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Making the Oilers Fit Under the Cap in 2013/2014

December 29, 2012, 12:24 PM ET [72 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I don't hate Shawn Horcoff.

Honest.

I hate his contract. I hate how he always seems to screw up scoring opportunities. I hate how he seems to not care if the Oilers win or lose. But do I hate Horcoff, the person...or even the player? Not at all. If his contract was $2mil per season, and if he wasn't in a leadership role, I'd absolutely want him as my 3rd line center. It's not Shawn's fault Oilers management threw way too much money at him.

The new CBA will include a "Compliance Buyout", which will allow teams to lose a contract without it counting against the cap. While the cap ceiling will have a false ceiling for 2012/2013 (or can we call it just 2013 now?), the cap ceiling in 2013/2014 will be roughly $60mil. All NHL teams will basically have nine months to get their payrolls under the $60mil mark. Not the easiest thing to do.

The Oilers have a few contracts coming up in 2013/2014 that will complicate things. Keep in mind both Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle's cap hits will move to $6mil per season. It's fair to think the following year, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz's cap hits will also be close to the $6mil per mark. Add in Shawn Horcoff's $5.5mil cap hit, and you have almost $30mil dedicated to only five players. Yikes.

Some people are speculating the Oilers could make a major deal once the lockout has ended, but I looked at the 2013/2014 cap situation with the current roster, and believe they need to maintain status quo. Oh, there will be some changes. There will need to be to make cap.

Here's my salary projection list for 2013/2014:

Forwards - 13 Skaters/$37.925mil Cap Hit
Taylor Hall - $6mil
Jordan Eberle - $6mil
Ales Hemsky - $5mil
Sam Gagner - $3.5mil(estimated)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $3.75mil
Nail Yakupov - $3.775mil
Ryan Smyth - $2.25mil
Ryan Jones - $1.5mil(estimated)
Eric Belanger - $1.75mil
Ben Eager - $1.1mil
Magnus Paajarvi - $1.2mil(est)
Teemu Hartikainen - $1.2mil(est)
Anton Lander - $900k

Defensemen - 7 Skaters/$15.975mil Cap Hit
Jeff Petry - $1.75mil
Justin Schultz - $3.775mil
Ladislav Smid - $4mil(est)
Oscar Klefbom - $1.275mil
Nick Schultz - $3.5mil
Colten Teubert - $900k
Corey Potter - $775k

Goaltenders - 2 Goalies/$4.4mil Cap Hit
Devan Dubnyk - $3.5mil
Yann Danis - $900k(est)

Total Roster Cap Hit: $58.3mil

This is good news/bad news. The good news is obvious: The Oilers can easily fit under the salary cap for the 2013/2014 season. They absolutely must buyout Shawn Horcoff to do this, unless they are willing to part with other players with bigger contracts. Considering Horcoff's age, he's the easiest and most logical player to buyout.

You will notice a few other names are gone. Ryan Whitney becomes a UFA in 2013. His cap hit and injury history makes him a player who won't be re-signed. It's nothing personal with Whitney - He's a good guy and a solid player when he's healthy. The Oilers Top 5 on D will be Justin Schultz, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Oscar Klefbom and Nick Schultz. As much as Nick Schultz is well-paid at $3.5mil per season, ask the players on the Minnesota Wild about this guy. You need a Captain to replace Shawn Horcoff and you don't want to put that much pressure on one of the kids? Nick Schultz is the guy. Players on the Wild were absolutely heartbroken when Nick was dealt. A heart-and-soul guy.

I assume the Oilers would deal Whitney before the trade deadline to acquire some sort of random asset? What would a healthy Whitney be worth to a team on a playoff run? 2nd rounder, maybe? The 2013 draft is deep, and the Oilers already have 2 - 2nd round picks. Why not acquire a 3rd?

Theo Peckham IMO is more or less the same player as Colten Teubert. There's no point in keeping both of them. Since Pecks would likely cost more, he's the guy who goes. The Oilers could easily deal Peckham or Teubert, because they're okay as 6/7 guys, and they don't cost much. The return in a deal won't be anything special (or anything at all).

Of course, the Sheldon Souray buyout comes off the books in 2013/2014, so thank goodness for that. Andy Sutton and Nikolai Khabibulin will also go away. I also have Darcy Hordichuk listed as a player who would not be re-signed. Lennart Petrell could be out of a job because sooner or later Magnus Paajarvi needs to be worked into the roster.

Unfortunately, we still have Eric Belanger and Ben Eager around to annoy us. With Belanger, it's not all bad news: The Oilers minus Horcoff will require a 3rd line center, especially one who can win face-offs. There's definitely a role of him for the next two years. As for Eager, I don't know what to tell you. If there's any buyers out there, he's the first guy to go if you ask me. Completely dislike everything about him. If the Oilers can find a way to dump Eager and keep Petrell, I'd do it.

One last player I will mention is Linus Omark. He won't ever play in Edmonton again, but you could see him moved as soon as this season begins. I'm not sure what you get back for him...a 3rd or 4th round pick, maybe?

So there you have it. There Oilers roster coming out of the lockout should look something like this:

L1: Hemsky - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
L2: Hall - Gagner - Yakupov
L3: Smyth - Belanger - Jones
L4: Eager - Petrell - Hartikainen
extra: Hordichuk

D1: Smid - Petry
D2: Whitney - N. Schultz
D3: J. Schultz - Peckham (or Teubert)
extra: Potter

G1: Dubnyk
G2: Khabibulin

The Oilers roster for 2013/2014 will not change too much:
L1: Hemsky - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
L2: Hall - Gagner - Yakupov
L3: Paajarvi - Lander - Hartikainen
L4: Smyth - Belanger - Jones
extra: Eager

D1: Smid - Petry
D2: J.Schultz - N.Schultz
D3: Klefbom - Teubert
extra: Potter

G1: Dubnyk
G2: Danis
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