Back in August or September, I forget which, I posted a few predicitions on this blog that, were it the 18th century, would have had me hung from a yardarm in the town square.
I bring this up because I'm about to make another bold prediction or two, but before I do, let's look back at what I said then:
First of all, the thing that drove the most people nuts - especially the Toronto faithful - was my assertion that the Leafs spent far too much money on average at best defensemen. That they actually put together a nice collection of young forwards that can score, but that the defense would be their Achillies Heel.
I was called an idiot and told defense would be the Leafs strength and that aside from Sundin, they would have trouble scoring.
So far - the Leafs have scored 87 goals - third best in the NHL, but have allowed 79 - seventh worst in the league, and 15th of the 16 teams that would be in the postseason if it started today.
And while they sit in 2nd place as of this writing, don't let that fool you. They've played 25 games and won 13. That's one game over .500, and that's pretty mediocre.
I think I'm vindicated thus far.
Secondly, I said despite all the big splashes in free agency and through trades, I still wasn't impressed with Boston or Minnesota and that both would struggle to make the playoffs if not miss them alltogether.
OK, so I went one-for-two there.
Boston has been as bad as predicted. But Minnesota has been better than I thought, although they're not among the upper echelon of teams in the NHL despite their fast start.
Still, I was accurate about Kim Johnsson. Two goals, eight assists, 10 points in 23 games and he's a minus-4. Hardly a $4.5 million player.
So, I'm batting .667. I'll take it.
Now, for what I wanted to predict today:
Get ready...
OK, the Montreal Canadiens are the biggest threat to the Buffalo Sabres to reach the Stanley Cup Finals.
So much so, that they may even be better than Buffalo when all is said and done.
Wow. I almost can't believe I typed it.
But, believe it. Guy Carbonneau has done an outstanding job of turning a team that was never known to be gritty (some might have called them soft in the past) and turned them into a scary good hockey club.
I watched them lose 4-2 to the Flyers at Bell Centre in Montreal Saturday and aside from a less than stellar second period, the Habs were the better team.
They were foiled by a new defensive scheme the Flyers are employing and a stellar goaltending performance by Antero Niittymaki, otherwise they were the better team on the ice.
Starting with special teams, their penalty kill is relentless, which is how Carbonneau used to play when his teams were a man down.
They created more chances in the first period against the Flyers power play unit than the Flyers did them. They have the third best kill in the NHL and lead the league in shorthanded goals with seven.
On the flip side, their power play is potent and generates a bevy of chances. They rank sixth in the league and are paced from the point by the awesome shot of Sheldon Souray, who has seven man advantage goals from the blue line already.
In net, Cristobal Huet has been nothing short of remarkable. He's 8-2-2 with a 2.10 GAA which is impressive enough, but his save percentage is an eye-popping .935.
And their scoring is well-balanced throughout the lineup. They don't have a double digit goal scorer, but they have seven players with at least five goals at the quarter pole, suggesting they all could conceiveably score 20.
Aside from the numbers, the thing that can't be measured statistically is determination, hustle and energy, and boy do the Habs have those.
They hit hard, they arrive at the puck with a physical mindset. They win a lot of 50/50 battles along the walls. They create turnovers, they can skate, and they can pressure the opposition into making mistakes.
Those of you in Buffalo should know this well, because they frustrated the hell out of you Friday night.
For a team that averages more than four goals a game to be held to just one, on home ice no less, is a credit to the visiting team.
Is Buffalo still the odds on favorite? You bet. I've only seen them twice, and it was against the Flyers, so I don't think it's fair to judge them on those performances.
However, I've spoken with people in Buffalo who are around the team every day and they say it's hard to believe, but the Sabres have had stretches of bad hockey this year and have just figured oout ways to overcome them and win games.
That's the mark of a good team.
But Montreal's a good team too. Make no mistake about it. And I think both Carbonneau and G.M. Bob Gainey know it.
Something tells me if they feel there's a move to make at the trade deadline that can get them over the top, then they'll do it, even if they are kind of close to the salary cap.
For the first time in a long time, the Canadiens are playing a style of hockey that the fans of their fine city deserve to see.
And something special could be the result of it.
Oh wait, I did say I'd make a second prediction didn't I?
Well, here it is...
The Sabres faithful will begin criticizing me en masse right about now...
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