Habs Barely .500 without #79
Since the start of the season, a question has been on my mind.
At first it was just a little bit of curiosity on behalf of a guy who covers two teams very closely, a thought about the longevity and endurance of both the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals premiere defensemen. And though I was prepared to move on from that thought as both Markov and Green were supposed to be back in action this season, it was more of a laugh to think of how both clubs would be without #79 and #52 as there was little doubt they would be back.
Well, as it turns out, those thoughts never went away because the idea of Andrei Markov or Mike Green returning to make an impact for either club this season has yet to materialize.
While Green returned for 10 games this season and is approaching a return to the Caps,
which you can read about here, Andrei Markov's status remains equally uncertain as there is no discernible pace to his recovery.
Moving away from the Capitals situation and over to Montreal's, as this is the Habs blog, of course, we have to take the time to understand what kind of an impact Andrei Markov has had on the Canadiens over the past 5 seasons.
To be fair, I compared Markov and Green equally, beginning with the 2007-08 season as that was the last time either #79 or #52 played a full 82 games.
Since that time, neither has managed to complete a full season, though Markov has missed nearly a full season more than Green since then.
To get you started, here is recap of how the Canadiens have fared coming in to tonight's contest with the Boston Bruins, dating back to beginning of the '07/08 season.
In 385 games played, the Montreal Canadiens are 194-143-48 since 2007-08.
Since then, Andrei Markov has played a total of 212 games, helping the Habs to a record of 117-68-27 when in the lineup.
The injured Markov has missed 173 of those 385 games, and Montreal's felt the loss as they have managed to boast a record barely over .500 of 77-75-21.
Incredibly, that's a total of 261 points in 212 games with Markov in the lineup and a total of 175 points in 173 games without him.
Amazed yet?
In those 212 games played, the Habs #1 defender registered 35 goals and 124 assists for 159 points, or a ppg rate of 0.75 points per game. Of those 159 points, 53% came on special teams as he registered 21 goals and 82 points on the power play, as well as 5 points shorthanded.
Notably, as Markov goes, so too do the Canadiens.
Remembering that 2007-08 season, Markov played all 82 games and led Montreal to a record of 47-25-1, good for 104 points and top spot in the Eastern Conference. Quarterbacking their success, the Russian defenseman picked up a tidy 58 points while playing 24:58 a night and leading Montreal to be the best power play in the NHL (24.1%).
The following year, 2008-09, Markov was nearly perfect, playing in 78 of 82 Canadiens games before suffering his first debilitating injury. The Habs did not enjoy a great year, finishing with 93 points and squeaking into the first round only to be swept by the Bruins, Markov still enjoyed his most productive season in the NHL, earning 12 goals and 52 assists for 64 points in 78 games played. Leading the team in ice-time once again, skating 24:37 a night, his absence in the post-season was such a blow to team confidence they barely showed up for their 1st round date with the Bruins.
Casting aside the Centennial season debacle, in which the virtually self-destructed after such a promising start, the Habs enjoyed a complete overhaul and though the 2009-10 season itself was not all that promising, were it not for Markov's presence in 45 regular season games, Montreal would have never had the opportunity to enjoy their Cinderella run to the Conference Finals.
In 2009-10, Andrei Markov played in only 45 games, picking up 6 goals and 28 assists for 34 points while playing 23:48 a night. Picking up 16 power play points in those 45 games, the Canadiens posted a record of 25-13-7 with #79 in the lineup, good for 57 of their 88 points on the season, while in the 37 games without him, Montreal was 6 games under .500, posting a record of 14-20-3, earning but 31 points in 37 games.
The difference, 1.267 points earned per game with Markov in lineup versus 0.837 points earned per game without Markov, ultimately made the difference on the year for the Habs as had #79 been unable to play in the final 44 games of the regular season, there's no telling if they would have even come close to playoff berth.
Combined with Markov's presence and the impact he had on helping propel the team to their greatest playoff run since 1993, he also helped push the Habs to the 2nd best power play in the NHL in '09-10 with a success rate of 218% while the PK finished 12th with an 83.0% success rate.
Suffering another season ending injury in the 1st game against of their series against the Penguins, Montreal pushed past Pittsburgh on emotion alone, though without his presence moving forward, they simply weren't the same team.
Having missed but 41 regular season games over the last 3 seasons, Markov had guided the Habs to a record of 133-65-18 in 205 games. That's twice as many wins as losses in the span of 3 seasons.
Fast forward to last season and so begins Montreal's true reign of the "unknown."
Playing in only 7 games before leaving the team for, what seems like, forever, management was left to scramble and fill the void Markov's absence would create.
Patch-working through trades, as has been the case since he re-injured his knee against Eric Staal only 7 games into 2010-11, Markov left the Canadiens without the one piece that seemed to guide the team to success.
Since that time, the Canadiens have compiled a record of 63-52-17 in 132 straight games.
Incredibly, were it not for the emergence of James Wisniewksi last season, including PK Subban's, the Markov effect would have been far greater for the Canadiens.
Ultimately buoyed by outstanding play from other defenders, luck has run out in 2011-12 as Pierre Gauthier's attempts to insulate Subban and replace Markov have been far from successful as Chris Campoli and Tomas Kaberle have been far from the players Wisniewski and Subban were the season before. To wit, neither brings the offensive and physical presence of Wisniewski nor the "presence" to help guide a wide-eyed star in the making in Subban.
The results? Well, 2 games under .500 with the worst power play in the NHL should tell you just about all you need to know.
Folks point out that Markov may no longer be the same player when he returns, but if you want to really think about what he brings to this team and what his presence does to their playoff chances, all you have to do is look at how the Montreal Canadiens play when #79 is in the lineup.
Since 2007-08, the Canadiens have earned 436 points in 385 regular season games (194-143-48).
Andrei Markov has played in only 212 of those games, but the Habs have earned 60% of their points in those games (261 points).
Tell me again what Andrei Markov's value to this team is once again?
Looking forward, there's no telling what Markov can or will bring to the Canadiens as a healthy defender.
The decision to resign him clearly bringing about some of the harshest criticism and scrutiny in the hockey world, given the numbers, you have to wonder, would you not have made the same decision yourself?
Retaining Markov was a no-brainer if only because when considering who this team is with him and who they are without him leaves you with night and day.
With a healthy #79 in the lineup, the Canadiens aren't just a playoff team but a contender. A team capable of winning twice as many games as losing.
Without him, the Habs are barely a .500 team. A club bereft of the guidance required to make its system work.
So while I can appreciate that his current injury troubles put his future into a state of confusion, I can't see the value in having let him go.
Yes, the Canadiens have missed out on "finding" players to replace him because they have retained him, but are you really going to tell me they would have found an equivalent talent who they wouldn't have had to pay more?
The bottom line is that Andrei Markov is the X-factor that makes this lineup work, that makes this system work and that gives this team the confidence they need to succeed.
It's been a brutal battle without him and while there are plenty of talented players on the roster, the truth is that Markov was the one who connected all the dots between them all.
Whatever the outcome of this season may be, there's no doubt that if Andrei Markov plays this season the Montreal Canadiens will be better in those games. Furthermore, with this season's playoff hopes losing traction, the real focus and hope should be in rehabbing Markov to the utmost of his abilities so that Montreal won't have to do without the engine that pulls this team forward.
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