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"Say what you'll do and do what you say."
Since the beginning of the offseason the above phrase can be used to describe the efforts of the St. Louis Blues in relation to constructing their 2012-13 lineup. The goal, based off of front office remarks, heading in was first and foremost -- whether right, wrong, or otherwise -- to maintain the group that earned the club only their second playoff berth since the last lockout.
General Manager Doug Armstrong continued to put Tom Stillman's money where his mouth is. On Thursday restricted free agent winger, and deeply beloved fan favorite, David Perron agreed to a four year, $15.25 million contract. The deal should keep the 26th overall pick in the 2007 draft with the organization through the 2015-16 season.
Perron, a Sherbrooke, Quebec native, has spent his entire professional career with the Blues since breaking in to the NHL in his draft year. Since then the 24 year old has appeared in 292 games (the youngest player in franchise history to reach 200 GP) while registering 74 goals and 173 points. In the 2011-12 campaign he tallied 21 goals and 42 points in just 57 games.
Besides his deft dangles, slick hands and undressing or Mark Streit, Perron is known as one of the many faces of the NHL’s “concussion crisis”. On November 4th, 2010 San Jose Sharks captain Joe Thornton delivered an illegal hit which struck the QMJHL product in the head. Though Perron would complete the game – and notch a goal -- he was later diagnosed with a concussion that kept him off the ice for the remainder of the 2010-11 season. The injury cost him the first 25 games of last season as well. All tolled 97 games were lost.
Initially, it seemed as if the Blues were hesitant to commit to the highly skilled offensive threat. As indicated by Armstrong, the concern regarding how the concussion clouds Perron’s future is legitimate. First hand experience, from an organizational perspective, with Paul Kariya and Andy McDonald shows how easily subsequent concussions can come after the first. Though the franchise is pacing towards stronger financial footing they are still a budget team with a payroll destined to be much closer to the salary cap floor than the upper limit. As the darkest depths of the 10-11 have shown, this team cannot afford to have valuable players taking up significant payroll spending more time on the IR list than the ice.
More than one factor belayed such worry… or at least mitigated the risk.
As it often does, the rampant spending authorized by owners and carried out by GMs highlights the ever inflating cost of quality talent on the open market. An area of the pool that a smaller fish like the Blues simply cannot swim in without being eaten. Such is the life at the bottom of the NHL’s food chain. It certainly gives you a different perspective. As real as the possibility is that Perron could suffer multiple concussions, his triumphant return – a .737 points/game pace compared to his .592 points/game career average -- indicates he could equally resume his path to stardom.
Definitely a thought that requires a “what if” scenario discussion.
Assume for a moment that Perron continues on a similar pace and remains the Blues’ top point producer -- Yes, TJ Oshie and David Backes had more points, but at a much lower per game rate -- while the Blues hold their place in the upper half of the Western Conference. That would put him in the 25 to 30 goal and 60 plus point range over 82 games for a legitimate playoff team. What type of value does he then have as a free agent? Could a team like Montreal, who can easily outbid St. Louis, offer a longterm deal like what the Canucks gave Jason Garrsion to “come home”? Take the Parise/Suter sweepstakes for another example. Both New Jersey and Nashville made competitive offers to hold on to their prized, internally developed, assets. They chose to take the offer closer to home. The Blues could easily be in that position.
Could that scenario still occur with the four year deal? Of course it could, but two years later than it could have otherwise. Assuming the short term deal Armstrong was shooting for was two years, instead of trying to choose between Perron, Alex Steen and Jaden Schwartz in the summer of 2014 and trying to match two offers there is only one UFA forward (Steen) to worry about at that point. The likelihood of retaining at least two of the three is much higher. In terms of keeping a competitive team with positive chemistry together how Perron’s contract shapes up is the best case scenario.
