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Meet the New Erik Karlsson Pairing; Same as the Old Erik Karlsson Pairing?

May 11, 2012, 3:30 PM ET [26 Comments]
Travis Yost
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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One season ago, the mere thought of retaining Filip Kuba past the expiration of his contract in 2012 would've been grounds for heresy.

After all, Kuba's '10-'11 season was an unmitigated disaster, highlighted by defensive gaffes en masse and a serious offensive regression, with just sixteen points(2G/14A) in sixty-four games played.

Kuba -- who admittedly had trouble recovering from a variety of injuries -- looked finished. His inability to defend outside speed was compounded by a lack of physicality and marginalized offensive upside, and with young defensive prospects like David Rundblad and Jared Cowen being groomed for the future, Kuba's days were numbered.

They still may be. But, the mere thought that the Ottawa Senators could reach out and extend Kuba's expiring contract should -- at the very least -- speak positively about the comeback season he pieced together with a resurgent club led by first-year head coach Paul MacLean.

Now, the $3.7M cap hit Kuba towed through his previous contract isn't going to carry over next year. Whether he's working in the nation's capital or one of the other twenty-nine cities, it appears certain that he'll take some sort of pay cut in what could be his final professional deal. Remember - he's thirty-five years old.

Ottawa's been quite adamant about grabbing a top-four, defensive defenseman, but the jury is out as to whether they'll be able to find their guy in the off-season -- be it through unrestricted free agency or trade. Yesterday, I talked about why Bryan Murray should set his sights on Jason Garrison of the Florida Panthers when July 1 hits, but again, that's just one player.

If the Senators are turned off by UFA price gauging and a weak trade market, is there a serious chance that Ottawa will entertain Filip Kuba's return on a short deal? My guess is that it's entirely possible.

There's two main issues in a potential Kuba deal: One, he's definitely not the sexy add off the off-season, and two, his numbers could've easily been inflated (and defensively, protected) by his better-half in Erik Karlsson.

The Kuba-Karlsson pairing was lauded in Ottawa for its offensive production(combined, 25G/85A -- 110 PTS) and improved defensive play against a high caliber of competition. It's not the most preferred shutdown unit in the history of the National Hockey League, but it's impossible to ignore the productivity of the two on both ends against a bevvy of top-six forwards.

Kuba(.807) and Karlsson(.657) finished one and two on the Ottawa Senators this season in Relative Corsi QualComp, again speaking to their efficiency as a unit in unprotected ice time.

Many loathe the +/- statistic, but that's another area where Filip Kuba really shines. For an Ottawa team that was near break-even concerning goals for/goals against, Kuba's +26 was top-ten in the National Hockey League. Considering six of those ten players were from the Boston Bruins and their +67 season goal-differential, that's pretty impressive company.

The camaraderie built between the two certainly made life a bit easier for Paul MacLean, even with an Ottawa club that struggled to keep pucks out of the net all season long. When the game was late and close, MacLean leaned often on the top-pairing, and more often than not, they got the job done.

Again, though, the issue is raised: Just how much did Erik Karlsson protect Filip Kuba's numbers? Or, in the alternative: Was Filip Kuba really a stabilizing factor alongside the twenty-one year old gunner? Did Kuba's presence act as a comfort of sorts to the younger Karlsson, who was given free roam on the ice thanks to Kuba's steady play?

If the front office decides it's more of the former, Ottawa's simply going to look for another blue liner to join Erik Karlsson at the hip next season. If it's the latter? Well, Bryan Murray may actually entertain the return of the Czech defenseman on a small deal.

Hey -- it's not the worst idea in the world.

Back with more tomorrow.
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