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The Hotstove, Ed. 7: Bold Predictions! |
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Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.
On this gorgeous Saturday night, the blogger roundtable will roll the dice on some bold predictions for the upcoming season. As always, participation is highly encouraged, so stake your claim in the comment section below.
As for the participating bloggers tonight - well, we needed extra chairs. Joining us for the fun: Aaron Musick of the Colorado Avalanche, Richard Cloutier of the Edmonton Oilers, Todd Cordell of the New Jersey Devils, Bill Meltzer of the Philadelphia Flyers, Ty Anderson of the Boston Bruins, Adam French of the Phoenix Coyotes, Mark Spizziri of the Detroit Red Wings, and prospects blogger Brian Huddle.
A Table of Contents to help you navigate through this blog with ease:
1. The future of Shane Doan - Meltzer
2. The playoff hopes of the St. Louis Blues - Yost
3. The resurgence of Jonas Hiller - Cordell
4. The playoff hopes of the Toronto Maple Leafs - Anderson
5. The postseason run of the Edmonton Oilers - Cloutier
6. The rise of Matt Duchene - Musick
7. The potential of Jumbo Joe Thornton - French
8. The dominance of Ryan Getzlaf - Huddle
9. The playoff hopes of the Minnesota Wild - Spizziri
Without further ado, our bold predictions:
Bill Meltzer: Shane Doan will not be traded
Between the start of the season and the NHL trade deadline, I fully expect Ek to have numerous blogs on the Shane Doan "sweepstakes," as contending teams will inevitably jockey to add a highly respected veteran leader who adds size and two-way grit to the lineup.
I also fully expect that it will be repeated over and over that, while Doan has played his entire career in the Winnipeg/Phoenix franchise, he wants a chance to play for the Cup while his skills still enable him to be a significant contributor. The soon to be 35-year-old Doan (currently making $4.55 million on the salary cap) will become an unrestricted free agent after the season.
Given the uncertainty over Phoenix's future, the player may very well end up parting ways with the organization next summer.
However, I just have a feeling that it won't happen before he hits free agency. Here's why:
1) Doan has a no-movement clause, which has often hamstrung teams' efforts to get anything resembling full value in return because it severely limits their ability to shop the player and drive up the price tag on the return.
2) Phoenix has been a playoff team the last two years and may be in the hunt again (although they have more question marks this offseason than a year ago). They may need their captain more down the stretch than they need whatever would be coming back beyond next season.
3) How many impending UFAs have stonewalled potential trades by refusing to waive their NTC/NMC? Every year near the trade deadline, there are many rumors about such players only wanting to go to Team A or Team B. Most of the time, they end staying put.
4) Doan realizes full well that there is no such thing as a guaranteed Stanley Cup, regardless of whichever team he would be traded to. Of course he'd like to play for a Cup contender. But that's not the only consideration he'd have to weigh before waiving his NMC to go elsewhere.
Travis Yost: The St. Louis Blues make the playoffs
When you play in arguably the toughest division in hockey, every point counts. There's not going to be a ton of room for error in the Western Conference again this season, but especially in the Central division, where three teams are of unquestionable playoff talent, and two others figure to factor heavily into the mix for all eighty-two games.
The Blues - last year - lost an unfathomable amount of man games due to injury, and yet still threw up some respectable numbers by the end of the season. They had to deal with a large core of players sidelined indefinitely, obscure coaching decisions by Davis Payne, and a subpar season by the likes of Jaroslav Halak. Even with every regression factored in, the team simply wasn't all that bad.
This team could and should progress to its natural mean, and just looking at the roster, it's hard to pick out that many teams in the NHL with a better set of players top to bottom. There's no elite talent, but there's just so many various contributors at each level that make this team an absolute terror to play against. And, finally, the Blues have a bona fide #1 goaltender in Jaroslav Halak, meaning that even on off nights, they should contribute.
The 'dark horse' label has been slapped on the Blues for a few years now, but this is the first season I actually feel confident in picking them to reach the playoffs. In years past, the youth on this team showed tremendously, and far too often the club let one bad period essentially decide the outcome of a game against their favor. Now, with more experience under their belt and a committed group of players ready to restore winning ways in St. Louis, I'm going to go on record and slot this team inside - check that, well inside - of the top eight.
