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The Oilers, Post-Lockoutalypse |
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There will be NHL hockey this season. There will be a new CBA by the end of the week, there will be a regular season by December 26th...Life is grand again.
As I said before, deal will be long...I said eight years earlier; heard anywhere between five and 10 seasons throughout the day. Apparently, the owners want a longer-term deal than the players, but these sort of details are meaningless for now. The point is, the NHL and NHLPA have finally gotten serious about hammering out a deal, and because of it, they will.
So now that we've concluded an NHL season will be played in 2012/2013, we can start to talk about what will happen with the Oilers post-lockout. From what I understand, the season will be 56 games in length (no pre-season with teams playing other teams within their conference four times and no cross-over games). As I mentioned, the season will begin on December 26th and run up until the end of April. Talk about needing to hit the ground running.
The good news if you're an Oilers fan is over half the team has been playing somewhere. Nail Yakupov, Corey Potter, Ales Hemsky, Ladislav Smid, Lennart Petrell and Sam Gagner are all in Europe. Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz, Teemu Hartikainen and Magnus Paajarvi (if he makes the team) are in the AHL. Unlike most teams that will come into the season relatively cold, the Oilers will be a machine. This could translate into wins, especially for the first six weeks of the season.
I'll go point-form, because it's easier to follow that way. What's gonna happen to the Oilers immediately following the end of the lockout?
- 1st order of business will be buying out a few players if the new CBA contains a buyout or "Amnesty" clause. Someone close to the Oilers (Bob Stauffer) has been saying on his show that he expects there to be an "NBA-style" buyout period. If this occurs, and if the Oilers can rid themselves of a few contracts, they will disappear in this order: Shawn Horcoff, Ben Eager, Eric Belanger.
In pointing out Horcoff is going away, I'm not trying to be mean. Yes, I am mean to him sometimes in my blogs...make jokes and pick on him. It's mostly in fun, because everyone seems to love ripping Horcoff. He's a good player, honest. He's just paid too much, and he isn't the captain of the team anymore. I'm not saying he's a bad guy. It just makes sense for him to go now, as he doesn't fit into the future. Former Oilers Head Coach Tom Renney favored Horcoff; new Head Coach Ralph Krueger doesn't. It's as simple as that.
As far as Eager goes, it's obvious why: It's hard to forecheck when you're behind bars. And Belanger has been a disaster from Day 1, so the sooner the better for him to go.
I'm going to predict the Oilers will lose all three guys somehow. Perhaps buyouts; perhaps trades...whatever. Those three won't be here.
- I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Martin Marincin will make the team. The boy has been a revelation in OKC. It sounds like Andy Sutton's career is over, and the Oilers will need someone to step up. I'd say they need Theo Peckham, but I have serious doubts he'll ever be a regular in the NHL. Colten Teubert is maybe the next most-logical guy...but there's something about Marincin. Oilers Head Coach Ralph Krueger doesn't mind playing kids...feels roster spots should go to the players most deserving. Marincin is more deserving than Peckham and Teubert at this moment. Simply put, he's just a better player.
- So make the Oilers Top 6 Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Hemsky, Gagner and Yakupov. All six are playing right now, so it's going to be showtime from Game 1. I can't wait to watch the Oilers offense...especially on the powerplay...this season.
- Bottom 6, minus Horcoff, Eager and Belanger is more complicated. Ryan Smyth and Ryan Jones will be there. I think Lennart Petrell will be there because he can play center. Darcy Hordichuk will be the 13th forward...Hmmm; it appears we have three spots open. I know what my solution would be, but I'm diseased: I would keep Magnus Paajarvi, Anton Lander and Teemu Hartikainen together as a line. They're playing together now (so they're an immediate option) and they'll give you decent 2-way minutes.
- On D, the situation isn't complicated: Justin Schultz, Nick Schultz, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Ryan Whitney and Martin Marincin are my Top 6. Corey Potter is a reasonable #7 guy. But all of this being said, this group lacks toughness, and that sucks. I so don't want to see Teubert or Peckham in Edmonton this season. The coaches will keep Smid and Petry together. If I was putting the lines together, I would have Whitney and Nick Schultz play as a unit (looked good together last season) and I'd keep Justin Schultz paired with Marincin. Why fix what isn't broken?...at least at the AHL level.
- In goal, and this is the scary part...Devan Dubnyk hasn't been playing, and Nikolai Khabibulin is rehabbing from an injury and might not be ready to play. What you could see is Yann Danis get a number of starts, because he's the only guy in game-shape. If the Oilers have a weakness to start the season, it's definitely in net.
So what does this all mean?
It's so hard to say. Going back to Stauffer, he's been suggesting for some time the Oilers could get off to a hot start and could be a playoff team because so many players will be ready immediately. I want so much to believe this, you have no idea.
The problem is, the Oilers were a 29th place team last season, and success won't happen overnight. As it is, two key players going into the year (Hall and Nuge) are dealing with injuries...if there is any hope of the Oilers being a playoff team this season, they'll need their Top 6 to be tremendous from Day 1.
It's the wild, wild west in Edmonton. This is a roster built for speed and offense, which is great if you loved Oilers circa 1984, but isn't great if you're playing in the modern NHL. Most teams lack the talent to win a gunfight, so that means we'll see our Oilers most nights dancing against The Trap. History shows, sadly, that offensive teams lose more often than not against teams that trap. That's why so many teams play that way: It happens to work. The only way to win against a trapping team is to overpower them, which is easier said than done, especially with an Oilers roster filled with small-to-average sized players.
My prediction for this season? No playoffs, but a much improved all-around team. A .500 record is likely. Justin Schultz and Nail Yakupov will both be in the Calder Trophy hunt. Ales Hemsky will look much improved, and Sam Gagner's points-per-game average will be better than ever. But defensively...Hey, I love 8-6 games when we're the team with the 8. Until the Oilers roster gets bigger, they're going to win as many 8-6 games as they lose.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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