The time that all hockey fans crave has arrived...the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
All of the sixteen remaining teams have their numbers reset to zero in the hopes of winning 16 games and lifting Lord Stanley's Mug over their heads.
For the 21st consecutive season, the Detroit Red Wings have their lottery ticket in hand, hoping in the end it results in a magical Stanley Cup send off for their legendary rearguard,
Nicklas Lidstrom.
It was a mere seven weeks ago when the Detroit Red Wings were among the first teams mentioned by hockey pundits across the continent when proclaiming favorites to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. A 41-17-2 record through the first 60 games of the season included an NHL record 23 consecutive home victories.
However, a rash of injuries over the final 2 months of the campaign contributed to a poor 7-11-4 finishing kick from the Red Wings, which saw them go for contending for the NHL President's Trophy and top spot in the Western Conference to fighting for home-ice advantage during the opening round of the post-season up until the final contest of the regular season.
As a result of the disappointing conclusion to the regular season, the Detroit Red Wings have drawn the fifth seed in the Western Conference against everyone's apparent new darling, the Nashville Predators. Following the trade deadline acquisitions of
Andrei Kostitsyn,
Paul Gaustad and
Hal Gill, along with the return of
Alexander Radulov to an already competent lineup, the Predators seem to be a favorite for many observers when selecting a "darkhorse" Stanley Cup contender. In contrast to the Red Wings, Nashville finished 13-7-2 over their final 22 games.
Suddenly, after a seven-week stretch which saw the Wings play without arguably their top three players (Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Howard) in the lineup for significant amounts of time, the Red Wings are a slight underdog in their opening round playoff series?
Let's breakdown the two combatants prior to tonight's drop of the puck for Game 1 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville (8:00pm ET, Fox Sports Detroit, CBC)
Season Series – Tied at 3-3
Nov. 26 at Detroit - Detroit 4-1
Dec. 15 at Nashville - Nashville 4-3
Dec. 26 at Nashville - Detroit 4-1
Feb. 17 at Detroit - Detroit 2-1
Mar. 10 at Nashville - Nashville 3-2
Mar. 30 at Detroit - Nashville 4-1
Although regular season results don't always help predict a playoff series outcome, these Central Division rivals split their six-game series evenly with each team going 2-1 on home ice. Detroit held a slight 17-13 advantage in goals, but the Predators have won the two most recent meetings in March. Those extra points helped enable the Predators to garner home-ice advantage in this series, which could prove to be critical when this series is all said and done.
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OFFENSE - DET (7th): 2.92/game, NSH (8th): 2.83/game
Both teams have been able to put the puck in the back of the net this season, as evidenced by their top 10 standing within the league for goals scored. However, both teams have gone cold on occasion this season. Despite having arthroscopic knee surgery in February,
Pavel Datsyuk is still the stir that mixes the drink offensively on most nights for the Red Wings.
Henrik Zetterberg rebounded from a slow start to the campaign to average a point per game over the second half of the season.
This season also saw the development of
Valteri Filppula's offensive game with career-highs in goals, assists and points.
Jiri Hudler saw extensive time within the team's top six forwards this year and produced a career high 25 goals, second only to team leader and playoff performer,
Johan Franzen (29).
Nashville has a committee approach in handling the scoring, with 11 players having over 30 points during the regular season, including 8 forwards with over 15 goals. Furthermore, don't forget the addition of Radulov near season's end, as he contributed 7 points in 9 games and seemed to quickly make the adjustment back to the NHL game after several years in the KHL in Russia.
Both teams get ample contributions from the blueliners chipping in offensively, with both teams among the league leaders in goals scored by defensemen.
EDGE: Detroit
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DEFENSE – DET (7th): 2.44/game, NSH (9th): 2.50/game
The Red Wings made significant strides in returning to among the league's best defensive clubs following a sloppy 2010-11 regular season, when they were ranked 23rd in the league in goals allowed.
Paramount to that decline has been the strong goaltending of
Jimmy Howard. Once discussed as a leading contender for the Vezina Trophy this season, his final two months were sidetracked by a thumb injury and tweaked groin that the Red Wings cautiously dealt with.
In addition, Detroit still possesses a fine top foursome of Lidstrom, Kronwall, Stuart and White on the blueline, along with the addition of
Kyle Quincey to help solidify the third pairing alongside
Jonathan Ericsson.