Strength wise, this team's going to rest its laurels on four quality lines up top. Getting David Perron back healthy is enormous for this team, but even if it takes the Sherbrooke, QC native some time to restore to normalcy, they should have enough talent up top to make up for the temporary loss.
Last year, I pegged the Blues as one of the two teams to surprise in the Western Conference, and I'm sticking by that again this year. This Blues team is just oozing with talent, but last year, the injury bug bit hard and didn't let go. David Perron is still a major question mark heading into next year, but assuming he's not ready to go, they can still roll a quality four lines.
Even with one of their best talents in Perron sidelined, the four lines should roll as follows:
McDonald-Backes-Stewart
Oshie-Berglund-D'Agostini
Steen-Arnott-Langenbrunner
Sobotka-Nichol-Crombeen
You can mix and match that as you please, but the general thought here is that it's tough to deny what those twelve are capable of.
Defensively, there's a nice mix of young talent and veteran presence. Alex Pietrangelo is one of the big rising prospects in the NHL today, but he's not the only young gunner on the back-end. Don't marginalize what Kevin Shattenkirk is and what he can develop into; truly like his game top-to-bottom.
Rounding out the back six includes veterans Barret Jackman, Roman Polak, Carlo Colaiacavo, Ian Cole, Kent Huskins, and Nikita Nikitin. Yes, that's eight guys more than capable of drawing into the lineup at any night. And they'll all play in front of the venerable Jaroslav Halak, whose been known to patch up a defense or two with brilliant save after brilliant save.
I'm not predicting the Blues to make the playoffs; I'm guaranteeing it. Last year I had the Ducks drawing into the top-eight - they bought into my propaganda and played accordingly. The Blues wouldn't dare soil my reputation, or at least I don't think they would.
Todd Cordell: Jonas Hiller wins the Vezina Trophy
My bold and 'crazy' prediction for the 2011-12 is that Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller will win Vezina.
Though he is not a household name yet, he is an elite goaltender and he proved that last season before going down with Vertigo symptoms.
In the 49 games Hiller played last season, he finished with a record of 26-16-3 while posting a 2.56GAA and a .924SV%. Hiller also posted 5 shutouts, which is quite remarkable as when he went down with Vertigo he was leading the league in shots against.
He was also the only goaltender to represent the Western Conference in the All-Star game, which says something. He was also my pick for Vezina in my mid-season awards piece last season.
Still don't believe he is elite? Well, in his three seasons in the NHL, the worst save percentage he put up in a season was .918. Those are pretty good numbers if you ask me.
With Hiller back to 100% and ready to go, I think he is capable of winning the Vezina in 2011-12. Am I nuts to think that? I don't think so, but only time will tell.
Ty Anderson: The Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs
While some Toronto fans try to mask it with their unwavering optimism, the truth is that the post-lockout Maple Leafs have flat out stunk up the joint. Just one of two teams without a playoff appearance in the 'new' NHL (the Florida Panthers being the other), there's been little to cheer about in regards to an Original Six franchise that's finished at the bottom of the Northeast Division barrel for three out of the last four seasons.
But that’ll change when the revamped and developed Leafs take to the ice in 2011-12.
Despite finishing the year eight points out of the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, the Leafs made subtle yet huge strides in their development as a competitive team in the conference, finishing the year on an improbable 18-9-6 run. Seizing 42 of a possible 66 points over this run -- a 63.6 point-percentage -- the heart of a budding core was on full display amidst nearly impossible odds. The Leafs, for all their shortcomings and struggles that were on display for the vulture-like critics after a surprising 4-0 start to the year simply didn‘t last, were a team that would show up to the rink every night and simply work their ass off. A characteristic instilled in the aforementioned core that was by all means left untouched over the off-season.
With Toronto’s top four leading scorers (Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel, Nik Kulemin, and Clarke MacArthur) all returning for another year in blue and white, the Leafs’ biggest addition came with the signing of playmaking center Tim Connolly. Seemingly set to (finally) give Phil Kessel someone who can pass him the puck, the Leafs continued to bolster their depth down the middle with a trade that landed Matt Lombardi in Toronto while additional acquisitions on the point in the form of the all-around-solid Cody Franson and power-play specialist John-Michael Liles solidified a very capable offensive squad.
