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Nail Biter

April 29, 2012, 4:26 AM ET [221 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I was bored, so I was looking around them Interwebs. Found an article by the Cult of Hockey's David Staples, suggesting the Oilers should deal their 1st overall pick for Jordan Staal.

Ummm, wut?

Staal is a solid center, don't get me wrong. He's also 25 and he'll be a UFA in a year. Is one year of Jordan Staal seriously all Nail Yakupov is worth?

My blogs gets trolled...a lot. I understand trolling...am rather proficient at it myself. I put up potential trade suggestions regarding Yakupov (I mean, the pick...Yakupov is the most likely use of it) because the Oilers need upgrades at center and on D more than they need another gifted offensive winger. The trolls; heck, it also could be non-trolls who have no idea what a future superstar is worth on the trade market, have laughed at my concepts and have offered truly sad suggestions in response. Staal for Yakupov. Seriously? That's sadder than most of the joke suggestions from the rabble. Yakupov will have more points in his rookie season than Staal's best year so far.

In an effort to influence your thinking with respect to Nail's value, I need to put this into perspective.

1. Nail Yakupov is absolutely 100% clearly the best prospect available at this year's draft. He's considered as a prospect at least on the same level as Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were, if not higher. Put it to you this way: He's a slightly smaller, faster, and more offensively gifted right-wing version of Hall. Would you deal Hall straight up for Staal? I don't think so.

2. This year's draft is, by all accounts, weak. Yakupov is the only player with superstar potential (so it seems). There are "decent" prospects: Ryan Murray, for example, has been described as being a solid future #2 defenseman. There are also skilled prospects who come with huge warning stickers. See Mikhail Grigorenko. There might be only one sure thing at this year's draft, and that's Yakupov. Do not under-estimate the value of a sure thing.

3. The biggest issue teams have in the NHL is scoring. Yakupov is scoring. For many teams, he'd be a solution. The only reason the Oilers should deal him is if they get a solution to one of their problems in return.

We established in my last blog that the Oilers are fairly well off on the right wing without drafting Yakupov. The current Top 6 right wingers are Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky. Ebs is among the top 5 in the league at his position, and Hemsky, if he ever fully returns to form, is anywhere from a .8 to .9 point-per-game player. A few years away are potentials Teemu Hartikainen and Magnus Paajarvi (who both can play either wing), plus Tyler Pitlick and emerging talent Tobias Rieder. Eberle is going to be with the Oilers for a while; it's fair to assume one of Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Pitlick or Rieder will be able to successfully fill the 2nd line RW role. Pitlick is perhaps the prospect who offers the most violence in the #2 RW position; Rieder perhaps is the best offensive talent.

So what is Yakupov's value? Debatable, I suppose. Yakupov's value is whatever a team is willing to offer for him. And believe me, a few significant offers will be made between now and Steve Tambellini calling out his name on draft day. Keep in mind the Oilers won't make a deal unless they get a player who can fix an issue. In this respect, Staples is right when he says Jordan Staal could come here. But for the Oilers to bite, there would have to be more. Much more. It would be one thing is Staal was 21, but his age and contract status completely alter his trade value.

Here's examples of what I think a plausible deal could look like:

- Yakupov to Toronto for Gardiner and TO's 1st round pick (5th overall). Although, I will say the odds that the Leafs deal Gardiner is almost zero. I don't think Schenn or Franson are enough to get this done, and I can't see the Oilers having interest in Kadri as part of a package. It's Jake or nothing.

- Yakupov to Ottawa for Zibanejad and Lehner. Zibanejad is the big #2 center the Oilers need, and Lehner is a future starting goalie.

- Yakupov to Boston for Lucic and Hamilton. Lucic is the muscle the Oilers crave in their Top 6, and Hamilton is a big, young stud defenseman who looks to be a future Top 4 D.

- Yakupov to Buffalo for Tyler Myers (keep in mind Buffalo's cap position and their wealth of D). This would be star-for-star.

Out of the four above listed deal ideas, are any plausible? Likely no. Perhaps Ottawa's is the most feasible, considering it looks like Alfredsson is about to retire and the Sens will need an offensive winger to replace him. TO's not going to deal Gardiner, I have a hard time seeing the Bruins part with Lucic (even though his occasional half-assed play angers Bruins coaches). Acquiring Myers is a dream for Oilersville.

The moral of the story? Teams aren't going to cough up an asset worthy of Yakupov's quality, and the Oilers aren't (and shouldn't) give him away in a desperate attempt to immediately improve the team. The worst possible outcome here is for the Oilers to undervalue the pick, and to give him away for something that won't improve the team for at least five seasons.

Yakupov might not be the big 2nd line center or the top pairing defenseman the Oilers need, but a star player is a star player. You don't just give those away. And if I'm Tambellini, I'm not shopping Yakupov. Instead, I'm waiting for people to call with ideas, because bidding wars are fun.
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