I said a few blogs ago I was going to share with you a theory as to a huge Oilers move to occur during the Summer of 2013. The deal for Mark Fistric has me thinking the deal I'm going to suggest is even more possible now. Fistric is a "value-added" D man that is a bargain contract-wise. He'll stick around.

In an effort to drag this trade-rumor out to build the suspense, let's review where the Oilers are cap-wise going into next season:

Players Who Will Be There For Sure in 2013/2014 ($ listed is cap hit for the season):
Taylor Hall - $6mil
Jordan Eberle - $6mil
Nail Yakupov - $3.775mil
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $3.75mil
Ryan Smyth - $2.25mil
Eric Belanger - $1.75mil
Ben Eager - $1.1mil
Jeff Petry - $1.75mil
Nick Schultz - $3.5mil
Justin Schultz - $3.775mil
Devan Dubnyk - $3.5mil
Corey Potter - $775K

Players Who Will Likely Be There 2013/2014 (Re-signing amounts are estimates)
Ladislav Smid - $4mil
Mark Fistric - $1.75mil
Teemu Hartikainen - $1.2mil
Magnus Paajarvi - $1mil
Lennart Petrell - $900K
Anton Lander - $900K
Ryan Jones - $1.5mil
Sam Gagner - $3.5mil

Players Who Will Be Gone in 2013/2014
Shawn Horcoff - $5.5mil
Nikolai Khabibulin - $3.75mil
Sheldon Souray's Buyout Cap Hit - $1.5mil
Andy Sutton - $1.75mil
Darcy Hordichuk - $850K

Players Who Could Be Dealt (at the trade deadline or in the summer)
Ales Hemsky - $5mil
Ryan Whitney - $4mil

So to Summarize, I have the Oilers looking like this for 2013/2014 (for now):

L1: Hartikainen - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
L2: Hall - Gagner - Yakupov
L3: Smyth - Belanger -Jones
L4: Paarjarvi - Lander - Petrell
ex: Eager

D1: ? - J. Schultz
D2: Smid - Petry
D3: N. Schultz - Fistric
ex: Corey Potter

G1: Dubnyk
G2: ?


Are you excited? Have I dragged this out enough yet?

Okay, I'll get to the point: Under this plan, the Oilers would be moving out $22mil of cap. The Oilers entering into 2013/2014 season with the players I've identified as saying would have a cap hit of $52.675mil. In 2013/2014 the cap is set to be $64.3mil. This leaves the Edmonton Oilers with two roster holes to fill and $11.625mil to do it with.


The BLOCKBUSTER Trade is for Shea Weber.

Five Reasons Why This Could Happen:
- Oilers need a true top pairing defenseman, and Weber is a Top 3 D man in the league. A group of six including Weber, Petry, Smid, Justin Schultz, Nick Schultz and Fistric would be one of the best units in the NHL.

- Oilers ownership are one of the few teams that can afford to absorb Weber's ridiculous signing bonuses over the next five seasons. His signing bonuses total $55mil during that time. The Oilers with Weber become a contender, and playoffs can pay off signing bonuses.

- The Oilers have the young assets required to make a move like this. Because of the quality of the youth on the team, the Oilers can afford to move a few high draft picks as well.

- Predators ownership can't afford the signing bonus mess that is Weber (keep in mind this contract wasn't their idea), and like hell if they'll deal him to Philly for putting them in this position. The Preds need to move this contract.

- There is a connection between Oilers owner Daryl Katz and Weber's family, so I'm thinking the "would Shea ever play in Edmonton," question has been discussed.


Obviously, the Oilers need to dump a load of cap to make this possible. Then there's the stack of assets the Oilers would need to offer to get this to happen. Even if Weber is a salary dump for Nashville, he's got plenty of trade value. Teams with money will be lining up for Weber, so the Oilers will need to dig deep to win the competition.

Here's my offer: The Oilers do need to move some salary in the deal, so Ales Hemsky goes. Hemsky won't get this done at all. He's almost more of a throw-in if you're Nashville, who are clearly entering a full rebuild if they move Weber. The Preds need offense, so Hemsky would be welcomed.

The only way this gets done is if the Oilers offer up a top prospect. With the D6 we have including Weber, the player we can make available is superstar prospect Oscar Klefbom. This fills a need for Nashville, who will need D to replace Weber. It also provides a high-end guy...The Preds aren't getting Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Yaks or Schultz, so Klefbom needs to be the one who goes. Sadly (I love this kid).

We still don't have a deal yet. Not even close. We need to throw in Edmonton's 1st round picks in both 2013 and 2014.

So the offer is Hemsky, Klefbom and two firsts...and even at that, I'm not 100% sure it is enough. It would most certainly be the biggest deal made by the Oilers since Gretzky.

As for the missing goalie from the listed roster, all you need is to sign one of the many $1mil - $1.5mil per season UFA's. There's always around 20 back-up level goalies looking for work, so the Oilers won't need to make a deal to bring in anyone.

These two moves would bring the Oilers cap hit to $61.532mil, leaving over $2mil in space to handle roster moves and to allow for a rental at a key position come playoff time. The other thing the cap space would allow for is, if you could dump Eric Belanger's contract ($1.75mil cap hit), the Oilers could upgrade the 3rd line center position with a UFA or through trade.

Weber to the Oilers. It's about time.

Find me on Twitter, please: @rdcloutier

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