In my blog yesterday, I took a dive in "Jim Rutherford building a winner" history of successfully building winners out of spare parts and the downside of it - the inconsistency that sees the Canes only making the playoffs every third year or so. I voted yes on the trade at a very simple level. The Canes needed to add more true top-end talent. They got a chance to do so. And rather than going the murky and uncertain route of free agency instead, they seized their chance.

As noted everywhere, the cost was significant. Brandon Sutter is a very good hockey player. Pens fans should be ecstatic. For the role that was asked of Staal in Pittsburgh (3rd fiddle defensive stopper without a huge need to score), Sutter should prove to be a solid drop in that saves a few salary dollars to fill out the lineup and keep the big guns. And Pit gets 2 futures on top of it.

But at the end of the day, Canes fans should be ecstatic too. In recent years, the Canes have assembled a decent collection of 2nd line/high-end 3rd line quality players. I am generally happy to have Tuomo Ruutu, Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner and an emerging Jiri Tlusty in the mix. But are any of these guys pure, true 1st line NHL players? I don't think so. In the mix and match NHL regular season, it is not uncommon to spread talent at times (reference Crosby and Malkin going stretches where they mostly only see each other on the power play or in key stretches late in a game), but I think the threshhold is having a couple true 1st-liners to pair with a 3rd guy who brings a skillset/chemistry to fill out the line. The Canes struggled mightily building a line around Eric Staal last year. The most offense (w/Skinner) was woeful defensively. The Erik Cole look (w/Ruutu) was okay at times but did not thrive. Ditto for most everything else. The only thing that really ever worked was a late season run with Jiri Tlusty and spare parts (Jerome Samson on the 1st line for a stretch?).

Enter Jordan Staal (and assume for a moment that he will center a 1st line):

1) For as much as Eric brings offense and as much as he has improved, he still rates out average defensively as an NHL centerman. And as demonstrated early in 2011-12 average does not cut it when you are regularly matching up against another team's top line and hit a bit of a scoring funk. The question on Jordan Staal will be how high he can push his scoring ceiling. Jordan instantly makes the 1st line bigger, better in the faceoff circle and significantly better defensively. Eric can focus more on what he does best which is getting his big frame up and down the ice and scoring goals.

2) The wild card is his offensive output. If Jordan proves to have a 50ish point ceiling and does not see a boost because of improved linemates, more power play time and a different role, then he looks like an overly costly incremental upgrade to Brandon Sutter.

But I don't see how he doesn't see an offensive boost. Interestingly, I don't think he really even needs to increase his offense that much from what he did last year. His 82-game pace last year points to 65 points with a heavy 50/50 goal/assist split. My benchmark for ultimate 2-way center excellence wearing the sightless eye is Rod Brind'Amour's 2005-06 season. Rod went 31/39 for 70 points in that phenomenal season. I guess you can make a case that the Canes were deeper offensively that season, so less was needed, but I still think that the 65-70 point neighborhood could be enough from Jordan if...see below.

3) It all comes down to winning the "our best against your best" battle. For all of the scoring, winning 5-on-5 (+/-) has been elusive for Eric Staal. He has had plus years but only by slim margins. And last season's debacle was defined by Eric leading the entire NHL at about minus 20 a quarter of the way through the season. He eventually righted the ship and was a modest plus player under Muller. This will be the biggest measure for Jordan Staal. Is his Brind'Amour-like (on the stat sheet anyway) balance of enough scoring with a bunch of shutdown defense on the side enough to make the Canes best line better than the other team's best line on most nights, because over the course of a long season more often than not games are decided by whose best players are better.

I am optimistic on Jordan Staal but not so much because I see a massive scoring boost. I think he does score more, but I think the bigger contribution is the balance he brings to the top line (for stretches of the season) and the ability to also fall back to 2nd center and take on the checking role that he excels at for other stretches.

I target right around 70 points with a big impact on what 5-on-5 numbers look like for the Eric and the other mix of top 6 forwards that see ice time with him in 2012-13. The key is that he needs to do both. If he goes real big on offense (80 points) but trades defense to do it, the fans love it, he's an all-star, but the Canes don't do much better in the standings. If he can't climb out of the checking line stats totals and nets on 50ish points while playing stellar defense, he becomes too expensive for the cash-strapped Canes for the role/salary slot that he is in.

I lean way optimistic on the situation and think the Canes got a lot better with the trade. As much as I like Brandon Sutter, I just don't think his scoring tool kit and offensive ceiling are high enough to make him a center on a scoring line. This relegates him to being a (very very good) checking line center. Those are much easier to find on the free agent market than top 6 2-way centers like Jordan Staal.

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Go Canes!

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