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When the Ottawa Senators were eliminated from playoff contention in the first-round to the New York Rangers, the usual questions were thrown in the direction of GM Bryan Murray regarding the franchise's off-season approach.
Perhaps the most intriguing statement Murray offered was in response to an inquiry about potential UFA targets for the Ottawa Senators in the Summer of 2012.
To paraphrase a bit, Murray's search would be two-fold: One, finding a top-six winger that's capable of providing some finish on an Ottawa team that struggled a bit with scoring consistency. Two, adding a defensive defenseman, presumably to shore up the gruesome 2.9 GPGa -- 24th worst in the National Hockey League.
Now, it probably should be noted that Bryan Murray's not going to just go out and add a Greg Zanon-type who is just looking for any and every opportunity to jump into a shooting lane. Not to take anything away from Zanon's game, but in Paul MacLean's up-tempo system, the defenseman has to be a bit capable on the offensive end, too.
Enter Jason Garrison, who took the hockey world by storm with the Florida Panthers in his third professional season. Garrison went undrafted after a stint with the University of Minnesota - Duluth, but has really come into his own as a late-bloomer of sorts after inking a professional contract with the Cats in 2008.
In 2011-2012, Garrison became a mainstay for a Florida Panthers team that would eventually win the Southeast division, scoring sixteen(!) goals and adding seventeen assists. His goal-production was third in the National Hockey League amongst defensemen, just three behind league leaders Erik Karlsson(19) and Shea Weber(19).
Garrison's explosive season guaranteed that he'd be handsomely rewarded in the off-season as a UFA, but it's unquestionably going to scare some suitors away. After all, a seventy-seven game sample isn't exactly the most telling of splits.
Shot percentage withstanding, though, Garrison's peripheral numbers certainly don't appear all that fluky. And, perhaps more importantly, he's a far more realistic buy for an Ottawa team that could get beat out of the market early in the chase for Ryan Suter.
As mentioned above, Garrison did tow a somewhat inflated shot percentage at 9.5% -- about double the NHL average for D via QuantHockey.
Still, a couple of pucks bouncing the right way certainly shouldn't act as a red-flag, especially when you consider the Florida Panthers' offensive producitivtiy as a whole. At just 2.4 GPG, Florida ranked 27th in the NHL in scoring. Suffices to say that even with a shot percentage regression, his goal-scoring -- and point-scoring -- numbers probably wouldn't slide as he fluidly transitioned into a far superior attack.
And, it's not like Jason Garrison's point-blast -- the biggest plus in his skill set -- is going away anytime soon. If Garrison's in open space, he's putting smoke behind that puck. And, the accuracy at which he delivers such a hard shot is truly impressive.
Beyond his offensive capabilities, though, Garrison's actually a pretty rock-solid defender. His 127 hits and 114 blocked shots in the seventy-seven game window were good for second-overall amongst defensemen both ways on the Florida Panthers, and he did it in a hefty 23:41 TOI/G.
Garrison's twenty-three plus minutes were the product of Kevin Dineen's genius, employing the two-way blue liner with regularity on the specialty units. Garrison logged 2:34 TOI/G on the penalty kill, and logged 2:31 TOI/G on the power play.
His OZs/OZf ratio (53% offensive zone start, 49% offensive zone finish) appears average on paper, but when you consider the talent he was playing against, it's pretty impressive.
This brings me to my final point: All of Garrison's productivity, from the sixteen goals and thirty-three points, to the team-leading defensive play came against some seriously tough competition. Along with Mike Weaver(1.069), Jason Garrison(1.015) carried the strongest Relative Corsi QualComp -- measuring Average Relative Corsi of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time -- on his team.
In fact, Garrison's production last season is better than most of the highly-touted defensemen around the National Hockey League. Drew Doughty(.986), Erik Karlsson(.657), Alex Edler(.597), and Dustin Byfuglien(.674) are just a handful of big name, two-way players with weaker splits. with lesser. Hell, Garrison's 1.015 was dead-even with Boston's behemoth, Zdeno Chara's(1.015).
Garrison may come with a bit of risk thanks to just one year of productivity, but the numbers -- even if just represented through one season of play -- are encouraging.
Dreams of Jason Garrison getting off 100+ mph lasers on the power-play, joined by all-world talent Erik Karlsson at the hip should have Bryan Murray salivating.
The question: Can Ottawa beat out a bevvy of other suitors?
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