In 4 days, the puck will finally drop on the 2012-2013 season, and Blues fans can finally get excited once again. Sure, the lockout killed the momentum the team had, and the positive vibe around town has been mostly lost, but with a 48-game sprint to the playoffs, there’s little time to relax – and reasons to be optimistic the team can still build from last year’s success. But what will this year’s roster look line, and what should fans expect to see? Let’s take a look.


FORWARD

-- Returning: David Backes, Patrik Berglund, Matt D’Agostini, Jamie Langenbrunner, Andy McDonald, Scott Nichol, David Perron, Chris Porter, T.J. Oshie, Ryan Reaves, Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Steen, Chris Stewart
-- Arriving: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko
-- Departing: B.J. Crombeen (to Tampa for a 5th round pick), Jason Arnott (at DAL training camp on a tryout)

On paper, this should be a huge upgrade for the Blues, and for the first time in a long time Blues fans should be able to say, “we’ve got 3 scoring lines” as there’s potentially 9 guys who can score 20 or more over an 82-game season. If Tarasenko can step in and play like he did in the KHL this season (31 games, 14-17-31), it will be a huge boost to the Blues offense. Steen (43 games) and McDonald (25 games) need to stay healthy this year; in a 48-game sprint, the Blues can’t afford to lose anyone for an extended stretch. The big question marks come from Stewart and Schwartz; the former needs a rebound from last year’s disappointing 15-goal effort that saw him stick on the 4th line at times and be almost indifferent about it, the latter needs to have a better start than he had this season in the AHL. If D’Agostini can notch close to 10 goals, that would help as well.

Expect Tarasenko to be in the NHL all season long. Schwartz may be a little more tentative, I would not be surprised to see him get shuttled back and forth this season. Porter is probably with the team for the season, as he’d have to clear waivers to make it to Peoria and the Wild are reportedly interested in him. That said, if there’s a weakness in depth on the Blues it could be the amount of grit in the forwards – and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go acquire a couple veterans (one for offense, one for defense) at the deadline.

Potential call-ups: Phil McRae (still a potential 3rd-liner, but needs to step it up in Peoria), Andrew Murray (could fill in short-term on the 4th line), Adam Cracknell (showed he could fill in short-term without much of a problem), Evgeny Grachev (probably still not an NHL’er, but may get another chance), T.J. Hensick (if things really get desperate, even though he’s shown he’s not an NHL’er).


DEFENSE

-- Returning: Ian Cole, Barret Jackman, Alex Pietrangelo, Roman Polak, Kris Russell, Kevin Shattenkirk
-- Arriving: Taylor Chorney, Jeff Woywitka
-- Departing: Carlo Colaiacovo (signed with DET), Kent Huskins

In theory, the Blues look to be set on the blueline. In practice, they could probably stand to upgrade in the top-4 unless someone steps up. Colaiacovo departs for Detroit, where he’ll take his talent and penchant for getting hurt every 17 minutes. Colin White is an invitee to camp, but it would appear he’s going to fight Woywitka and Chorney for the #7 spot. Huskins remains unsigned, and I suspect if the Blues thought he could have helped they would have signed him already – but due to injury, he was passed up on the depth chart and I would guess that the Blues figure his injury history wasn’t worth investing money into him even for one more season. If Pietrangelo can put up a season like last year, the Blues will gladly take it; if he can improve on it, he should clear the mantle for a Norris Trophy this summer. Where the Blues need improvement is from Shattenkirk (who has offense, but defensively looked terrible in the Kings series) and Cole (who it feels like has been a pro 4-6 for years, but in reality is only in his 3rd full pro season), and not to have Jackman logging major minutes to make up for them. If Woywitka and/or Chorney can chip in support, that would be a bonus – and who knows, maybe Woywitka finally gets Blues fans to forget about a certain trade from 2005 as a result.

The real key will be finding a partner for Pietrangelo. Russell will get the first shot at it, but if he doesn’t handle it well expect a revolving door there and for Jackman to get inserted there as a last resort. Again, a trade at the deadline may not be out of the question – but the Blues might also go trolling through the unsigned FA’s to see if anyone makes sense for the short-term.

Potential call-ups: Mark Cundari (probably not NHL ready, but ready enough for a taste), Cade Fairchild (though he’s struggling this season in Peoria).


GOALIES

-- Returning: Brian Elliott, Jaroslav Halak
-- Arriving: none
-- Departing: none

Should Blues fans count on these two guys putting up a GAA of under 2.00 each? Maybe not – especially Elliott with his 1.56 GAA last season. However, if both of them are around 2.15 GAA combined, that should more than enough to give the Blues adequate defensive support to win most games. The real question is who should be the #1 guy coming in: is it Halak (who had the nod until he was injured in the San Jose series), or Elliott (who put up All-Star caliber numbers last year and was arguably left to fend for himself in the L.A. series)?

Potential call-ups: Jake Allen (though he’s struggling yet again in Peoria), Mike McKenna (if Allen continues to struggle and the Blues need a goalie, he’ll get a look).


SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year’s PP: 45 for 269, 16.7% (18th), 3 SHG against
Last year’s PK: 240 for 282, 85.5% (7th), 7 SHG

Right now, the Blues look like they’re going to go with 3 PP units. Yes, that’s right – 3 PP units. Currently, they are:

Unit #1 – Tarasenko, Stewart, McDonald, Steen, Shattenkirk
Unit #2 – Backes, Berglund, Perron, Pietrangelo, Oshie
Unit #3 – Schwartz, Sobotka, D’Agostini, Cole, Russell

They’ll also probably roll most guys through the PK, though the brunt of the duty will probably fall on guys like Backes, Oshie, Perron, Steen, Berglund, Pietrangelo, Jackman, Cole, Sobotka, and perhaps Langenbrunner and Nichol.


CAP SITUATION

Short answer: the Blues are fine. Longer answer: they probably can’t afford to take on a ton of salary, so where they stand with respect to the cap is kind of irrelevant (but for those really interested, CapGeek has them at $53,650,000 (I’m rounding that $1 up) - or with about $10.35 million to spend.


LOOKING BACK AT HISTORY

1. In the past, when the Blues have made a run at the top of the league but fallen short, they’ve struggled mightily in the 1st round of the playoffs before being bounced in the 2nd round, and then regressed significantly the following year. Last year, the Blues changed it up a bit by easily putting away San Jose in 5 before being swept out by the Kings (making last year the 11th time in team history the Blues have lost to the eventual Cup champions). Can they avoid a similar backslide this year?

2. The last time there was a lockout-shortened season, the Blues fought tooth-and-nail with a rising Detroit team before stalling out late, finishing 3rd in the West, and getting knocked off by Vancouver in 7 (including 3 losses at home). Will this time around go better?


EARLY PROJECTION

It’s hard to say that the Blues will continue on the 115-point pace they were playing at under Hitchcock last season – but then you realize they did that with key guys out injured and other guys playing erratically at times. This season, they come in healthy and still unhappy about last year’s playoff exit. It would be easy to say, “they won’t do it again this year” – and maybe they won’t be at that kind of pace. However, when you look around the Central you see a Columbus team that’s still not good (and is weaker with the loss of Nash to the Rangers), a Nashville team that’s arguably weaker with the loss of Suter, and a Detroit team that enters the season without a certain defenseman on the roster for the first time since the 1990-91 season and nagging with questions up and down the roster.

That leaves Chicago, who is basically the same team as last year (for better or for worse). Sure, other teams in the West have improved, and sure that will weigh on the Blues record – but win the Central, and you’re guaranteed a top-3 seed. I like the Blues chances to win the division, especially if they can come out of the first 10 games with a record of 6-3-1 or better and take 2 of 3 from Detroit and at least 1 of 3 from Nashville. From there, … well, you’ll have to wait until my preseason predictions come out on Saturday morning.

***

Last night, Jeremy Rutherford announced on Twitter that the Blues have signed GM Doug Armstrong to a 5-year contract extension. The official press conference started at 11:00am. This should get rid of any concerns that Armstrong might be headed for other locales (Toronto, Chicago, etc.) at the end of this season. The Blues have done a solid job of taking care of their core front office staff since the 2005 lockout, so this really wasn’t a surprise – it was just a matter of time before a deal was done.

The length of the contract is maybe the only surprising thing to me, but it’s not a “wow, I can’t believe he got 5 years” kind of thing – more that I’m surprised Stillman committed to 5 years this early, with long-term finances for the team still uncertain coming out of the lockout. It’s certainly not a knock on Army’s work as GM – he’s done a fantastic job so far in his tenure as Blues GM. Let’s hope this is a sign of stability both in the front-office and off the ice for years to come.

***

Winnipeg has claimed forward Anthony Peluso off waivers. A bit surprising IMO, since Peluso doesn’t really figure to be anything more than an enforcer and a fringe guy – but there was speculation he might indeed get plucked. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winnipeg waive him later this season. It appears that everyone else the Blues put through waivers (Drew Murray, T.J. Hensick, Adam Cracknell, Evgeny Grachev, Brett Sonne, Jay Barriball, Taylor Chorney, Scott Ford, Mike McKenna) has cleared. Chorney, Murray, and Grachev are currently in camp, but can now be assigned at any point in the next 30 days without being subject to waivers again (unless they inexplicably play 10 NHL games between now and then). The rest of the guys mentioned are already in Peoria.

***

Tomorrow: a rant on how the NHL and NHLPA screwed up the CBA (and why it’s not going to be the last time we hear about them having to fix things).

GO BLUES!

Join the Discussion: » 8 Comments » Post New Comment

» Games 6, Blues at Kings - Recap: Losing Still Sucks

» Game 6, Blues at Kings - GDT: Win or Done

» Game 5, Blues/Kings - Recap: When you lose at home, you're in trouble ...

» Game 5, Blues vs. Kings - GDT: Moment of Truth

» Game 4: Blues/Kings - Recap: School Was In Session