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Leafs Fire Burke. Oilers Deal to Follow? |
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Former Toronto Maple Leafs President and GM Brian Burke and Oilers President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe don't like each other much. Something about Dustin Penner, 2008 and offer sheets. There's more to the story, of course, but I won't get into it because this site is PG-13.
As you know, Burke was fired this morning. Why? No one knows. Leafs ownership says it was a management decision based on a difference of opinion on approaches to hockey operations. Translated, Burke did something yesterday to make his bosses really angry, and they decided to turf him. Happens all the time in the "real" world.
The Leafs replaced Burke with his frequent understudy Dave Nonis, which might have ramifications for the Oilers. Nonis and Oilers GM Steve Tambellini go way back. You might even consider them to be friends. There certainly isn't the hatred between Lowe and Nonis that there was between Burke and Lowe.
It makes sense for the Oilers and Leafs to deal for a number of reasons. First, they're both bad teams, and they're moving in opposite directions. The Oilers strategy was to suck hardcore for a number of seasons...Edmonton Journal writer David Staples referred to this as "Scorched Earth" policy. By allowing the team to be terrible for a number of seasons, Oilers management acquire three 1st overall draft picks. It's hard to find elite players outside of the Top 5 in a draft (see draft history...success rates for players taken in the Top 5 are ridiculously high compared to players taken at any other point of a draft).
The Leafs have approached their lean years the same way the Calgary Flames have: In full denial, kicking and screaming while they insist they aren't terrible. There's no other way to describe it. They've made moves and acquired all the reasonable players they could in a desperate attempt to avoid a full rebuild. Some deals have been good (the Lupul and Gardiner one) and some haven't (that Kessel trade). No matter how you slice it, the Leafs refusal to willingly tank has left the organization in no-man's land. Prospect depth on the team is somewhere between fair and bad. The current roster scares no one and is filled with holes. UFA's don't particularly want to go to Toronto because it's impossible to tell what direction the franchise is headed.
The other attractive thing about Oilers/Leafs deals? One is in the East, the other is in the West. Unless they accidentally meet in the Stanley Cup Finals (like that's ever gonna happen), you don't have to worry about former players burning you on a regular basis. If the Oilers were to deal a couple prospects for a proven player, good for the Leafs if those prospects turn out swell.
Perhaps the Leafs have enough talent to avoid going full rebuild. We'll know what Nonis/ownership has in mind if a rumored Roberto Luongo trade occurs. No team going full rebuild would deal for a goalie Roberto's age and with his terrible of a contract. Odd thing is, I wouldn't consider goaltending the biggest issue in TO; its the lack of Top 6 talent, especially at center. There's no star power at all.
And don't go pointing your Kessel at me. He scores goals well, but he's perhaps the least scary forward in the entire NHL. There's a reason the Bruins gave him up...I mean, aside from the two Top 10 draft picks. You could give me three Kessels, and you still can't have my Tyler Seguin.
I don't think Nonis is stupid. Regardless how ownership wants to go, I think the route Nonis will go is to slowly replace saggy veterans with quality prospects. They might force him to make the Luongo deal, but Nonis will learn from Burke's mistakes. Being able to draft Morgan Rielly was the first part of a real solution.
This is where the potential of an Oilers/Leafs deal comes in.
Now that the Oilers have suffered through several horrifying seasons, it's time to start winning. There's too much talent on the Oilers not to start winning. Think back to when the Columbus Blue Jackets drafted Rick Nash. The Jackets never took off because one Nash isn't enough. Thankfully, the Oilers have five or six Nash-level players. Very few teams can compare. What's needed in Edmonton now is roster depth: A Top 4, left pairing defenseman with size. A 3rd line two-way center with size and a physical edge who can replace Shawn Horcoff. A couple of Bottom Six wingers who can bang and who won't lose games. A quality "1B" goalie who is 100 years younger than Nikolai Khabibulin. The Leafs can help the Oilers in almost all of these areas.
I've heard rumblings that the Oilers aren't too interested in making moves now...Bob Stauffer was saying on his show the other day the focus in Edmonton is perhaps more on 2013/2014 than on this season. True. However, the Oilers aren't going to ignore an opportunity if it presents itself. Many, many people believe this is the year the Oilers turn the ship around and get back in the playoffs. The better the roster to start the season, the more this is possible.
So what players are we potentially talking about here?
The Oilers could make available immediately the following guys: Magnus Paajarvi, Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Tobias Rieder, Curtis Hamilton, Ryan Martindale, Linus Omark, David Musil, Colten Teubert, Alex Plante, Theo Peckham, Ben Eager, Olivier Roy, and draft picks like 2nd round picks in 2013. Perhaps even our 1st round pick in 2014. Out of veterans/established players who don't suck, Nick Schultz could be made available, but the Oilers would need to be getting a better defenseman back. Some people would suggest Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky are available, and maybe they are...but the only way they go is if the Oilers get a proven #2 center back...If TO had one of those, they'd be playing him, not dealing him away.
I can't see the Leafs willingly dealing Jake Gardiner or Morgan Rielly. Mikhail Grabovski and Phil Kessel are staying put, and the Oilers have no interest in Joffrey Lupul. I think the Leafs would be dumb to move Tyler Biggs...He's exactly the type of prospect they need to build around.
Let's cut to the chase and talk about players the Oilers could be interested in and who might the Leafs consider parting with for the right return:
- Ben Scrivens, Goaltender. Oh man, if the Oilers could land this guy...He answers all the Dubnyk backup questions, and might be good enough to push Dubnyk in the future. With Luongo likely coming to TO, Scrivens could be available. Sounds like the 'Nucks need a goalie coming back as part of the deal, as Eddie Lack is lacking.
- Dion Phaneuf, Defenseman. Yes, I realize I just made a few of you throw up in your mouth, but hear me out: Whatever happened to the superstar young defenseman named "Phaneuf"? He was so great on the Flames. Can you blame his career for taking a bad turn? First the Flames, and then, the Leafs? Picture big, physical, booming shot Phaneuf on the point with Justin Schultz. You'll warm up to him, I promise. The Oilers have the cap room needed to add him, and he's the big left-handed legit Top 4 defenseman the Oilers crave. It's perfect. The Leafs could likely get two quality prospects and a draft pick from the Oilers for Phaneuf. Whether Dion, the rock star that he is, be willing to play in Edmonton, remains to be seen.
- Carl Gunnarsson, Defenseman. Less expensive than Phaneuf. Not known for his mean, physical play like Phaneuf, either. Gunnersson's contract situation is much nicer than Phaneuf's, he doesn't come with Dion's baggage, and he's a solid left-handed puck-mover. I'm not sure his value in a deal would be less than Phaneuf's in a deal. Actually, I think it's more likely the Leafs would want to hang on to this guy over Phaneuf.
- Cody Franson, Defenseman. TO coaches didn't seem to like this guy much last season, and that's strike one. Felt he didn't practice very hard or take things seriously enough. Strike two is, he's right-handed, not left. Still, he'd upgrade the Oilers D, and he likely could be acquired for a mid-range prospect + a 2nd round pick.
Well, that's four guys I can think of. I could, perhaps, include guys like Kadri or Colborne, but I'm not convinced the Oilers (or any other team) are sold on them as being players who could help the team in the next year or two. I would consider Tyler Bozak, but he's going to Vancouver as part of the Luongo deal, so he's out.
What do you think, fans of the Oilers and Leafs: Is there a deal to be had here? Give me your best offer.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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