So there is some debate on exactly how much Canes GM Jim Rutherford has to spend and how what level of player the Canes will be shopping for in a couple days.

In the "spend more and get another high-end player or 2" corner is Rutherford's recent comments about adding a forward and a veteran defenseman. He has not named names obviously nor has he clearly stated what price range he is shopping in, but there seems to be a perception that he is still shopping at the higher end. Chip Alexander who covers the Canes for the N&O is still throwing out Suter as a possibility though it seems to be more his opinion than reporting of Rutherford's direct comments. As an aside, I highly recommend following Chip on Twitter @ice_chip and/or through the Canes Now blog as he is most up-to-date source for stuff coming out of the locker room and exec suites. Then there is the salary cap minimum. The high end projection for the 2012-13 salary cap is $70M. This would imply a floor of $54M. If my math is right, the Canes need to spend a little more than $5M to reach this floor. It is important to note that the real floor is a complete unknown since this CBA will be replaced with something new.

In the "Jordan Staal was the big add, from here we spend less" are a couple things. First is the Canes history as a frugal team. Last year, they had $50M of salaries on opening night (see Part 2). So something like $53M (if the new CBA permits this level) would be a decent jump. More significantly, if you make an estimate for Skinner and JStaal's increases next year with new contracts, the team's salary escalates by about $6M next summer, and there are not any real big contracts that come off the books to offset much of this (again see Part 3 for the math). Unless Rutherford can get a 1-year deal, I just don't see him spending more than he needs to this summer, and the high-end guys don't do 1-year deals obviously.

So though I would LOVE to have a Suter, Parise or other high-end addition, I just don't see it happening. My math says that Rutherford spends what he must but no more to add 2 more players. I say this is about $4.5-$5M - about $3.5M for a top 4 defenseman and $1-1.5M for a 3rd/checking line center.

I have 1 more semi-pre-written blog on the shelf that goes through players in detail that I will post tomorrow to keep this from getting crazy long, so for here I will cut to the chase.

On defense, the Canes need a safe/sure top 4 defenseman. Both McBain and Faulk could step into this role, but counting on BOTH young/relatively unproven options is a recipe for trouble. Better is to sign 1 known commodity and let them battle it out for who plays in the top 4 and who pairs with Jay Harrison to make a solid 3rd pairing.

I like Bryan Allen. The Wideman signing yesterday for $5.25M scares the heck out of me, but I still hope that Allen prices at the $3-4M/year range typical for top 4s who are sort of in a 2nd tier. 3 years at something like $10-11M seems fair. He fit well with Gleason at times early last year. He is a known commodity in the locker room. He is the nasty/penalty killing defense first guy that is unglamorous but helps win hockey games. And just maybe the Jordan Staal trade helps convince him that the Canes are heading in the right direction, and he wants to stay to be part of it.

Other options include Suter on the high-end (again I'm skeptical we will enter/win this bidding war), Matt Carle, Michal Rozsival (with an age risk at this point) and then another tier of riskier/lower end bets. I don't think this it the preferred route. The Canes are not short on guys that could hypothetically work. They are short on guys who will work, so adding another wild card increases options but still leaves you open to being in a bad spot come November if 2 guys do not work out. In the 2nd tier of flyers is Joe Corvo (coming off a bad year which makes him cheap and he did somehow fit with Gleason only a few years back), Sami Salo (similarly cheap, a good power play shot, but last healthy probably before the Canes won the Cup), Greg Zanon (looks more like a solid 3rd pairing guy like Jay Harrison, etc.

There really just aren't a ton of options. A trade is another possibility. Might the Canes package up a maybe top 4 like McBain to get a safer one even if the upside is less? If you sent something like McBain plus Stewart or Larose with a prospect or 2 to get a $4Mish guy, you only upped salary by $1-2M instead of the full $4M which maybe gets you back in the hunt for a higher-end forward (think Ray Whitney or Paul Gaustad).

My wild guess says that the Jordan Staal combined with Rutherford stretching a bit on price is enough to bring back Bryan Allen.

The other need is a forward. Opinions here are all over the map. Mine says that Staal/Staal/Tlusty followed by Skinner/Jokinen/Ruutu is good enough to start the year and that there are generally enough options between youth and veterans to fill out most of a 3rd/4th line. But if you assume that Jordan and Eric will play together, you are suddenly 1 center short. I don't like the idea of moving Brent up though it is a possibility (see previous blog). I also don't like the idea of moving someone else (Jokinen, Ruutu, etc.) down. It defeats the whole purpose of adding Jordan Staal to make your top 6 better if you then have to slot someone else who belongs there down. So I think the basic shopping assignment is to add a 3rd/checking line center to replace Sutter. The premium option here is Paul Gaustad. He is coming off a $2.3M salary and the best option for big/physical/defense at forward. You have to figure his bidding war starts north of $2.5M. I like Dominic Moore here. He is experienced in this role and also has good enough wheels to play a Sutter-like game creating occasional offense off the rush with guys like Dwyer, Larose, etc. Moore probably costs $1-1.5M/year which with Allen or similar gets you to the $4.5-5M budget that I mentioned above.

The other sexier option is to add a mid-range offensively-oriented forward (possibly who could be a playmaker on the Staals' line). The obvious choice here based partly on Rutherford's fixation with reacquiring players is Ray Whitney, but there are other options including a Brad Boyes reclamation project and a similar wiley veteran like Steve Sullivan (he is still out there and coming back right?).

I am fine with poking around the mid-tier options if the price and length or contract is reasonable but then am happy defaulting to Dominic Moore or similar here if the market for better players dictates..

Again, while the Canes don't have budget issues so much this summer, the big increases next summer make 2-3 year commitments difficult. I think with 1 more defenseman and modest Sutter replacement, the Canes enter 2012-13 as a better team personnel-wise. If they also pick up where they left off under Muller, they should be able to play at a playoff pace.

A conservative spending summer would also leave a decent amount of dry powder for Rutherford to be an aggressive buyer at the trade deadline if he thinks it will help. This plan fits better with having budget for this year but not so much next years and because you are only picking up 1/4 of the salary and not committed for future years, it gives the Canes the ability to shop in a much higher price bracket than they can afford for 2-3 year contracts this summer. The downside of this is that you need to give up picks or prospects to play this game. I like the idea of saving some money for higher end rentals later (we all like how the Recchi/Weight thing worked out) and not mucking up the budget for next summer and forward.

As I said, I have 1 more semi-written blog on the shelf that goes through the free agent options in a little more detail and will put that up tomorrow to make for my first real week of blogging in awhile.

For a quick heads up when I post a blog, follow me on Twitter at CarolinaMatt63.

Go Canes!

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