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A Quick Look Ahead

February 29, 2012, 4:39 PM ET [14 Comments]
Travis Yost
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Much to the annoyance of the superstitious few who will point to this blog if the Ottawa Senators enter tailspin late in the season, today's blog - the first of its kind in the 2011-2012 season - will talk a bit about the Ottawa Senators as a playoff team.

After Tuesday's regulation win against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden, the Ottawa Senators moved above the 96% mark regarding their playoff likelihood. In short: Ottawa's probably - inching closer to definitely - going to play, at the minimum, eighty-six games this season. And, potentially more.

Few could've envisioned this kind of season from a young Ottawa Senators team that was supposedly in the midst of a long and painful rebuild. Even the optimistic crowds who didn't buy into this club as lottery-bound couldn't have pictured a run like this.

Naturally, it's important to note that there's still plenty of games to be played, and that Ottawa could just as easily make a run at the Northeast division as they could fall back into the middle of the pack and fight for dear life through eighty-two games.

As it stands right now, though, Ottawa's heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Amazing sentence, huh?

Since I'll be devoting a good portion of my time over the next two days to pen a response to one of MC79Hockey's columns (a scathing indictment of Erik Karlsson's productivity and output as an offensive defenseman this year), today's blog will focus on potential first-round match-ups - even if a bit premature.

Why the blog on the final day in February? Well, a quick perusal of the percentages suggest that there's two more-than-likely candidates for the Ottawa Senators to draw in the first-round.

And, it'll serve as a bit more salt in the wound for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have watched their playoff stock plummet like the Dow Jones.

Just kidding, guys. It's all Ontario love in here.

Back to the point. The two opponents? Northeast division-leading Boston Bruins(28.6% likely) and the Southeast division leading Florida Panthers(21.8% likely). With almost 50% tied into two teams, the other twelve clubs combine for the additional 50%, led by the Pittsburgh Penguins(13%) and New York Rangers(10%).

Even after Ottawa's win against Boston on Tuesday night, there's not one rationale Senators fan that could really want to play the defending Stanley Cup champions. The previous win aside, Boston's dominated the season series, lighting up Ottawa with a tenacious forecheck that puts a ton of pressure on the oft-shaky Senators blue line.

The goal differential is just as ugly. In five games, Boston's still running a +8 advantage (19-11), and considering Tim Thomas' career splits v. Ottawa (23-9-2 record, .937 save percentage, 1.98 GAA), that's probably a bit lucky on the Senators' end.

Boston's 'struggles', as painted by the local media, are a bit exaggerated. As indicated by Bruins blogger Ty Anderson earlier in the day, Boston's on the exact same points pace as they were a season ago. And, remember - that team won the Stanley Cup.

The Bruins are so difficult to play against because of depth at key positions, incredible physicality, and superb goaltending. Even in games where Boston's opposition emerges victorious, the cold ice baths become a necessity. It's not a team you want to draw in a seven-game gauntlet, no matter how good or bad they are playing coming into the fray.

On the other side, the Florida Panthers (30-20-12, 72 PTS) are still fighting for dear life in the laughably-mediocre Southeast division. Florida's a talented team with a top-six that could give Ottawa fits, but their peripherals pale in comparison to those of Boston. Consider some of the numbers:

BOS GF: 2nd in NHL
FLA GF: 24th in NHL

BOS GA: 4th in NHL
FLA GA: 14th in NHL

BOS PP: 13th in NHL
FLA PP: 9th in NHL

BOS PK: 7th in NHL
FLA PK: 24th in NHL

Aside from a marginally better man advantage, the Florida Panthers really can't hold a candle to the Boston Bruins as a team, and that's not really a slight of any kind. The Panthers have been banged up all year, rely far too much on top-end scoring(four players 40+ points in Versteeg/Weiss/Flash/Campbell, with next closest at 25[Garrison]), and employ a goaltending combination of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen that's been solid, yet incredibly unspectacular.

Oh, one more thing: Ottawa's undefeated against Florida this season - a complete 180 to their lack of success against division-rival Boston.

What point am I driving home here? Well, for starters, Florida's the better first-round draw, assuming Ottawa reaches the playoffs. But, that much is pretty obvious.

The underlying point here? For the many of you who watch the scoreboard, the divisional race - while intriguing - is a real long shot. As such, your allegiances outside of Ottawa right now should lie with any team playing against the likes of New Jersey/Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, rather than any team playing against the likes of Boston.

Ottawa can benefit from moving up in the standings. As they do so, their likelihood of drawing the Bruins in the first-round diminshes, and their likelihood of drawing the Panthers(or another Southeast divisional club) increases.

Worst-case scenario moving ahead? Ottawa slots into a five-seed and draws an Atlantic team like New Jersey, Pittsburgh, or Philadelphia. Considering the Senators track record against those three teams v. their track record against the Bruins, I think that's a desirable outcome, too.

Just some food for thought. Enjoy your Wednesday.

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