Meanwhile, Nashville has always been known for their strong defensive play under coach
Barry Trotz. It's common for teams to struggle to maintain the discipline and consistent work ethic required to repeatedly remain in the Top 10 in goals against.
Leading the way for Nashville defensively is their pair of stud blueliners in
Shea Weber and
Ryan Suter, along with goaltender
Pekka Rinne. Yet the Predators depth on the blueline is vastly underrated and the addition of a proven playoff defender like
Hal Gill should only make life more difficult for the Red Wing forwards.
EDGE: Even
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SPECIAL TEAMS
PP: DET (22nd): 16.1%, NSH (1st): 21.6%
PK: DET (18th): 81.8%, NSH (10th): 83.6%
As is the case often times during most playoff series, this area could be the aspect of the game where this series is won or lost. Both penalty killing units have been relatively effective this season, with the Red Wings improving over the latter portion of the season and having killed off 25 consecutive penalties. However, in facing the league’s top ranked power-play in Nashville, the Red Wings PK will have to continue that type of effectiveness if they want to win this series.
Jimmy Howard will have to once again be the Wings top penalty-killer.
Meanwhile, Detroit has struggled uncharacteristically on the power-play all season long. The coaching staff has continued to harp on puck retrieval being vital to not limit their entries into the offensive zone to only one shot attempt. If the struggling Detroit PP unit cannot convert at close to a 20% clip in this series, their chances of winning the series will be substantially diminished.
EDGE: Nashville
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INTANGIBLES
It's no secret that Wing fans are feeling uneasy heading into Game 1 of this playoff series. Without the security blanket of home-ice advantage, many people are expecting the Red Wings to fail in the opening round given they have the worst road record (17-21-3) of any playoff team in the West.
Awaiting them tonight will be a raucous crowd at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
Predator fans HATE the Detroit Red Wings. Their fans are ready for the Preds to take that next step after winning a playoff round last spring and pushing the conference champion Vancouver Canucks to six games. In their eyes, there is no better way to start their march to a franchise best playoff run than by defeating the hated Red Wings in round 1.
The Predators as a team are very hungry. After getting that taste of playoff hockey last spring and the aggressive deadline moves made by management, the time is now in Nashville.
Meanwhile, a fair number of the Red Wings have been here before and know full well that tonight is when the games truly matter. Of note is the fact the injuries the Red Wings sustained could actually be blessings in disguise.
Jimmy Howard was on pace for a record number of games played until his injuries shut him down.
Nicklas Lidstrom almost missed more games this season than he had missed in his entire career.
So with their batteries re-charged and their legs a bit fresher than in past playoff runs, do the Red Wings have one final “run” in them with Lidstrom in the fold? Do we see the Red Wing team that raced out to 84 points through the first 60 games OR the team that struggled to get to the finish with 18 points in its last 22 games.
It seems everyone expects the latter, but I actually think Detroit may thrive in its underdog role. Aside from
Daniel Cleary, who will not be healthy at any point during the post-season, the Wings are as healthy as can be. With the possible return of
Darren Helm either tonight or Friday in Nashville, the Red Wings are getting healthy at just the right time.
EDGE: Even
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I'm a firm believer that Detroit's mediocre finish was due to the absence of their three best players from the lineup at various stages. Prior to that, they were on everyone’s short list to make a deep run in the postseason.
Although Mike Babcock will likely not have to rally the troops to commence this series as all of the players appear to be chomping on the bit to begin the countdown from the 16 wins necessary to clutch the Stanley Cup, the table does seem to be set for the Predators to finally get the monkey off their back and finally beat the hated Red Wings in a playoff series. For me, special teams will be crucial. Detroit has been terrific most of the season playing at even-strength. If they can match Nashville when it comes to special team situations, I really like Detroit’s chances in this series.
However, the Predators are more than capable of winning this series given the strength of their power-play and fantastic goaltending from Rinne. In the end, I just think that too many people are putting stock in Detroit’s final 22 injury-plagued contests and not their rather impressive 60 contests that preceded that stretch.
Time to be the contrarian.
PREDICTION: Detroit in 6
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Other first round playoff predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Vancouver in 6 games over (8) Los Angeles
(2) St. Louis in 6 games over (7) San Jose
(6) Chicago in 7 games over (3) Phoenix
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) New York Rangers over (8) Ottawa in 6 games
(2) Boston over (7) Washington in 5 games
(6) New Jersey over (3) Florida in 6 games
(4) Pittsburgh over (5) Philadelphia in 7 games
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