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O'Reilly Factor

July 17, 2012, 10:35 PM ET [192 Comments]
GARTH'S CORNER
NHL news by Garth • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Like Tyler Ennis is in Buffalo, Ryan O'Reilly is an RFA in Denver.

Did you know that O'Reilly is Colorado's only unsigned player for next season? Weird, isn't it? It can be argued that Ryan O'Reilly is the best player on the Avs roster because of his carbon copy similarities to Jonathon Toews. He's a big, tough, centreman who can win draws, plays superbly on special teams, and defends all 200 feet by 85 feet of the ice rink with amazing dexterity for a man his age. The kid is 21 and plays like he's a ten year vet. Whats more, he's got 20-25 goals in his twig annually. What would you be willing to pay a player of O'Reilly's ilk?





O'Reilly's entry level deal has expired and now he and his agent are waiting patiently for the Avs to re-sign him. On its surface, seems like a two foot tap-in putt, right?



Not so fast. Something happened last week that may be causing a tremor in the Rockies. Matt Duchene, O'Reilly's team mate took a hometown haircut to stay in Denver. Two years and $7 million for a 21 year old, 40+ goal producer, with 250 NHL games in his equipment bag? I'll admit that I was taken aback when I heard the brevity of Duchene's term and his team-friendly $3.5 million annual cap hit. Some are saying that Duchene left money on the table. If its true, how can that help O'Reilly in his quest to maximize his leverage in his quest for a new long term deal with an annual cap hit that will be north of $3.5 large?

Duchene's deal sets the market in Denver. Duchene will be used as a comparable to O'Reilly. Sucks for O'Reilly.

Young centres like Duchene, Tavares, and Hodgson to name a few don't grow on trees. Thats why GMs lock them up long term when given the opportunity to do so.

Adrian Dater of the Denver Post recently wondered if Matt Duchene's new deal may have usurped whatever leverage that O'Reilly had with the team. Its possible.

Thus, there's no urgency to sign O'Reilly. It must be noted that its only mid-July. Training camps won't open for 60 days, or more, if there is another work stoppage due to the new collective bargaining agreemnent.

Both Duchene and O'Reilly came into the NHL at the same time. Each have similar numbers, though it can be argued that O'Reilly is the more well-rounded and complete pivot, while Duchene is the sniper. Their ELCs had expired at the same time. Duchene was the third overall pick in the 2009 NHL Draft, while O'Reilly was the thirty third overall pick (second round) that same year.

Statistically speaking, Duchene had the better start to his Avs career, scoring more points than O'Reilly in his first two seasons. Then, last season, while Duchene was nursing injuries, that would sabotage his season, O'Reilly established himself as a force and created quite an impressive brand name for himself by virtue of his rugged two way game.





One asks:

How is it that the Avs are taking their sweet old time re-signing O'Reilly? How does the guy go from being your best player to your last player to sign, all in one fell swoop?


Perhaps the Sabres should make an inquiry as to the status of O'Reilly. I'd be asking the obvious question of the Avs front office: how do they value O'Reilly? I'd also be asking the Avs if he's available for a trade to Buffalo.


The Avs have their two top centres, Stastny and Duchene locked up right now. O'Reilly sits and waits for his next contract. Eventually, O'Reilly will be re-signed. Or, will he? Perhaps the Avs are content to move forward with Stastny and Duchene as their one-two punch down the middle, and, perhaps they are more interested in trading O'Reilly for a high scoring winger to compliment the amazing Gabriel Landeskog, like say Jason Pominville or Bobby Ryan. Buffalo can include a veteran puck-moving, mobile D like Sekera or Leopold to sweeten a deal. The Avs have centre prospect Joey Hishon on the come, and I'm told that he may be making the Avs squad this season.

Hishon played his ass off and was a force for the Owen Sound Attack for the past four seasons. He's NHL ready. Perhaps the Avs want to plug-n-play Hishon and trade O'Reilly. Hishon was the 17th overall pick in the 2010 NHL Draft. He's a magician with the puck on his stick as he can score and can create plays in traffic and out of the corner for his linies. Hishon scored 110 regular season goals and added 9 playoff goals in his four years at Owen Sound. He also added 145 assists in regular season play.

Here's Hishon's body of work from his junior hockey career at Owen Sound:

214 regular season games played. 110 goals. 144 assists. 254 regular season points. 1.19 points per game. 162 PIMs. +16 . 26 playoff games. 9 goals. 22 assists. 31 points. 1.19 points per game. 38 PIMs. +4.

Hishon is a beast, and he needs to play in the NHL this season.





So I ask you, are you as interested in Ryan O'Reilly as I have been for the past two seasons?





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T.J. Brennan has been an intriguing prospect for the Sabres for the past four seasons. Ive always compared TJ's game to that of Brian Campbell. The kid's got wheels, has a heavy-accurate shot, and isn't afraid to stick his face in a pile of trouble. Today, Darcy Regier re-upped the Jersey native to a contract extension.


Brennan scored 16 goals and added 14 assists in Rochester last season.





Brennan is Buffalo's 9th Dman. The Ott trade brought Pardy into the fold, thus dropping Brennan a run. Here's how Buffalo's top six looks right now:

Myers
Ehrhoff
Regehr
Leopold
Sekera
Weber
Pardy
McNabb

I smell a trade coming. Buffalo have too many D and they need a skilled forward, be it a centre or winger, who can score.

Trading Sekera or Leopold right now makes a lot of sense to me.



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Regier also dipped into the toughness pool and pulled out badass, Nick Tarnasky. The 6'2 225 pound tough guy played in the KHL last season.

Tarnasky earned 173 PIMs in the KHL last season.

He's the perfect guy to call-up and battle Lucic and the Bruins.






The Sabres address a HUGE area of concern from last season in adding bar fighters Ott, Scott, and now BizTarnasty. Marcus Foligno and Cody McCormick like to chuck the knocks, too.

Tarnasky and Mancari will add a ton of sandpaper and grit to the Rochester lineup.

If this signing is not a big F-you to Boston, I don't know what is.






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Here's the official release from the team:


Buffalo Sabres General Manager Darcy Regier today announced that the team has agreed to terms with unrestricted free agent forward Nick Tarnasky and defenseman TJ Brennan on one-year contracts.

Tarnasky (6’2”, 224 lbs., 11/25/84) joins the Sabres after spending a season in the Kontinental Hockey League playing for Vityaz Chekov. In one KHL season, Tarnasky recorded 12 points (5+7) and 173 penalty minutes in 36 games. Tarnasky, a native of Rocky Mountain House, Alberta, was drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 9th round (287th overall) of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. In parts of five NHL seasons, Tarnasky has compiled 30 points (13+17) and 297 penalty minutes in 245 games with Tampa Bay, Nashville and Florida.

Brennan (6’1”, 214 lbs., 4/3/89) was Buffalo’s second-round pick (31st overall) in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft. After spending the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons with the Portland Pirates (AHL), Brennan scored a goal in his NHL debut on Nov. 23, 2011 vs. Boston. The Willingboro, New Jersey native appeared in 11 games for the Sabres in 2011-12.

Brennan finished the 2011-12 season with 30 points (16+14) and 39 penalty minutes in Rochester. His 16 AHL goals were a career high and led all Amerks defensemen, despite appearing in only 52 games for the Americans.


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