When the Dallas Stars selected Jamie Oleksiak with the 11th overall pick of the 2011 Draft, there were some who wondered aloud how much of the towering defenseman's boundless potential would ever be reached. That still remains to be seen in the years to come.
Even if parts of his game are still a bit raw as he enters the pro ranks in 2012-13, one could hardly the fault Dallas for rolling the dice on a player who has the potential to develop over time into a franchise defenseman. All of the tools are in place for him to become, at bare minimum, a solid NHL starter. If Dallas ends up hitting a home run with his development, he could be a bonafide top pairing blueliner.
Oleksiak skates very well (especially for a 6-foot-7, 240-pound player). He is already pretty good in his own end of the ice, although he'll have to go through the pro-level learning curve that all young defensemen experience. Although his offensive game is still raw, he shoots hard and makes a good first pass out of the zone on breakouts. It may take a few years, but there is reason for genuine optimism that Oleksiak can become a well above-average two-way defenseman in the pro.
It is easy to forget nowadays how raw Chara was when in his first few years. It took quite a few years for him to turn his potential into performance at both ends of the ice. That was especially true on the offensive side of the blueline. It wasn't until Chara was 24 or 25 that he gained offensive confidence and became the power play threat that he is today.Sheldon Souray didn't become an offensive defenseman until his late 20s.
I see no reason why, with his combination of skills, that Oleksiak cannot emerge as an offensive threat from the blueline by the time he's in his mid-20s. I just don't think it'll happen as quickly for him in the NHL as it has for, say, Tyler Myers.
I also don't expect Oleksiak to be a crushing hitter, at least not on a regular basis. Oleksiak isn't afraid of physical play but he's not going to be a 6-foot-7 version of Mark Fistric when it comes to actively seeking out big hits. It's also not really part of Oleksiak's style to be like Chris Pronger or Chara in terms of trying to intimidate opponents through a combination of his size and an active mean streak.
Without question, Oleksiak will benefit from some AHL time in Austin. Although he's still eligible for junior hockey (he turns 20 in December), Oleksiak is ready for the next step in his development. The bigger issue is how quickly he'll come along at the American Hockey League level and how soon the Stars will be tempted to call him up to the big club.
Oleksiak may not take pro hockey by storm this season or even for a few years. But I think he's a got a pretty good chance within the next four or five years to be one of those players who comes out on the positive end of those ever-popular "Team X drafted Player A but could have chosen Player B" comparisons.
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