crease, the Sabres biggest need came up front, where a lay of pugilistic skills and downright nasty two-way play doomed this club for what felt like the thousandth year in the row. The Sabres, without a true Lucic-type player (I know, I know), were easily bullied around by the bigger, stronger clubs of the Eastern Conference.

Insert Steve Ott. Acquired from Dallas in exchange for the 5-foot-8 Derek Roy, a player the Sabres seemed to have dozens of, expect Ott to provide some much needed sandpaper and edge to a bland Buffalo lineup.

8. New York Islanders

This is a prediction I stood by this summer, and with the season on tap, I think it’s too late to back out now. Granted, I thought that this Isles club was going to include (at least) OHL superstar Ryan Strome, who was returned to the Niagara IceDogs today, but call me crazy when I tell ‘ya that I believe in the 2013 New York Islanders.

If you can recall, the Isles hung around for quite a while last year, and actually made things interesting for a forever-disenchanted fanbase slated to lose their club to Brooklyn in a few years. The Blue-and-Orange were led by the criminally under-discussed John Tavares, who finished with the eighth most points in the entire league last season, and it’s become clear (See: Matt Moulson, P.A Parenteau, [whomever skates next to him this year]) that Tavares can lead this offense. An offense that’s sure to see rebound seasons from Josh Bailey (when healthy), Michael Grabner, Kyle Okposo, and the developing Nino Niederreiter.

“We’ve got to play the division teams the most, and that’s how we’ll learn how to compete with the best teams in the league,” Niederreiter told me in an interview this past summer. “We need to have a little bit of luck and we have more veterans this year, so I’m sure we have everything it takes to earn a playoff spot, but our consistency is the most important thing.

If the Isles can have just a bit more consistency, which would include protecting leads (they were the worst in the league last year when leading after two periods), there’s nothing that says that this young team can’t compete and surprise opponents.

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9. Tampa Bay Lightning

Can the 24-year-old Anders Lindback, who’s never played more than 22 games in a year, be a legitimate No. 1 goaltender? Can Victor Hedman take the leap everyone in Tampa Bay has been dying for? Is Sami Salo actually going to hold up for a season and be a top-four defensemen this year, even one that’s just 48 games long? Can Steve Stamkos score 48 goals in 48 goals? That’s a lot of questions for the Lightning, and only one of them is really positive.

I think they just miss out.

10. Ottawa Senators

Whenever I talked to a member of the Ottawa Senators last year, I felt something about them that I found incredibly compelling. They simply praised the style of coach Paul MacLean. Now, a lot of teams say that they believe in what their coach is preaching, but the Senators went beyond saying it; They flat out showed it.

Every. Single. Night.

But with a playoff appearance under their belt now, teams are going to expect the Senators to come hard. They’ll notice the plethora of role-players their forward core is littered with, they’re sure to scout one of the Sens’ three capable goaltenders, and most of all, they’ll plan for defending Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.

Can the Sens hang and generate the same momentum they did last year? I’m just not sure.

11. Montreal Canadiens

I love goaltender Carey Price. I like the Habs’ offense. I hate Montreal’s defense.

That’s if it even holds up. Lookin’ at you, Andrei Markov.

12. New Jersey Devils

I could be wrong here, but has a team played more over their head than the New Jersey Devils did last year? Something about their entire run just seemed unlikely, and far from what’s to be considered the norm in Newark. Marty Brodeur and Johan Hedberg are both a year older, and Zach Parise was replaced by Krys Barch. What?

13. Winnipeg Jets

Goaltender Ondrej Pavelec allowed 191 goals last year. That was the most in the National Hockey League, by nine. He also played in five fewer games than second place goaltender, Jonas Hiller. He also was the recipient of a five-year contract extension worth $19.5 million this past summer. In what world does this make sense?

Top-pairing defensemen Dustin Byfuglien also weighs about a thousand pounds now, too.

14. Toronto Maple Leafs

If Roberto Luongo is in Toronto, this team is in the playoffs. Yes, that’s how bad I think the Maple Leafs’ goaltending core is right now. It kills them that much in my eyes.

15. Florida Panthers

Last year, the Florida Panthers won the worst Southeast Division in years, and did it by two points (and 18 overtime losses). They were probably the worst team to ever win a division, and all their marginally good players signed to inflated contracts are a year older. The bright spots will come with Jonathan Huberdeau and Jacob Markstrom, but you’d be crazy not to expect a drastic dip in 2013.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Kings

So, if the Los Angeles Kings escaped losing any key free agents last summer, and avoided October’s dread Stanley Cup hangover narrative, what do we have in Hollywood? The same team that went 16-4 in the playoffs last spring? Yup, exactly.

