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A few days ago, a source coined the term "He Who Will Not Be Named" in reference to Vancouver G Roberto Luongo—and the possibility that he could be a trade target of the Blackhawks.
As the Hawks have been almost ominously quiet the last few days, I'll weigh in on the plausibility of Plan C (Plan A being Marty Brodeur, and Plan B being some combination of Zach Parise and/or Ryan Suter).
First, regardless of the term of his deal and who he currently plays for, why acquire Luongo?
Simple, he upgrades a position of need. You don't have to look very long at Luongo's career statistics, or even those from last year when he essentially lost his job to Cory Schneider, to see that Luongo is a very good goaltender. Let's face it, it became fashionable in Chicago, during playoff battles with the Canucks in 2009 and 2010, to deride Luongo as a weak-minded loser.
In truth he's a big AND athletic goaltender who takes up a lot of the net and makes highlight reel saves. Sure, he's had his moments of infamy. He's also had long stretches and series where he's been unbeatable.
At 33, he's not a spring chicken but he also likely has a number of productive years left.
In my opinion, he'd likely thrive in Chicago.
OK, but what about that contract, that carries a $5.33 million annual cap hit through 2022? Well, I'm not here to minimize it, rather put it in perspective.
If you don't have a huge issue with Marian Hossa's deal, then you shouldn't with Luongo's. The two are similarly structured, with low actual salaries in the last few years of the deal—the total salary paid in the last four years of Luongo's totals $7 million.
Sure, $5.33 million is a lot of cap hit for a 43 year old goalie. But like Hossa's deal, which expires when he's 41, Luongo's was probably signed with a wink and a nod—he's likely not going to play the last 3-4 years of his deal.
So assume Lu retires in, say, 2018, $5.33 million cap hit still might seem like a lot for a 39 year old goalie.
Well, were you signed up for Martin Brodeur at $5 million per in 2012?
If you look at growth in the cap over the last five years (in a mostly bad economy), not to mention inflation, $5.33 million could seem like a pittance for a very good goalie, albeit in the twilight of his career.
OK, but then we get to the real issues.
There is no argument that Corey Crawford, Ray Emery, Alec Richards, Carter Hutton or Kent Simpson are as good as Roberto Luongo. They're not. Further, Luongo's a better goaltender than any currently in the Hawk organization—at any level—meaning, better than anything the Hawks have or will develop in the next few years from what they have.
So while the Hawks could draft or sign an as good or better goalie in the next few years, that's not at all guaranteed. There really is no argument as to whether the Hawks should pursue Luongo—they should. He upgrades a gaping position of need, and if acquiring him and Sheldon Brookbank were the only moves the Hawks made this offseason—on top to the additions of Johnny Oduya and Andrew Shaw after midseason last year—the Hawks are a better team with a real shot at going deep in the playoffs.
The last and perhaps biggest issue is how willing Vancouver GM Mike Gillis is to provide a big piece of the puzzle to a hated conference rival. And to me, that's the whole issue.
But bear in mind, Gillis needs to move Luongo—and Luongo has a NMC. He has to approve a deal. No one, including Lu has said he'd waive only for Chicago. Florida is definitely a place he'd like to return. But Florida, unlike Chicago and Toronto, has a goalie of the future not far away in Jacob Markstrom.
There was a vague rumor floating around the other day of a deal involving Michal Frolik and Niklas Hjalmarsson for Luongo. In truth, if Gillis were to deal with Chicago, he'd likely want as much value as possible. Anyone thinking the Hawks can offload Frolik, the oft-concussed Steve Montador and say Rostislav Olsez' bad contract on a desperate Gilis is dreaming. Gillis will need value to offset the likelihood that Lu will thrive in Chicago. Hjalmarsson (or similar) could be that value. Again, if you were signed up to deal Hjalmarsson for Zack Smith +, well, Luongo is quite arguably a higher value return.
I don't know how serious the Hawks or Gillis are about this possibility, but there were widely reported rumors of discussions between the two around Luongo at the draft. And I heard on Thursday the Hawks might revisit it.
I still suspect Lu ends up in Toronto, or Gillis bites the bullet and keeps a huge dressing room distraction around before dealing Lu to another team in need before the trade deadline.
But the possibility of Roberto Luongo in a Blackhawk sweater in 2012 is real.
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