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Semin - A Look Behind the Numbers, Should the Rangers Make an Offer?

July 13, 2012, 10:10 AM ET [723 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As we continue to wait and wait and then wait some more for any type of resolution on Nash, Yandle and Doan, speculation turns to who else the Rangers could look to acquire and/or sign with Alexander Semin receiving prominent mention. If you believe what Pierre McGuire and Marc Crawford said on TSN’s Free Agency Xmas (otherwise known as July 1), Semin is a coach killer and one of the biggest scourge’s in the league. While that may be true up to a point, a look behind the numbers reveals a slightly different story. (A major hat tip to Glen Miller, who pulled the numbers for me and also provided a good part of the overall analysis, which I supplemented at the top and bottom of the blog with my own thoughts).


Semin R. Corsi QoC QoT ZS ZF ES Pts ES Pts/60 ESTOI PP Pts PP Pts/60 PPTOI
2011-2012 11 -0.02 0.018 51.1 50.8 43 2.35 1097.38 11 3.40 194.3
2010-2011 11.4 -0.022 0.167 55 50.5 35 2.32 904.63 18 5.17 208.75
2009-2010 4.9 0.047 0.24 54 52.6 55 3.06 1077.37 27 6.56 246.97

2010-2011 GVT – 14.5 2009-2010 GVT – 23.5

The question with Semin is almost a chicken or the egg one. Todd Cordell is his blog also laid out a case as why to Semin is better than you think which seems to be supported by the numbers. However, the chicken or egg question surrounds why his numbers have plummeted. Is it because he no longer is playing with top quality linemates or did his poor play result in him no longer playing with those linemates? More on that at the bottom of the blog.

From Glen:
His Relative Corsi ratings are solid. He finished 43rd out of the 300 F last year who played 60 games or more.

His QoC and QoT metrics suggest he’s benefitted tremendously from playing with high quality teammates and against below-average competition (see below for more). It might also offer a suggestion as to why his R. Corsi ratings have been so strong.
His Offensive Zone Start % is above 50% which means he begins more than half of his shifts in the offensive zone (discounting neutral zone starts from the actual calculation). The fact he finishes fewer in the offensive zone indicates his club loses territory when he’s on the ice though that differential is better than several noted superstars such as: Malkin, the Sedins, Patrick Kane, etc. Truthfully that differential isn’t so bad.

As for his ES scoring rates, last season Gaborik registered a 2.54 ES Pts/60 rate and a 4.3 PP Pts/60. Richards was 1.93 on ES and 4.22 PP. while Semin was 2.35 ES and 3.40 PP.
What’s disturbing is nearly all of these metrics reveal a regressive trend. All of his scoring rates have decreased sizably (23.2% drop in ES scoring from ’09-’10 and a decrease of 48.2% on the PP). Meanwhile his QoC (Quality of Competition) has decreased meaning he played against far lesser competition last year than he did in previous years (but that also could be impacted by who he played with that ultimately determined who he played against. Meaning if you are on a fourth line, you may be matched against a fourth line, causing a drop in production etc.).

His GVT ratings, which are a fairly sophisticated and all encompassing player evaluation metric that offers a fairly good indication on their effectiveness, though it leans a bit more towards goaltenders, are pretty solid. For comparative purposes, Gaborik posted a GVT of 19.4 his first year in NYC. Callahan’s career high (prior to this past year as I don’t have those yet) was 7.8. Another comparison is Brad Richards. He has never recorded a GVT of 20.0 or better while Semin has bested that twice in the last three seasons (not counting 2011-2012).

There may be a logical reason his overall scoring numbers have dropped precipitously. QoC and QoT would seem to lessen that possibility though. Has he been hurt? Has he been frustrated with his role (as has been suggested by his agent)? The scouts and evaluators would also know of any dirt relative to how his teammates view him. His PP scoring rate could result from less overall minutes and from playing perhaps on a less talented PP unit.

Now that Whitney, Hudler. Jagr, Selanne, are all off the table, each of whom received what seems to be the magical number - $4.5 million range – given Semin’s age, his prior production, albeit lessened a bit by his poor past two years, and possible upside, why would he not get an offer at a minimum within the same range? Right now, the rumors point to Semin going to either Pittsburgh or Detroit if he does not end up in the KHL, who reportedly has made him a huge offer. That said, given that he is still out there and cognizant of how the market place has been playing out, where the Rangers seem to have been shut out on adding a top-six forward, would you be willing to take a flier on him, and if so, for how much?

Glen’s view is that he would be worth a flier on at most a two-year deal with a $5 million AAV, assuming New York miss out on Ryan and Nash and that the Rangers decide they absolutely must add a sniper. He added as well, that he believed the leadership structure in the room can handle an "enigma" like Semin. I share a similar view, cognizant of what happened with Alex Frolov (as pointed out by the SNY Rangers Blog) and Nik Zherdev and the view that Semin could be version 2.0 of them, but given the need, the potential upside and Semin’s need to clear his name based on McGuire’s and Crawford’s comments, a play for Semin might be a good option.

Side notes:
- I wonder if the injury to Dylan McIlrath, who has already started his rehab, impacts his possible ability to make the team our of training camp down the road? Granted, he should be healthy by then, but any setbacks could make his long-shot even longer.

- Nice to see Jeff Beukeboom back in the Rangers fold as an assistant down in Hartford. Losing JJ Daignuealt to the Canadiens is a big loss as he and Schonfeld were two big reasons why the D pipeline and development has been so steady. Hopefully, Beuk will be a seemless transition and continuation of that development.
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