What a terrifying concept for the rest of the Western Conference.

2. St. Louis Blues

The Nashville Predators lost top-pairing defensemen Ryan Suter. Detroit lost Nicklas Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Tomas Holmstrom. Chicago has question marks in net and in regards to the health of Marian Hossa, and Columbus is in the midst of the franchise’s first complete rebuild.

St. Louis? Well, St. Louis stood relatively pat this summer. Why? Because they could.

Last year saw the Blues stop just about everything thrown their way, with Brian Elliott’s improbable league-best .940 save-percentage and Jaroslav Halak’s impressive .926 leading the charge, and their defense was as stout as can be, allowing a league-low 26.7 shots per game. And hey, they weren’t too on the other end of the rink, either.

When outshooting the opposition, the Blues had a lethal .600 winning percentage, a .756 winning percentage when scoring first, and did so with just two 20-goal scorers, David Backes (24) and David Perron (21).

No reason to think that Ken Hitchcock, who went a ridiculous 43-15-11 behind the St. Louis bench last year, won’t be leading this team to their second straight Central Division title.

3. Vancouver Canucks

OK, so Ryan Kesler’s out ‘til at least February, David Booth’s done for six weeks with a groin injury, and Roberto Luongo’s albatross of a contract is stuck on the Vancouver bench, at least for the start of the year.

Yeah, that stinks, sure, but you still have the best one-two punch in hockey skating on the team’s top line in Wondertwins, Daniel and Henrik Sedin.

There will be a dip in the Canucks’ play at the start of the year, but they’re still the premier club of the Northwest Division. Teams like Colorado and Edmonton are simply too young to challenge, while Minnesota’s phase-in to the elite will take more than a 48-game year.

Not even a debate as to who takes this division.

4. Nashville Predators

Is Roman Josi the next Suter? I don’t know enough to say, but he’s still slated to feed the puck to Shea Weber, and he’s a pretty solid defensemen.

Pekka Rinne, a Finnish-born netminder that’s gone 108-56-22 with 18 shutouts in the past three years, is no slouch either.

5. Dallas Stars

Who wins in a shortened season more than the Dallas Stars? OK, don’t answer that, ‘cause the answer to the question can be found in the four spots above, but you know what I mean. With a winger-core based around some veteran additions (Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney) and Brendan Morrow, the Stars’ 48-game run should come with more ups than down. Honestly though, take a look at the Stars’ top nine: Jagr, Whitney, Morrow, Michael Ryder, Derek Roy, Jamie Benn, Cody Eakin, and the vastly underrated Loui Eriksson.

Where’s the rest come for the opposing defense? Your guess is as good as mine.

However, the biggest break for the Stars may come in net with Kari Lehtonen.

The now 29-year-old netminder and battler of numerous injuries throughout his career, notably to his knee, back, and groin, but has been a consistently improving performer in Dallas. Lowering his goals-against-average by .26 and bumping his save-percentage up .003 from year one to year two, year three came with a stellar .22 dip in the goaltender’s goals-against-average (down to a career-best 2.33) and equally impressive .007 bump in the save-percentage (up to another career-best at .921).

With big things expected in the Big D, here’s to hoping that the fans show up.

6. San Jose Sharks

Everything about the San Jose Sharks seems to file under the cliche of “Good, not great.”

Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, Ryan Clowe, Marty Havlat, and Logan Couture make up an incredibly solid top-six forward core. Dan Boyle, Brent Burns, Brad Stuart, and Douglas Murray? A formidable top-four. Antti Niemi? He’ll get the job done.

Status quo at this point. Take that as you may.

7. Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche took a big leap this summer. In more ways than one. Beginning with a busy offseason that included the addition of P.A Parenteau, John Mitchell, and grizzled defensemen Greg Zanon, the Avs’ biggest move came with the shift of captaincy on over from Milan Hejduk to the 20-year-old Gabriel Landeskog.

And my feeling on it? I don’t like it, I love it. Landeskog is a fascinating talent in the sense that he came into the league and played like anything but your average rookie. He can score, he can dish, he can hit, and he can play a strong two-way game. At the highest level! At 20!

With the pieces of the Avs’ future finally in place, namely with a healthy Matt Duchene and (hopefully) signed Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado’s underrated physical skill on the wings with Steve Downie, David Jones, and Jamie McGinn, expect the Avalanche to bury the puck in pretty and grimy ways while Semyon Varlamov finally breaks out as a legitimate ace in the paint.

8. Chicago Blackhawks

This is a team that seems likely to win just about every game 5-4, 6-5, or what have you, but I’m going out on a limb here and saying that Ray Emery is the starter for Game 1 of the Chicago Blackhawks’ first round series. Book it, world. Book it!

