In case any of you missed it, I got in a huge argument on Friday with fans mostly of the Pittsburgh Penguins. They took exception to my suggestion that the Penguins should consider dealing Jordan Staal to the Oilers for Sam Gagner and a second asset (I mentioned Paajarvi, but I also mentioned it could be a draft pick or someone else). According to Penguins fans, Staal is an infinitely better player than Gagner, even though the 23 year old Staal has a lower point-per-game average during his career (.575) than our 22 year-old Sammy (.601). Some clown even suggested Gagner was a "4th rate player". Of all the nerve.

Yes, points don't tell the whole story about the value of a player. And yes, Staal has seen plenty of 3rd line duty, playing the checking center role behind superstars Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Perhaps if Staal was on a team where he was the #1 offensive center, his career stats would be higher.

OMG, so many people really don't understand roster economics. It's truly depressing, in an age where the IQ of fans has increased so much thanks to social media and people like me. I hate to be the one who has to explain this to people too thick to get it, but I have no other choice. Having to do this will hurt me more than it hurts you.

1. Staal will be a UFA on July 1st, 2013. Gagner is a RFA on July 1st, 2012. Check the pattern of player signings. It's likely Gagner will sign a three year deal this summer. If he goes to arbitration, it could be a two-year deal. Even though we can all agree Staal is the better player, three years of Gagner is worth more than one year of Staal. Even two years is worth more than one. It's not like Sammy is dog food. Points per game...pretty even talent here, friends.

2. Points-per-game averages do need to be considered when evaluating a player. Staal plays on a team with guys like Crosby, Malkin and Letang. Gags, up until this season, played on a team with guys who couldn't shoot straight. How many 50+ points guys were there on the Oilers in 2007/2008? Two. 08/09? Three. 09/10? One. 10/11? None. 11/12? Three. Compare to Staal. 07/08? Six. 08/09? Three. 09/10? Four. 10/11? Two. 11/12? Five, including himself for the first time. Conclusion: Staal has played on teams that are tremendously better offensively, and therefore, he had more opportunity to collect points...but he didn't. Sammy has an excuse for sub-50 point seasons. Staal really doesn't.

3. Gagner played an average of 17:10 minutes per game in 2011/2012. Staal? He played 20:03. And don't tell me the guy never played in offensive situations. Stats say Staal had five goals on the PP, so he received special team minutes.

I'm not trying to say Sam Gagner is a better player than Jordan Staal. Staal has size Gagner doesn't, and he's one of the better two-way centers in the league. Why the Oilers would have interest in acquiring him is because he's got size, and would offer variety from 1st line center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers are too small up front, especially at center. If Gagner was 6' 2", 210lbs, we wouldn't be having this conversation, because I wouldn't deal him for Staal straight up (let alone throwing in a 2nd asset for him).

Let's go about this a different way. Do you honestly think Jordan Staal wants to stay in Pittsburgh?

I've heard he likes this city and the team.

I've also heard he wants a chance to play consistently in the Top 6, and he knows that won't happen in Pittsburgh. Yes, they could move Staal or Malkin to the wing, to sort things out in the Top 6, but is doing so in the Penguins best interests? Likely no. Crosby, Malkin and Staal are excellent centers, just like Taylor Hall is probably cut out to be a left-winger instead of a center (because being a winger allows him to drive down the ice and play a power game...moving him to center could force him to play more responsible hockey, hanging back, completely taking the edge off of his game).

Keep in mind that the heavily-favored Penguins lost in the 1st round this season. Meaning, changes are coming. It's not just that the Penguins lost, it's how they lost. No D. If Staal is the two-way genius everyone thinks he is, where was the shutting down against Philly?

If Jordan Staal signed a long-term contract extension this summer, his trade value goes up. For now, he's someone who can go anywhere in a year as a UFA, and his value in a deal will reflect it.

As for Gagner, he's really, really, really not that bad of a player. People are making it sound like he's junk, when clearly, he is not. Gagner is a competitive player who put up monster offensive numbers in Junior...far better ones than Staal, I might add. He's 22, so he's gonna get better. We saw flashes of brilliance in 2011/2012 from Gagner. If he ever figures out how to score consistently, he might just be an all-star someday. I kid you not. Ten - 8pts games in an 82 game schedule is an 80pts season. Know how many 80pts+ guys there were in the NHL in 2011/2012? Nine.

I figured out a big pile of stats...comparing Gagner to the rest of his draft class. Comparing Gagner to other players taken in the last seven years in the 5-10 pick range of their draft class. Comparing him to all the other centers taken. I could write a big blog posting all of this stats junk if you really want to see it. For now, I'll post a synopsis of what I learned:

If you look at players drafted as centers (according to the NHL website) in the first three rounds between the years of 2006 to 2011, I found eight centers...eight...who were drafted at 7th overall or later that I'd consider better than Sam Gagner. Eight. Wanna know how many players drafted at center from the first three rounds between 2006 and 2011 I think were/are worse players than Sam Gagner? 128. Yep. Eight drafted 7th or later are better; 128 worse.

Deal with it.

Of course, there have been better centers taken, but most were drafted higher than 6th overall. Crosby - 1st. Malkin - 2nd. Staal - 2nd. H. Sedin - 3rd. Stamkos - 1st. Tavares - 1st. Backstrom - 4th. Kessel (yes, I'm even saying Kessel is better than Gagner) - 5th. Duchene - 3rd. Nine guys in six draft years.

As for his draft year, only one guy has more points: Patrick Kane. Although in 15 years, we might look back and say Logan Couture was the best player taken from the Class of 2007. Looking at the list, Gagner is at least one of the Top 5 players coming out of the 2007 Draft, and bad year or not, he's got reason to be proud. There are some decent...no superstars, but decent...players from 2007.

I suppose how Gagner compares to his draft class, or to where players taken in recent years, doesn't really answer the question of his value in a deal for Jordan Staal...it helps paint a pretty picture, but it doesn't answer the question, Claire. Answer the question.

I'm so annoyed at this whole discussion because the suggestion that one year of Staal is worth more than a few years of Gagner is so ridiculous. Would you deal a 22 year old player for 40+ year old Teemu Selanne? No, of course not. Selanne even at his ancient age is a far better player than Jordan Staal. The Oilers should deal a big pile of stuff for Staal, but dealing for Selanne would be dumb? Get bent.

I kinda hope the Oilers keep Gagner, and draft Nail Yakupov. And then, they play Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov with Gagner for a few seasons, so Gag's point total per season inflates to 70 or 80. Then, when Staal continues to put up 50pts seasons playing on a Penguins team stacked with talent, we can ask the question "how much better is Staal to Gagner". 70-points per season Gagner will more or less still be the same guy as 47-points per season Gagner , but I doubt you'll get the same response from the masses.

I hate you Kenny.

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