Follow me on Twitter: @JTQ_1
Join the conversation on Facebook! Like the Hockeybuzz – Blues Page
-
The St. Louis Blues have been working on a new contract with restricted free agent forward TJ Oshie throughout the offseason, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement. Word Tuesday is that they’re both in route to Toronto in advance of Friday’s potential arbitration hearing. Continued negotiations are on the possible as preparations for the inevitable outcome if deal can’t be struck in the remaining three days gets underway.
Assuming the current state of affairs holds out an independent arbitrator will hear the case and determine the total compensation, term and salary. Since Oshie elected for arbitration, he was one of 16 to do so on July 5th, the Blues must advise in advance if they want a one or two year contract. The arbitrator will listen to arguments from the player and the team and their respective proposals. Since the length of the deal is locked down to one of two options, the focal point will likely be salary. Either side could “win” as their requested salary could be selected or the arbitrator may choose an amount between the two.
A messy situation can be avoided if differences can be reconciled quickly and a contract signed before Friday. Neither party really wants to travel the arbitration path since it’s known to fracture relationships. Given how hard Oshie worked to grow on and off the ice in to the type of professional the franchise needs him to be based upon management’s 2011 ultimatum (aka one year, $2.35 million “Prove Me” contract) to do so, the mutual desire for Oshie to remain part of the family is obvious. For General Manager Doug Armstrong’s part, he’s confirmed that as much as possible by indicating from the outset of the offseason that the goal is to sign the former North Dakota standout and 2005 1st round draft pick long term.
So what has caused the delay?
As always, it’s about the money.
Reports from Jeremy Rutherford and Andy Strickland today provide the framework to understand what is happening.
As Rutherford states, the term being discussed ranges from four to six years, but quotes Armstrong saying that they “just couldn’t find a compensation level that we were comfortable with and obviously he was comfortable with”.
Strickland adds further clarity to the issue by writing that Oshie’s UFA years, which is anything beyond the 2013-14 season per the current CBA, “appears to be the challenge”. He also suggests that the Blues are using captain David Backes’ $4.5 million AAV as an “internal cap” for the amount they are willing to pay Oshie on average per season.
Subjectively using David Perron’s 4 year, $15.25 million contract -- $3.8 million AAV -- as a low point and Backes’ $4.5 million average as the high end, the offer on the table appears to stand at four, five or six years with an AAV around $4.0 million.
Quite a healthy payday for a 25 year old who has just one season with a critical positive impact on a successful team -- career highs in goals (19) and points (54, tied for team lead with Backes) – and no goals in 13 playoff games. Yet, to take the money and run significantly cuts it to his future earning potential. While no one knows to what heights his offensive game can hit, Oshie certainly has the talent to consistently hit the 25 goal and 60 point marks. Combine that with his ability to gobble up the toughest even strength minutes like Kobayashi and Chestnut inhale hotdogs and kill penalties while still contributing on the power play would make him a hot commodity on the open market. If Jordan Staal got 10 years and $60 million for being a similar style player, what could Oshie get? Sure, Staal has a stronger pedigree and resume, but what says No. 74 can’t build his over the next two years under Ken Hitchcock?
The Blues will have to pay top dollar for taking away some of those years in which he can hit the market if they want them. Should they?
It’s fair to say that Backes is the undisputed leader of the organization from a player personnel stand point. He’s the captain, the face of the franchise to the media, a major presence in one of the biggest and most successful team charities. He’s an US Olympian, well educated, articulate, personable, likeable off the ice and loveable on. Paying Oshie more than him could be interpreted as a signal that he is of greater value to the Blues than Backes. Few would doubt Oshie’s popularity among the fan base is higher than anyone else’s, but his level of involvement outside the game is minimal. Next summer Alex Pietrangelo’s contract will easily surpass Backes’, but as a top tier defenseman -- 4th in Norris voting -- he should command and receive more. Though he is not as active in the community as Backes, what he means to winning hockey games on the ice justifies the difference. Oshie cannot make that same claim. Backes has been doing what he’s been doing for three seasons and doing it better than usual right winger.
The desire for commitment is there, but the rationale to exceed any internal parameters for the UFA years is not.
From that perspective the best case scenario would be a two year deal with a legitimate raise agreed to outside of arbitration. Something around $8 million total. This would allow the Blues to provide a raise, which he is due for fulfilling his “Prove Me” obligations, without over spending on potential in the UFA years and not surpass Backes’ contract. The ability to negotiate an extension as early after each July 1st rather than each January 1st because of the two year deal, opposed to a one year, is important to note as well. The more time to talk extension the better. With the 2012-13 campaign in the books there would be a larger sample size, plus clarity on the next CBA, to gauge Oshie’s future value.
One detractor from this scenario is that Oshie would be a UFA the same offseason that Alex Steen, Jaroslav Halak, and Brian Elliott are as well. Jaden Schwartz will also be a RFA then. That could lead to a very difficult summer. Especially if only one year agreements could be reached with Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrik Berglund and Chris Stewart in the 2013 offseason. But winning now is more important than
what ifs later.
-
Your Take
What’s your take on the Oshie situation? Should the Blues cave and pay up or hold the line? Do you think any moves they may make to add another veteran forward or top 4 defenseman are tied to how this deal pans out?
Quick Hit Randomness
- A
Q&A with 2012 1st round pick Jordan Schmaltz is up on the Blues site now. The 25th overall selection answered questions submitted by fans.
- If a trade cannot be made for a defenseman, I’m all for Kevin Shattenkirk on the right side with Pietrangelo moving to the left if a preseason / early regular season experiment with Ian Cole fails. Hope to talk more about this scenario later in the week or the weekend. In the meantime, what are your thoughts on Cole and Shattenkirk paired with Petro?
-
Thanks for reading!
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»