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Could These Players be 2013 Offer Sheet Candidates?

July 30, 2012, 9:05 AM ET [146 Comments]
Eklund
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When the Nashville Predators matched the Philadelphia Flyers' offer sheet to Shea Weber last week, there were several other teams that privately breathed a huge sigh of relief.

It wasn't for hockey reasons. Rather, it was because these other teams are either located in secondary NHL markets or because they have had recent or semi-recent ownership question marks. The question is whether the Predators' retention of Weber actually can be a reprieve for other teams in a similar position.

Had Philadelphia been successful with its ultra-frontloaded offer sheet to Weber -- which was designed solely to force the Predators' ownership either to band together and pay for the contract from their own wealth or to let the player go strictly in the name of team budget -- some of these other teams could have been more vulnerable to their own restricted free agents being offer sheeted come next summer.

Unfortunately, in and of itself, I don't think the Weber situation is a long-term reprieve. Not unless it's accompanied by significant CBA change before the next off-season.

Two names to file away for next summer: Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Phoenix Coyotes). Both fast-rising stars are set to finish their entry-level contracts next season and can become restricted free agents in the summer of 2013, barring contract extensions.

Unless the next NHL collective bargaining agreement with the NHLPA a) significantly reduces teams' ability to frontload contracts in cap hit calculations, and b) sets a maximum contract length, Pietrangelo and Ekman-Larsson are exactly the sorts of players who will prime targets for future offer sheets.

In the case of the Blues and Pietrangelo, the St. Louis team's new ownership structure is rather similar to Nashville's. There is a group of 16 locally-based part-owners, led by Tom Stillman. There is no doubt that one of the ownership group's first big moves is likely to be offering Pietrangelo a hefty long-term extension. He is already right on the brink of being a serious Norris Trophy contender, and there is no question whatsoever that the young defenseman is the real deal.

The outcome of the Weber offer sheet plays in the Blues' favor at this point, even prior to the end of the current CBA. Nevertheless, when a player of Pietrangelo's franchise defenseman caliber is involved, it would not be a surprise to see a club like Philadelphia or Toronto challenge the Blues' ownership's ability to step up financially next summer the way that Nashville just did.

Barring a CBA change to curb front-loading and ultra long-term deals, Pietrangelo could make more money much quicker if he signs an offer sheet as an RFA next summer rather than simply negotiating a (still-handsome but less lucrative) new contract with the Blues.

If the current CBA contracting rules were to remain intact, would anyone really be all that shocked if some other team next summer offered a 23-year-old Pietrangelo a heavily frontloaded 20-year contract worth in excess of $200 million? He won't get anything close to that with an internal contract extension during his RFA years, but if the Blues would be put in the same position the Predators were, the new owners would be forced to match.

Meanwhile, out in Phoenix, the NHL-owned Coyotes are even more vulnerable to an Ekman-Larsson offer sheet next summer unless the sale to Greg Jamison's group -- which is currently hitting all sorts of snags, including yesterday's revelation that the group is still about $20 million short of the necessary funds to complete its purchase -- is completed in expeditious fashion.

Even if the next CBA only slightly weakens other teams' ability to offer the sorts of contracts we've seen this summer, the status quo Coyotes are in no shape to get too creative to retain Ekman-Larsson if it were to come to matching an offer sheet. The 21-year-old may not be at the same level Pietrangelo is right now. Nevertheless, there's little doubt that he, too, stands to have a slew of All-Star caliber seasons ahead of him if he stays healthy and continues developing at the same rate he did from his first to second seasons in the NHL.

At any rate, the Weber offer sheet is still causing rumblings around the NHL a week after it was matched. Many clubs around the league (both small-market and big-market) are already trying to lock up their top young players -- especially standout defensemen, because they are the most prized commodity along with top-line centers -- in long-term deals. Just to cite one example, there are already rumblings in Chicago about trying to extend Nick Leddy ahead of his reaching RFA status next summer.

The Weber offer sheet opened up a huge can of worms with the CBA. It probably serves to increase the NHL side's negotiating insistence on much stricter contract-term limits within the CBA's confines. The league wants to discourage future predatory (no pun intended) offer sheets as much as possible. Nevertheless, teams are already talking long-term retention strategy for their top young offer-sheet eligible players under a variety of different CBA scenarios.

Could Pietrangelo and/or Ekman-Larsson be next year's Webers? I suspect the next CBA will go a long way toward dissuading offer sheets to these players, but it would still be wise of St. Louis and Phoenix to take proactive steps now to avoid an attack from the flank side come next summer.
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