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Rangers FA 2012 - Days 2 and 3, Try and Control Your Excitement

July 3, 2012, 6:43 PM ET [383 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Rangers free agency, days 2 and 3, is not any different from day 1. I was thinking of just leaving the blog blank as a statement but what fun would that be. (EDIT: Late news, team signs Taylor Pyatt, formerly of Phoenix to a two-year, $3.1 million deal. Solid third/fourth line player. Had good playoffs. Style-wise fits into how the Rangers play and is big. Provides some depth, replacing Mitchell and maybe Feds, but let's not overrate. Adding him gives the team another solid, low-priced, mildly productive checking line player, keeping salary available for the big splash (es) and mane he brings Doan with him from the desert).

For the Blueshirts, it's the same as it was yesterday and seemingly from February, they want Nash or maybe Bobby Ryan. However, while they wait - separate and distinct from everyone waiting on Parise and Suter - other moves have occurred which have a material impact on what NY can and may have to do.

I spoke Monday about the loss of Ray Whitney to Dallas for $9 million over two years, so no reason to fully rehash it here. Suffice to say, he was someone I was really hoping the Rangers would sign in case they missed out on the big boys or as a supplement to getting one of them. Yesterday, another possible target went off the board as Jiri Hudler signed a four-year, $16 million deal with Calgary. For all those who have said that it was overpayment, Hudler is a solid second line player, who should put up 50-55 points and his salary was in line with what P.A. Parenteau (overpayment pr underpayment depending on view if he produced solely due to Tavares) and David Jones (likely overpayment) received from Colorado. I thought the combination of the two was a better option that getting Nash, who is making $7.6 million seemingly from now to kingdom come, and/or possibly Bobby Ryan, whose $5.1 salary is reasonable, due to the assets required for each. That cost might and likely will increase once Parise, Suter and others come off the board, which may mean that others should and probably have to be pursued. The only other big names signed the past two days were Olli Jokinen (two-years, $9 million), been there, done that, and Jaromir Jagr, one-year, $4.5 million (see Jokinen comment, though I possibly could have seen him in NY but not at that price. He gives Dallas sage and wisdom, or just remove the s from the first word as he joins Whitney and Roy there).

Glen's view, which is probably shared by others, has the all or nothing mentality. "That's fine, Rangers plan was to go big or go home. They had no interest in playing in the market looking for over-priced middling talents. they either want the elite winger or they'll stick with what they got for the most part. Rely on the continued development and improvement on what's already on the roster and wait for the right move to come along. Before anyone says it, no, the Rangers are not better than they were at the outset of the offseason. I expected the team, if 100% healthy and returning, to regress from last year. Improvement is needed but at what cost? Slats has a good handle on the situation finally and will make the right moves at the right times."

I agree with Glen to a point. A big move would be great, but while they wait and wait and wait some more and we hash and re-hash who is available and who could go for them, we lose out on others as I pointed out above. So let's say in a worse case, the Rangers get neither Nash nor Ryan and as we all know, they won't end up with Parise or Suter, who else could be available for them to pursue?

One option, which I have been vehemently against is Alex Semin. Yes, I know he could be Nik Zherdev 2.0 and was referred to by Pierre McGuire and Marc Crawford TSN as a "coach killer" plus his picture could be used to the word mercurial in the dictionary. That all said, he still scored 38, 26, 34, 40, 28 and 21 goals the past six season. Of course, that has to be balanced against the fact that multiple coaches left him on the bench in high-pressure, late-game situations and his effort, to be kind, was less than exemplary the past several seasons. However, the Rangers have a need for a sniper, Semin is a plus-92 the past four years and somehow led the Caps in takeaways last year. Maybe his desire to shove the coach killer comment up TSN's rear-end and prove himself will be enough to warrant him taking and the Rangers offering a one-year deal in a big market. Again, I realize this is fraught with major risks and could easily backfire on the Rangers, but it may be something worth pursuing as each side now has a need.

Option two could be Teemu Selanne, if he is willing to leave the West Coast, which might be unlikely. All signs point to him returning to Anaheim and he at a minimum will want the dollars Jagr and Whitney got, but he is still a solid scorer, especially on the PP, and would fill a huge need.

Option three, which could become number one, yet he won't decide until July 9, so it's a waiting game with him as well is Shane Doan. As I pointed out in my last two blogs, I was a big proponent of adding Whitney as a hedge against not getting one of the big names, while Glen Miller's excellent statistics based article on the SNYRangersblog was a solid counter-argument to my view as he was a proponent of adding Doan. In addition, Timo Seppa of Hockey Prospectus did an interesting analysis in an unpublished study where he looked for Wingers >35 y.o., 0.65-0.90 points/game, used on PP not PK (before 2011-12). He compared Whitney, Doan, Prospal, Samuelsson and Hejduk, noting that those other than Whitney were signed for around $2.0-$2.5M per year, with his premise that Whitney was overpaid. Based on what Samuelsson just got from Detroit and what Whitney got, I expect Doan to get Whitney/Jagr money, which moves him from a reasonably-priced signing to one that inches closer to elite territory. The Rangers desire to go that high likely depends on what happens with Nash and Ryan. Plus, Doan may want to stay out West, removing another possible option.

Notice a pattern here? The options are dwindling, and since I don't view Sullivan, Kostitsyn or Knuble as viable choices, Sather has now painted himself and the team in a corner with Nash or Ryan as possibly the only way out. I hope I am wrong, but as of now, the off-seaosn clearly has not gone accordingly to plan, though given what we have seen to date, I think all of us are unsure what the Plan is beyond trading for Nash or Ryan or someone we have yet to even consider.
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