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By the Numbers: Ottawa Taking Game to Top-Seeded New York

April 19, 2012, 3:17 PM ET [69 Comments]
Travis Yost
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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Through four games in the first-round series, the Ottawa Senators have led for precisely zero minutes and zero seconds. And yet, I think fan bases of the respective teams involved in this suddenly intriguing one-versus-eight draw would admit that the team that has yet to play with said lead has - at least through the first four matches - controlled play.

Last night's results - a 3-2 overtime victory by Ottawa, leading to a wildly-important equalizer in the series - ensure that this series is going six, and possibly all seven games. As expected.

See, while the two were separated by seventeen points in the Eastern Conference standings, there were an assortment of red flags raised well before puck drop. New York may very well be the better of the two teams, but they did not have a quality match-up in a young Ottawa team that was one of the few willing to battle every step of the way.

Below, nine thoughts on a series that's arguably the most enthralling in the first-round of the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

1.) Kyle Turris' perfectly-placed rocket on Henrik Lundqvist in extra-time on Wednesday was the kind of finish Ottawa Senators fans have been searching for all season long. Turris has actually had a pretty quality season since being traded from Phoenix to the Canadian capital, but his totals - 12G/17A - don't really do him justice.

Turris doesn't have a ton of deficiencies in his game, but I think one element the collective can agree on is that his finishing in and around the net will be a key development area for the Ottawa Senators coaching staff in the off-season. Turris is a walking scoring-opportunity, and hopefully with another season under his belt and a summer regiment dedicating to adding some size to his 6'1", 180 lb. frame, he'll inch closer to becoming that dynamic 2LC Bryan Murray's been searching for.

2.) Speaking of Kyle Turris' rocket: How did this become a green-light for New York Rangers fans to turn Henrik Lundqvist into a scapegoat? Not only do I think that few - if any - goalies are making a stop on a screened, triple-digit MPH rip, the guy has been absolutely sensational through four games played. In fact, without Henrik Lundqvist, I'm not sure Ottawa isn't ahead 3-1 in this series.

You can point to his paltry overtime splits or search for alternative, potentially-damning numbers all you want - the guy has been a rock for the Blueshirts in this series. His 1.97 GAA through four games played is the exact same split posted through sixty-two looks in the regular season. His .940 save percentage is is demonstrably better than his .930 save percentage in the same sample.

Blaming Henrik Lundqvist for anything so far in this series is - quite frankly - astounding. Perhaps more of the blame should fall on the New York Rangers skaters, who are letting the Ottawa Senators dictate the play during lengthy spurts.

Ottawa's out-chanced New York at even-strength 66-58. They've dominated the possession game, often hemming New York in the defensive third for a minute-plus. Hell, in one of the more tightly-contested games of the series last night, New York had to block thirty(!) shots. Ottawa? Just eight.

Now, that's been the Rangers modus operandi all season long. But, it sure puts a hell of a lot of pressure on your defense/goaltending combination when they're constantly under siege.

3.) John Tortorella hasn't exactly made his team's game-plan a secret through the first four games. It's Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi v. Ottawa's top-line, and that's pretty much it.

Ottawa fans were growing a bit restless with the play of Jason Spezza, et al. up top, and through four games, the talented center has just a pair of assists - one primary, and one secondary.

Milan Michalek, at least before his game-changing goal courtesy of a Matt Carkner feed, hadn't done a whole lot in terms of scoring up front. In the first three games of the series, Michalek had just one assist, coming on a meaningless goal late in the third period.

Now, it's not unfair to expect timely scoring from your best players, especially with your team's leader - Daniel Alfredsson - on the mend with concussion symptoms. Paul MacLean was enthusiastic about the way both Spezza and Michalek had played, but the points simply weren't (aren't?) showing up in the stat sheet.

In fairness to both of them, though, they're constantly rolling against New York's shutdown pairing. So much so, it's almost amusing. Michalek and Spezza are drawing the McDonagh/Girardi pairing on three of every four shifts at even strength. Tortorella's plan? Cut the fourth-ranked scoring offense at the head, and hope there's trickle-down effect in Ottawa's ranks.

Quite obviously, there's a trade-off here. With Tortorella's two prized defenseman logging essentially every minute against Ottawa's top-line, the second, third, and fourth lines for the Senators continue to draw against the lessers of New York. On paper, it makes sense. But, with the way Ottawa's carrying the play on their other lines, we could very well see a strategical change by Tortorella in the coaching staff in preparation for game five.

Something to keep an eye on.

4.) Here's an amusing statistic. Only two players on the Ottawa Senators roster (three games played minimum) have logged equal or positive even-strength scoring opportunities in the series in every game played. One? Milan Michalek. Two? Zenon Konopka.

Regarding Michalek, it's worth noting that his lack of finish - at least prior to game four - may have been more unlucky than anything else. Michalek's also a pretty gifted two-way player, and does a tremendous job back-checking and limiting the scoring opportunities from the opposition.

As for Zenon Konopka - well, talk about a rebirth. I've been brutally tough on Konopka all year for his inability to do much outside of winning draws and collecting PIMs like they were baseball cards, but he's really turned into an impact player in this series. Yes, you read that right. An impact player.

