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In today's blogs, I respond to your questions and comments about Shawn Horcoff. Thanks for sending those, btw. I always enjoy hearing from hockey fans.
Q: You said on Twitter that Shawn Horcoff will be gone once the lockout ends. Why?
A: Horcoff doesn't fit with the kids. It wouldn't be so much of a problem if he wasn't (currently, at least) the highest paid player on the team, and wasn't the captain. Contrary to popular belief, Horcs doesn't exactly have the greatest attitude, especially towards the team itself. He works hard and tries hard, but Horcs and management haven't exactly been close since the team gave the guy a huge pile of money only to see his stats sag.
Horcoff is part of the "old guard" and we know what happened to the other members of this group. Ethan Moreau, gone. Sheldon Souray, gone. Those two were eliminated because of their attitudes. From what I understand, the team would have gotten rid of Horcoff at the same time too if it wasn't for his contract.
Q: But considering Horcoff's contract, how can they get rid of him?
A: First thing to understand here is that the season is likely toast and all players are going to lose a year off their deals. Horcoff's "money" year is this season: $6mil actual. He'll earn $4mil and $3mil during the last two years of his contract, making him more affordable to buyout.
Second thing to understand is that ownership is insisting on there being more favorable buyout rules in the new CBA. A number of teams have players they can't get rid of under the old CBA (Montreal with Scott Gomez is an example). It's fairly well known and understood one of the things teams want at the front of a new CBA deal is a period where they can rid themselves of a few ugly deals. For Edmonton, Horcoff will be first to go, followed by Ben Eager and Eric Belanger. All three will be more or less gone for the same reason: They have a bad attitude.
Q: Why do you hate Shawn Horcoff so much?
A: I don't. I just don't think he fits. Horcoff, when he speaks, sounds like the captain of the team. The captain of a team that has finished 30th, 30th and 29th over the last three seasons. One universal trait that players like Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle and Justin Schultz have is a NEED to win. Ever see Hall's face after a loss? Exactly. He hates it. Horcoff seems very comfortable with the situation as it has been in Edmonton. The last thing the captain of the Oilers should be is comfortable. He should be throwing tantrums daily.
The players on the team aren't stupid, and they form their own opinions as to who the actual leaders are. I don't think the kids, who are the heart and soul of this team, look to Horcoff for leadership. I don't really think they look to a guy like Ryan Smyth either. What I'm about to say might sound like a huge insult to guys like Hall and Ebs, but I don't mean it that way: Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Yakupov...they all know they're elite players. They want one of their own to lead them. Horcoff is a blue collar player that had to fight his way onto rosters at every level of his career. He's perhaps the exact opposite of what an "elite" player is.
When Horcoff goes, Taylor Hall will become captain and the team will respond. I don't care what age Hall is; he's exactly the guy you want to lead this team as they move forward.
Q: Okay, so let's say Horcoff's deal is bought out, and the Oilers could re-sign him. Why shouldn't they? He's pretty good as a 3rd line center.
A: Agreed. Like I said, I don't hate Horcoff. He works hard, he's solid defensively and is good at taking face-offs. The problem I have with him sticking around is, I'm not sure you can go backwards when it comes to leadership. Shawn Horcoff is the captain and he sees himself as being the leader. He tries hard to carry himself like a leader, even though it doesn't appear the players around him respond well. How do you take a guy like that, buy him out, give him less money, strip him of a "C", and expect him to still want to be there?
Sometimes the only way to end a relationship is with a clean, full and absolute break. Horcoff is a decent player, and he likely has a few years left. He should look for a veteran team that has a cup chance while he still has time. The Oilers are still a work in progress, and a new core must be established if the team ever hopes to become a contender.
Q: Fine, you find a way to get rid of Horcoff. Who replaces him?
A: The immediate answer is, I'm not sure. Long-term, the answer is likely Anton Lander.
I truly believe the 2012/2013 season is history. Once that happens, as I wrote a few blogs ago, it opens the door for the Oilers to shed themselves of several contracts. Players like Ladislav Smid and Ryan Jones would likely be re-signed. Smid in particular. Players like Horcoff, Belanger, Eager, Khabibulin, Sutton, Potter and Hordichuk will be gone. The only reason I won't put Ryan Smyth's name on this list too is because the fans sort of want him to play out his career here. Otherwise, the Oilers might make a deal or two, or sign a UFA to fill some roster holes. But most of the holes will be filled by promotion from within.
The more I see the Oklahoma City Barons of the AHL play, the more I think the Oilers 3rd line post-lockout will be Anton Lander, Magnus Paajarvi and Teemu Hartikainen. You could see a situation where Ryan Smyth and Ryan Jones are on the 4th line with either Lennart Petrell or Chris Vandevelde at center. The Top 6 would be some combination of Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky. All things considered, the Oilers can pretty much blow up their current Bottom 6 without missing a beat.
In case you're wondering, Hemksy is playing some swell hockey in Europe this season. He looked pretty good for a few games last season on a line with Nuge and Eberle. I think, for now at least, management has room and a willingness to keep Hemsky, and to play him in the Top 6.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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