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9. Detroit Red Wings

I truly hate comparing one sport to a different one, but have you guys seen the Boston Celtics this year? It’s a glorified old man’s league team that replaced the loss of skill and poise -- be it through free agency or deteriorating skills given their aging roster -- with role-players and bench players, leaving embattled point guard Rajon Rondo as the focus of their game. If Rondo’s off, injured or whatever, the C’s lose, and lose by a lot.

Its relevance isn’t exactly 100% comparable, but I can’t help but feel that it’s similar to what you’ll see this year with the Detroit Red Wings, with the role of Rondo being played by netminder Jimmy Howard.

After years of dominance, it appears as if the Central Division has caught up with Detroit. The Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, and Chicago Blackhawks are all legitimate competition in the now, and that’s something that I think has honestly overwhelmed the Wings as of late.

Factor it all in with the loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and Brad Stuart and mere signing of Jordin Tootoo, and it’s tough to imagine that it’s going to be the usual Wing party in Hockeytown.

While it’s not all bad for a Detroit club that allowed the third fewest shots per game last year and was a supremely strong even-strength club, a middle of the pack special teams unit, and with the role of puck-mover left to -- Kyle Quincey and Ian White? -- shouldn’t lock this club in with those forced to battle for a six, seven, or eight seed for the entire season.
My bet: They end up as the odd man out, probably on the last day of the season.

10. Phoenix Coyotes

Maybe I just do this to look like an idiot at the end of the year, but I’m picking the Phoenix Coyotes to miss the playoffs once again.

Please tell me that you told me so when they eventually make it.

It’s the only way I’ll learn.

11. Minnesota Wild

I get the hype surrounding the Minnesota Wild. Parise! Suter! Rookie superstar Mikael Grandlund! And Jared Spurgeon! Wait, who?

While the future of the Wild is incredibly bright, almost blinding in fact, it’s not going to be zero-to-one hundred in one year. It’s just not.

On the blue-line, the Wild lack depth behind Suter, with Tom Gilbert and Clayton Stoner on the receiving end of top-four minutes, and there simply have to be questions about the Wild’s depth in net in a shortened season with Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding, who was recently diagnosed with M.S.

They’ll get there, I just don’t think it’s this year.

12. Edmonton Oilers

Hey, what do Justin Peters, Cristopher Nilstorp, Matt Hackett, and Jacob Markstrom all have in common? They’re all goaltenders that the Edmonton Oilers will not face on a regular basis in 2013. I’m not sure where it all started, but there’s this crazy theory out there that the Oilers are at a tremendous advantage entering the year because Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Justin Schultz played together for the South Division’s Oklahoma City Barons, the Oilers’ AHL affiliate, currently in fourth place in the division. Out of five. OK then, whatever you say.

The Northwest isn’t the South; The Peters, Nilstorp, and Hackett’s of the world have been replaced by Schneider, Kiprusoff, and Varlamov.

It won’t be easy for the Oilers’ youngsters to score like they did in the minors, and who’s to say that they’re going to keep the puck out of their own net? Outside of an injury-prone defense anchored by Ryan Whitney, the Oilers’ hope rests on the shoulders of Devan Dubnyk, a 2004 first rounder that’s never had a season better than last year’s 20-20-3 campaign that came with a 2.67 goals-against-average.

At 6-foot-5, Dubnyk has the build to establish himself as the club’s backbone, but there’s no debating the fact that Dubnyk will have to prove that he’s capable of handling the Conference’s best, something he simply wasn’t up to last year.

13. Calgary Flames

With back-to-backs, four-game weeks, and everything else on the horizon, a condensed season may actually be the one that kills Miikka Kiprusoff Oregon Trail style. I’m sorry, Calgary, but the man is almost guaranteed to be on the cusp of dying of exhaustion by April. And just who is feeding the Flames’ captain Jarome Iginla the puck in what may be his final season wearing Red-and-Black?

14. Anaheim Ducks

Ondrej Pavelec is to the Winnipeg Jets as Jonas Hiller is to the Anaheim Ducks; He’ll eat minutes, keep the puck out about 91 percent of the time, and lead you to a .500 record -- at best.

15. Columbus Blue Jackets

Losing out on the All-Star game is enough to bum Columbus out, but picking first in this year’s draft should ease that pain. Just a bit, no?

2013 NHL PLAYOFFS

Eastern Conference Final: New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins
Western Conference Final: Los Angeles vs. Nashville Predators
Stanley Cup Final: New York Rangers vs. Los Angeles Kings
Stanley Cup Champion: New York Rangers

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