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Jets or Leafs? Who makes Playoffs First?

October 31, 2012, 3:32 PM ET [39 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
With two key moves between the the two teams this off-season, are the Leafs or Jets better positioned to make the post season before the other?

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If and when the next NHL season arrives the Winnipeg Jets and the Toronto Maple Leafs are two teams looking to defy recent history and make a push for the post season. Both teams fell short in their respective attempts last season and for various reasons but more importantly they each have ground to make up to hit the top eight by the end of the season, who is likely to succeed, the Jets or Leafs?

The Leafs have been in a perennial rebuilding mode although one would be hard pressed to find that admission from any MLSE executive particularly Brian Burke. The Jets on the other seem to have the advantage of a new lease on life because of their relocation from Atlanta to Winnipeg. Don’t be fooled, the Jets’ only sign of post-season play was a four game sweep in 2007. The cost was future stability when, Tkachuk was traded to the Atlanta Thrashers for Glen Metropolit, a 1st round pick in 2007, a 3rd round pick in 2007 and a 2nd round pick in 2008.

Herein lies another similarity between the two clubs history, the high priced gamble, which may or may not have delayed progress in reaching the post season. To acquire Tkachuk the Jets (Thrashers) traded picks which became Mikael Backlund, third rounder Brent Sonne in 2007 along with Philips McRae in 2008.

In hindsight it’s not a huge cost but those were other team’s draft picks not necessarily the ones the Thrashers would have made had they retained the picks.

Does the Kessel trade need revisiting for Leafs fans? Surely one of the most divisive deals in recent Leafs history and one that has yet to pay off the way Brian Burke imagined it would by now, even if he won’t admit it.

The pointing out of similarities is only to see why these teams should be looked at together. While they are conference rivals, for how much longer is anyone’s guess, they do not share much else in common other than an under performing recent history. It begs the question, who makes the post season first?

Winnipeg 84 Toronto 80 93
Toronto 85 Winnipeg 80 94
Winnipeg 83 Toronto 74 89
Toronto 81 Winnipeg 76 94
Toronto 83 Winnipeg 76 95
Winnipeg 97 Toronto 91 93
Toronto 90 Winnipeg 90 93

The above numbers are the point totals for each team in descending order back to the post-lockout season. The number on the right is the point total which would have put either team in sole possession of 8th place. It’s a point of reference nothing more.
What happens next?
The big move for the Maple Leafs this past season was swapping out Luke Schenn for James Van Reimsdyk. In a move to try and drive a team which finished:
10th overall in goals per game
10th in PP,
21st in shots per game
12 in 5v5 goals scored
11th in power play goals
18 in total PP minutes
24th in winning % when scoring first
4th in face off %
the Leafs’ brain trust moved what some would call a under-performing defenseman for a proven yet still developing scoring winger/centre. I put winger/centre as there has been speculation that JVR may be asked or required to perform the second role.

The Winnipeg Jets did nearly nothing in terms of changing their roster in the dramatic fashion as the Leafs did. While Toronto moved for a change through a certain addition at forward via subtraction on defense, the Jets opted for a more status quo approach.
The key moves were the two-year deal for Olli Jokinen and one-year deal for Alex Ponikarovsky. One could argue that the retention of under appreciated Kyle Wellwood was also a move and certainly the disbandment of the fan-loved GST line of Glass, Slater and Thorburn was as well. However not to the extent of taking the last high draft pick which had developed into a regular roster player and trading him as Toronto did.

The elements of pressure and drama certainly side with the Leafs this off-season as it almost certainly will versus a market the size of Winnipeg. What about the Jets, where do they fit in key offensive categories as that is where their changes came and hopefully have the most impact.

12th in goals per game
12th in PP
13th in shots per game
11th in 5v5 goals scored
16th in PP goals
25th in total PP minutes
17th in Winnipeg % when scoring first
21st in face off %

It is a very similar pattern to the Leafs when looking at the same statistics as neither team excelled other than FO % and neither were truly awful in more than one category.

What about defensive statistics?

The Leafs measured up as follows:

29th in goals against per game
28th in PK %
29th in goals against 5v5
23rd in shots against per game
20th for winning % when trailing first

The Jets were:

26th in goals against per game
24th in PK%
23rd in goals against 5v5
15th in shots against per game
22nd for winning % when trailing first

So which team has positioned itself better to bust out of one post-season appearance between 14 attempts?

When looking at Quality of Competition stats JVR ranks near the bottom of Philadelphia’s team last year only Lilja and Brayden Schenn were ranked lower. Again with Quality of Teammate JVR does not rank near the top for the Flyers. However in points per 60 mins JVR ranks up there for the Flyers and happening during an injury plagued season. One stat that stands out to me is the saves for per 60 minutes as JVR lead the team and was fourth in goals against per 60 minutes.

For the Jets big acquisition of Jokinen his stats reveal a player who may have excelled despite being on a far inferior team. He was fourth on the team for his Corsi quality of competition he faced yet he played with some of the worst quality of teammates related to corsi. That being said Calgary player stats in the category are poor in general.

Where I’m going with this analysis is not that either of these two signings are going to be the definitive moves which determine the fate of either team’s season (should it happen at all) but the approach taken.
The Jets appear to be the better, albeit only slightly, team when it comes to defensive stats, yet their change seems to be the one to have a potentially greater impact to improve their defensive play and results.

The Jets gave up nothing but cap space to acquire Jokinen but the Leafs gave up a player in one area they needed to drastically improve in, defense. Take out the goaltending discussion; we’re not going there as neither team has a reason to tout itself between the pipes.
What I do see are the Jets making a move that has far more trickle down effect on their roster where the Leafs appear to be filling a need but not addressing another. The Jokinen signing was a key move in restructuring three of the Jets lines, and adding Ponikarovsky should further support the new structure. For a team that had a dubious third line while almost using a turnstile approach to the second and fourth line in regards to personnel last season, the Jets have a far more stable look.

The Leafs also look stable in their forward core but did they address their shortcomings with JVR? I’m not so sure as defensively there seems to be issues that remain unresolved. Losing Schenn is not devastating but not being able to improve in that position and group could be looked as a big gamble with the ‘addition by subtraction, theory.

We’re locked out of hockey right now so all this is only ‘on paper’ but if I was a rival GM of the two teams I would be better on an uptake for the Jets before the Leafs. It’s too bad we don’t have a month of data to look at to see if I’m right, or wrong.


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