Not only is Konopka terrorizing the Rangers in the circle(68.6%, best in the Stanley Cup Playoffs), he's playing an integral role on the specialty units, logging a shade under the four-minute mark in total per game.

Did I mention Konopka hasn't been on the ice for an even-strength goal against yet this series? Terrifying, and true.

5.) The debate over who lost the more important player in the Carl Hagelin and Daniel Alfredsson fiasco is foolish. Hagelin's a dynamic talent, but Alfredsson's far more polished on both ends of the ice, and wears the 'C' on his uniform for a reason.

With that said, the absence of Hagelin in the New York forward ranks is growing quite noticeable. When Hagelin joined the fray for New York in his rookie season, the team possession numbers shot up the charts. His Relative Corsi (10.3) was best amongst qualified players on the Blueshirts roster this season - a statistic that measures possession relative to team's average output.

Down Hagelin, the Rangers' scoring lines look a bit out of sync, and as a result, it's given Ottawa even more room to work up-and-down the ice. Hagelin doesn't return until game six, which means more trouble could be on the horizon come Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

6.) While we're on the topic of Daniel Alfredsson, the captain is reportedly feeling a bit better on Thursday and has been working out on his own. Still no word on his potential return, as his status remains unchanged. Yet, one has to wonder if the captain is eying a Saturday night return on Hockey Night in Canada. Standard concussion recovery protocol dictates at least a week in recovery from head trauma, and that'd just make the cut.

I wouldn't pencil in #11 just yet, though. As important as a series win would be to the franchise, an organization should never prioritize itself over the health of a player. Daniel Alfredsson's second head-injury of the season - both coming against the New York Rangers - has to put quite the scare in the front office and coaching staff. Ottawa's largely been looked at as a player-friendly organization for years, and there's no way they're going to let the most respected man in franchise history seriously risk his short and long-term health.

Hopefully, we'll know a bit more by Friday.

7.) Jim O'Brien and Erik Condra don't have a ton of offensive upside in their game, but both are turning into premier penalty killers, and the play of both in this series is just one of many examples of Ottawa secondary and/or tertiary skaters out-working their New York comparables.

Down a man, O'Brien and Condra have already logged 23 minutes in penalty kill time through four games played, and yet have allowed just one goal total between the two. They're constantly pressuring the puck, clearing the zone when necessary, and carrying the puck up ice if the opportunity presents itself.

Need that quantified? Look at Erik Condra's zone start/finish numbers. He starts on the penalty kill in the defensive third about 94% of the time, yet finishes his shift in the offensive zone almost 17% of the time. When he's killing penalties, the puck is moving in the direction of Henrik Lundqvist - not Craig Anderson.

O'Brien hasn't been as dominant, but there's plenty of numbers that speak highly of his game in this series. Looking at O'Brien's Quality of Competition, he's facing the highest caliber of any player on the Ottawa Senators roster, relatively speaking. MacLean continues to match him against superior talent, but he's doing an excellent job of answering the bell.

By the way, it was O'Brien who set up Turris' overtime winner in game four with that excellent zone-entry and drop-pass.

8.) With all due respect to Brian Boyle and Craig Anderson, the two best players on the ice game-in and game-out are Henrik Lundqvist of the New York Rangers and Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators.

As mentioned above, Lundqvist's been sensational in this series, and is probably the only reason why New York isn't facing elimination in game five. In a microcosm, look at his third-period stop on Chris Phillips. How many goalies are getting pipe-to-pipe like that to keep the game tied and give his team another chance? Very, very few.

On Karlsson, it has to be unnerving for the Rangers coaching staff to watch him dominate up and down the ice. In game one, I thought Karlsson was a bit tentative, and a bit too conservative in his own zone. The result? Scoring chances the way of New York.

Since then, his game has taken off. Defensively, he's been sound, using his blazing speed and filthy stick-work to frustrate the Rangers attackers. Watching him hawk Ryan Callahan after an Ottawa offensive zone turnover was both awesome and expected. That's the kind of defensive play Senators fans have grown accustomed to.

Offensively, Karlsson has just one goal in four games, but he's been cookin' the Rangers defense with regularity. With so much attention paid to Jason Spezza, et al., the Blueshirts have opted to force the twenty-one year old to take the game into his own hands. And, has he ever. On countless occasions, Karlsson's corraled the puck in the defensive third, blazed through the neutral zone untouched, and generated sustained offensive zone pressure with essentially any line rolled out by Paul MacLean.

By the way, Karlsson's going to work against the McDonagh and Girardi pairing, too. More than half of his even strength shifts are against the two dynamic defenders.

Through four games, Karlsson's been on the ice for twenty-six(!) total scoring chances at even strength. There's no comparable, if you're wondering. He's gotten off twenty-four shots on net, and that's just a fraction of what he's throwing the way of Henrik Lundqvist, often looking for a redirect tip or cross-ice pass.

If New York continues to bottle up the Ottawa forwards, Karlsson must continue to drive the Rangers back into their zone and firmly plant them on their heels. So far, he's doing an excellent job.

9.) Lastly, I'll end on this stunning note. Jakob Silfverberg just broke Daniel Alfredsson's playoff goal-scoring record in the SEL, potting his 13th with Brynas IF. There's a real chance he could be en route to Ottawa, too.

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Back with more tomorrow. As always, thanks for reading!

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