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Over the past month, I've spent a ton of time
outlining the pros and cons of Filip Kuba's potential return to the Ottawa Senators as an UFA this summer.
At the end of 2010-2011, Filip Kuba's career as a hockey player had hit a new low. The rearguard had become the ultimate defensive pylon -- never looking comfortable in the defensive zone, and playing with a newly-developed tentativeness that drew plenty of ire from the front office, coaching staff, and fan base.
It's almost astonishing, then, to consider that Filip Kuba's really caught a second wind in his professional career. Whether or not he signs with the Ottawa Senators is really a moot point at the micro level -- he's rehabilitated from injury, returned to (relative) form, and is certainly capable of playing against top-nine competition for a couple of more years.
Over in Edmonton, the Oilers have dealt with a similarly depreciating commodity in Ryan Whitney. The injury plagued blue-liner is set to finish the final year of his hefty $4.0M annual contract in 2012-2013, and largely, the Oilers fan base is more than ready to part ways.
Whitney, much like Kuba, certainly had -- or, has -- the skill set to compete at the highest of levels. Unfortunately, a bevvy of injuries have derailed his game, and the shadow of the player we once saw rack up fifty-nine points (14G/45A) with the Pittsburgh Penguins just a handful of years ago has become more of an on-ice liability than anything else.
The comparison of the two, really, is bizarrely accurate. Filip Kuba -- again, like Whitney -- was considered an OFD before undergoing surgery(back). Thrown right back into the fire alongside an Ottawa Senators blue line that was at best makeshift, Kuba reinvented his game(
especially defensively) in the final year of his contract, and managed to find the offense(6G/26A -- 32 PTS) that brought him into the NHL fold years ago.
One difference? Filip Kuba's partner for the majority of the season was Erik Karlsson. Ryan Whitney will have to follow Filip Kuba's path without the same luxury if he's to turn his game around.
However, it's important to note that the horrors of the Edmonton blue line collectively have probably been the only shield for Ryan Whitney against endless scrutiny. The Oilers have been notoriously bad on the defensive end over the past few years, but that's what happens when your pairings are sub-replacement level, and the goaltending -- from Nikolai Khabibulin to Devan Dubnyk -- are fringe NHL starters.
If you need that quantified past the twenty-third ranked 2.8 GAA in 2011-2012, consider the fact that Tom Renney optioned Cam Barker into an NHL lineup twenty-five times last season. Barker, by my estimation, is right now the single-worst defenseman in the National Hockey League, and considering the competition -- Brett Lebda, Sheldon Brookbank, Theo Peckham, and my personal dark-horse
Yannick Weber -- that's a fairly indicting statement.
As it stands right now, and regardless of whether the Edmonton Oilers select Nail Yakupov with the first-overall pick or trade down in favor of Ryan Murray, the team has just four potential top-four defensemen in Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Nick Schultz, and Ryan Whitney. Now, I'm fine with the first pairing of Smid and Petry -- although, in today's NHL, that's probably more suitable for a second-tier line.
Edmonton -- much like the above-referenced Ottawa -- really needs their team to move the puck up ice, driving possession on each shift. They simply don't have the defensive talent, let alone the goaltending, to bunker down and stop thirty-five plus shots on goal.
Last season, Ladislav Smid(+2.6) and Jeff Petry(-0.6) posted fairly average Relative Corsi numbers, but considering how poorly Edmonton performed last season, and just how often Edmonton's top-pairing played against the opposition's best scoring line, those kind of metrics do look pretty desirable.
On the other end of that spectrum, Nick Schultz(-7.2) and Ryan Whitney(-8.5). The issue, clearly, is that one player -- Schultz -- isn't that sound of a puck-mover, and Whitney was playing with enough lower-body injuries to justify his complete suck.
It should be noted that the Schultz and Whitney pairing really is just one man's guess at how the team shapes up, assuming that neither of the big two UFA's -- Ryan Suter and Jason Garrison -- are signed. The two did see some time together last year, but prior to the Schultz/Gilbert swap, Whitney saw the majority of his action alongside Corey Potter, who isn't exactly Chris Pronger.
Back to Ryan Whitney: If he does end up drawing alongside Nick Schultz or a comparable talent, just what kind of production should fans expect to see?
Truthfully, it comes down to how healthy the twenty-nine year old is. Considering his production(
below) prior to ankle injuries, it's fairly safe to assume that a return to formidable play coincides with how healthy the guy is. Even if the point production remains on the low-end of his natural mean, the possession numbers -- and subsequently, the team's offensive efficiency output -- should improve.
Last year's possession splits for Whitney were tragic.
Edmonton can draft well, scour free agency, and bring up some of their developing defensemen -- including Martin Gernat(CHL) and Dillon Simpson(NCAA) -- over time. Hell, with a bit more focus on the defensive aspects of the game, the Edmonton Oilers could be back in playoff-contention in short-order.
The only issue, though, is that regardless of the steps taken for the future, the Edmonton Oilers defense will look patchwork once again in 2011-2012. Steve Tambellini and the future bench boss will have to work with the few players at their disposal, and Ryan Whitney -- love him or hate him -- is one of the players on this roster capable of logging top-four minutes if healthy.
Or, in the alternative: There simply isn't much of a choice. It's either Ryan Whitney or AHL-quality replacements that don't have any business logging high-leverage defensive minutes against NHL competition.
For the sake of this team's success and his inevitable contract search in the summer of 2013, I hope he buries the ugly injuries and nausea-inducing play from last year and finds his game once again. At the very least, a player like Filip Kuba -- and, plenty of others before him -- have shown it's possible.
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