Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.
With CBA optimism growing and rumors of a regular season coming down the pike, it feels rather appropriate to get back into actual hockey talk. And, nothing says hockey talk like a bunch of bloggers and fans pontificating about how overrated Player X and Player Y are in the National Hockey League.
This past season,
Sports Illustrated ran a column on the fifteen most overrated players in the league, as voted on by 161 NHL peers. Their findings were as follows:
1. Dion Phaneuf, Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
3. Scott Gomez, Montreal Canadiens
4. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks
5. Dany Heatley, Minnesota Wild
6. Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey Devils
7. Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning
8. Jay Bouwmeester, Calgary Flames
9. Ryan Kesler, Vancouver Canucks
10. Mike Komisarek, Toronto Maple Leafs
11. Chris Pronger, Philadelphia Flyers
12. Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames
13. Alexander Semin, Washington Capitals/Carolina Hurricanes
14. Olli Jokinen, Calgary Flames/Winnipeg Jets
15. Ed Jovanovski, Florida Panthers
Like most of these player polls, I find that the votes often times come reactively -- production slows,
then the player is deemed as overrated. With the lack of production, one would suspect that assumed value of the player would drop-off accordingly, and that the overrated label wouldn't necessarily apply.
Not to mention that a few of these names -- Scott Gomez and Mike Komisarek immediately jump off of the page -- haven't had value relative to their contracts in years. I'm not sure who is rating either of these players well ahead of the curve.
In the comments section below, please comment on what player or players you find to be overrated heading into the 2012-2013 season. I've wrote a bit on the matter and will share it below.
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When talking about overrated players, I often look at those whose perceived value exceeds actual value at the present time. Often, these players are the ones who recently put together a statistically-impressive season -- one that probably isn't sustainable.
Again, that's just my opinion on the matter. That's why I'll throw my hat in the ring for two names -- Teddy Purcell of the Tampa Bay Lightning, and Rich Peverley of the Boston Bruins. Two solid players who had incredible seasons last year -- season I don't necessarily find sustainable. They may not be highly rated compared to some of the elite names above, but I argue that how they're perceived right now to the hockey fan base isn't necessarily indicative of true skill.
Purcell and Peverley actually have quite a bit in common -- the height/weight are comparable, the skill sets are similar, and the talent has been noticeable for years. Last season, though, Purcell and Peverley exploded in the points department, with Purcell racking up an impressive 24G/41 season in 81 GP, and Peverley going 11G/31A in 57 GP -- an average of 0.78 PPG, comparable to that of talents in Alexander Ovechkin, Patrick Marleau, Patrice Bergeron, and Joe Pavelski.
Let's look at Purcell first. Obviously, his role in the up-tempo Tampa Bay Lightning attack works, but are his numbers indicative of his actual skill? The first thing you'll notice is that the Tampa Bay coaching staff continually paired Purcell with arguably the best player in the world, Steven Stamkos. That tends to help the point totals a bit. Second, if you look at Purcell's on-ice shooting percentage, it's a remarkable 11.87% -- fifth highest in the National Hockey League. Whenever Purcell was on the ice, it appears that great things happened more often than not.
Some could rationally argue that Purcell could be coming into his prime at age twenty-seven. It's certainly possible. The funny thing about Purcell, though, is I actually like him quite a bit as a player. He drives possession, played well away from Steven Stamkos at times last year(i.e., not dependent on Stamkos), and does have the kind of drive and finish you need from a top-six player.
The reason I'd argue he may be overrated? The NHL is obsessed with point totals, and may get caught up in Purcell's lofty splits from last year. Talented player he is, but a sixty-five point man? The jury's still out on that.
Peverley's an interesting case. Unlike Purcell(a player I do like), I'm not a major fan of Peverley's game. Last year, Peverley was a 0.74 PPG player with the Boston Bruins -- a number I think the organization takes every time at a comfortable $3.25M salary.
The problem? Unlike almost every other player on that absurdly-dominant Boston Bruins team at five-on-five play, Peverley (a) didn't really drive possession; yet (b) managed to somehow make a positive-statistical impact with respect to goals and/or assists when skating his 16:54 per game.
Like Purcell, Peverley benefited heavily from an extremely-high 10.71 on-ice shooting percentage. But, his on-ice shooting percentage against -- .949, 7th best among qualified NHL'ers -- was even more ridiculous. His most common linemate, Chris Kelly, threw up similar peripherals.
Boston was so dominant last year(and, in years prior) because of their even-strength dominance and ability to score with virtually every line. Last year was hardly different, although the possession statistics really widened between the top and bottom-six. Seguin, Bergeron, Marchand, Chara, Lucic -- these guys drove possession night-in and night-out, and the points came deservedly. Peverley and Kelly?
More south than north relative to the team's play, yet the points still somehow manifested.
Peverley and Kelly are fantastic two-way talents, but I suspect that neither will be capable of piecing together the same PPG averages they did one year ago. The shutdown defense, though, isn't going anywhere.
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So, what players around the league do you find overrated heading into the 2012-2013 season? Fire 'em off in the comments section.
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Thanks!
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