Now the full attention turns to the last major restricted free agent, TJ Oshie. The former North Dakota standout and 2005 1st round pick (24th overall) filed for arbitration prior to Thursday’s 5:00pm eastern deadline. Contract discussions will continue leading up to the hearing, which will be scheduled in the near future, and he can no longer receive offer sheets from other teams. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement then an arbitrator will decide if Oshie should receive a one year or two year deal.
As Armstrong reiterated again, the goal is to sign him to a long term contract. After a turbulent 2010-11 which ended on a sour note with a team imposed suspension for missing a practice, Oshie refocused himself on and off the ice to prove that he can be a top player on a top team in the NHL. A spectacular run – career highs in games (80), goals (19), points (54), Plus/Minus (Plus-15), Power Play Points (16), ATOI (19:32) while facing tough competition (1.094 QoC, 2nd only to David Backes) and logging tough minutes (more defensive zone starts than offensive) – has clearly shown he deserves the reward. The question remains, just how much of a reward. There is little doubt that a happy medium will be found to resolve the issue. A four or five year deal paying out just a bit less than Backes’s sounds about right.
Further depth was added to the roster of the Peoria Riverm, the Blues AHL affiliate, Thursday as well when the Blues signed former San Jose Shark center Andrew Murray to a one year, two-way contract. The 31 year old, 6-foot-2 forward has a career 220 NHL games between the Sharks and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Three of those years in Columbus were during current Blues bench boss Ken Hitchcock’s tenure as the Blue Jackets’ head coach. According to Dave Eminian, the Rivermen beat writer for the Peoria Journal Star, Murray projects to be the No. 2 center while filling a penalty killing and leadership role. An interesting thought considering both Phil McRae (a nearly NHL ready prospect) and Adam Cracknell (least season team captain) could play center behind top line pivot TJ Hensick. Perhaps one of those two could start the season in St. Louis if a Jamie Langenbrunner is not re-signed or another veteran forward is brought in.
The Search for a Defenseman Continues
With the big name (aka big cost) free agent defenseman no longer available the attention now turns completely towards the trade route. If you’ve been reading the reports here on Hockeybuzz or from anyone else covering the Blues you know that’s been the most viable and likely option to fill the hole on the backend from the get go.
Though some, like myself, believe the Blues have built up quite the glutton of NHL quality forwards, Armstrong does not agree. Intimating once again yesterday that he doesn’t believe they “have an excessive amount in any one postion”. Rather than trading away forwards and digging one hole to fill another the preference is to move draft picks (and potentially non roster prospects) as the means to supplement the core opposed to breaking it up to redistribute.
For some of the other 29 GMs around the NHL, those who could or would like to move a defenseman, that’s not welcome news. Teams like Calgary (Jay Bouwmeester), Pittsburgh (Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik), and Phoenix (Keith Yandle) are looking at the Blues lineup and salivating at the chance to grab one of their many skilled forwards because that’s their area of need to stay at a competitive level. St. Louis isn’t in a position to cave, nor are those three mentioned.
Personally, Phoenix is by far the most intriguing option. Yandle is as good as they come at moving the puck (skating and passing) and contributing on the power play. An area they need to back fill with the potential loss of Carlo Colaiacovo. Considering the uncertainty of the ownership situation in the desert could Yandle be cut loose because of his contract? As manageable as it is (for a team with stable ownership), there is not one bigger on their books. Sounds like a situation Blues fans are very familiar with, eh? Doesn’t sound like a far jump to end up at the same circumstances that led to Chris Pronger’s departure, does it? If that winds up being the case, the Blues stand to be a beneficiary. For now, such thoughts are just conjecture. All signs point to Phoenix doing everything they can to maintain their status as a playoff team. Remember they did make it to the Western Conference Finals. If they want to go back next season, Yandle would be a major reason why.
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Thanks for reading!
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EDIT: Corrected the date of Perron's concussion from November 10th, 2010 to November 4th. He did not have the GWG in the game he was concussed. That was Matt D'Agostini.
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