The Shea Weber situation following immediately on the heels of the huge, front-loaded deals for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter have all kinds of implications for the NHL. Ironically, the most notable effect could well be that they cause it never to happen again. All 3 situations which circumvented the intent but not the writing of the previous CBA probably assure that the loophole of front-loading contracts to boost value will be ruled out. I guess we will see on that hopefully within 2 months.

But even if the effects are lessened by new rules in a new CBA, the summer of Parise/Suter/Weber has clear implications for a small market team like the Carolina Hurricanes. I see 2 as most significant. The first is an indirect impact “building a team” strategy. The second is very direct and has immediate tactical ramifications specifically for Jeff Skinner.

Even if lessened by new CBA rules, the growing NHL revenue and therefore salary cap is giving big market teams an extra $5-6M/year to spend on new players. This combined with players coming off the books means that the demand (unused salary cap $ that the big market teams want to use up) is far greater than the supply (big name, $5-8M players available any given summer). This summer there were at least 10 teams who would have ponied up a small fortune pretty similar to what Minnesota offered for Parise and Suter. But most summers including this one there are only a handful of such players available. As long as the league revenue keeps rising rapidly and the salary cap is tied to it, there will continue to be a boat load of money bidding for not enough high end players which makes it very hard both $-wise and just “the players get to choose whatever they want”-wise to get these players. This situation places an even greater emphasis on developing players from within the organization and through the draft. These players you get reasonable control over keeping them even if it is via matching an offer sheet. And though the current system and offer sheets driven by lack of supply of high-end UFAs is decreasing the amount, you do still get discounts on non-UFA players. If the owners get their way (or even a compromise on it) entry level contracts will be longer and UFA age even older. This means that the benefits earned by developing draft picks will be even greater and the pull of high-end UFAs to be bid on even thinner.

The other more direct ramification of the Weber situation is Jeff Skinner. He is a restricted free agent next summer. If he plays at a similar level to previous years, his RFA cost is loosely in the $2.8-$4.0M/year range. As reference points you have a number of recent RFA signings. Purcell got full value after a huge year at $4.5M/year. Oshie similarly collected $4.2M/year. In the slightly less category you get Kulemin at $2.8M/year and Gagner at $3.2M. Maybe the most interesting comparison is Claude Giroux who signed his last RFA deal at $3.8M right before he totally broke out and played his way into a different category. So my wild guess for Skinner’s fair price next year coming off another good but not Giroux-good season is $3.5-3.8M. I call it 3 years for $10.5-11.0M. But what if the lot of UFAs next summer is not that great? And what if the big bidders who all bid real high and still lost year (and there are many of them) try to jump the gun on the UFA bidding to make sure they get to spend their money this time around? Then if Jeff Skinner is coming off a 60-point season (not that different than Parise) then how much is Jeff Skinner worth? $5M/year seems like a bargain compared to the $8M/year bidding wars. Maybe even $6M if you throw in a bonus for Skinner’s marketability. And what if the new CBA does not do away with the crazy front-loading? Would Canes GM Jim Rutherford get the go ahead to match a crazy 6-year, $36M contract that was $11M, $11M, $11M, $1M, $1M, $1M?

There is always risk in signing a player who is already under contract early. But I think the risk of not signing Jeff Skinner now is even greater. The time is now for Rutherford to get to work before the hungry vultures with wads of cash start circling next summer.

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Go Canes!

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