However, all of these moves pale in comparison to the gravity of the masked man: James Reimer. The uncontested number one goaltender heading into the year, the 23-year-old Reimer looks to build off a strong 37-game cameo last season that saw the Manitoba-born sensation post a 20-15-5 record to go with a surprising .921 save-percentage. But what made Reimer stand out even more throughout Toronto’s run was the confidence his steady play seemed to bring for the Leafs‘ offense, which averaged 2.95 goals a game with Reimer in net, compared to a woeful 2.31 goals-for-a-game without Reimer in the cage.
And while the numbers seem to indicate ole’ lady luck finally bouncing (a little bit) towards Toronto, the biggest stat comes with bench-boss Ron Wilson. Despite scrutiny received throughout his three-year stint with the club, justified or not, the 619-win coach has never missed the playoffs four years in a row throughout his 18-year NHL coaching career.
To put it in layman’s terms, the Leafs have the building blocks to achieve success in the East. They have a capable offense that could potential go three lines deep in terms of offensive firepower, a capable (but young) net-minder, and most criminally underrated, a defense that seems fit to hang with just about anybody on a nightly basis. And ultimately, I’m convinced that we’ll see a different side of Toronto this past year. Sick of being the punch-line, the once proud Leafs will take over the role of the 2007-08 Boston Bruins and the 2009-10 Montreal Canadiens and play a major darkhorse when they clinch their first playoff berth since 2004.
Richard Cloutier: Edmonton Oilers reach second round
It would be easy for me to predict that the Oilers will make the playoffs. Obviously, as the Oilers writer, I am a homer. Aside from cheering on my favorite team, I also have a positive attitude about the addition of Ryan Smyth and others over the summer. While many continue to see the Oilers as a potential "league worst" team in 2012, a few of us truly believe they've made enough changes to challenge for a playoff spot.
Let me take you back in history. 1981, to be exact. The Oilers second season in the NHL. The Oilers Regular Season in 1980/81 was difficult. They finished 14th out of 21 teams. Aside from superstar Wayne Gretzky, the Oilers had a bunch of unknown kids. Sure, someday Mark Messier, Glen Anderson, Paul Coffey and Jari Kurri would go on to become legends, but in 1980/81, they were still, but NHL standards, children. Messier, Anderson, Coffey and Kurri wasn't much different than Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Paajarvi and Eberle are now.
The first time the brilliance of the kids became evident was during the 1981 - 1st round playoff battle between the Oilers and the 3rd ranked Montreal Canadiens. The Oilers swept the series, and the hockey world realized a dynasty was in the making.
Getting back to now, let's say the Oilers find their way into the playoffs. They have cap room, so if they're in the hunt, look for management to add some additional talent at the trade deadline. Say the right players are added and the core players are healthy. Edmonton squeaks into the playoffs, finishing in 7th or 8th, and they come up against one of Vancouver, San Jose or Detroit. All three teams can be beaten. It's not impossible. No one gave the 2006 Oilers team a chance in the playoffs that season, and they almost won a cup.
If the Oilers kids are as good as I think they are, give them a shot at the playoffs, I dare you. It will be 1981 all over again.
Aaron Musick: Matt Duchene scores 90+ points.
Call me a homer, call me an idiot; Duchene is primed for a breakout year. He was well on his way to an 80 point season last year until he had four points in February.
Duchene can pass and shoot with the best of them and his creativity is unmatched on the Avalanche team. With Hejduk on his right wing and Peter Mueller on his left (baring any more concussions, knock on wood) Duchene is primed for a breakout season.
In his rookies season, Duchene impressed with 55 points, 24 of them goals. Last season, even with a rough February, he managed 67. By that logic he should get 79 points this year but sometimes hockey is just plain illogical.
Duchene is now the number one center and everyone knows it. That kind of responsibility only inspires him and makes him greater. Duchene is the kind of player who loves responsibility and he will show it next year.
All the reasons above are why I think Duchene breaks out and gets 90 points.
Adam French: Joe Thornton scores over thirty goals
My bold prediction for this season is that Joe Thornton scores 30+ goals for the third time in his career and first since 2002(34)
Is it really bold to predict that an elite player will hit 34 goals? In this case, yes. Thornton is one of the best passers in the league and has carved his niche as a big strong playmaker. They thought he would gel with ex-50 goal All-Star Dany Heatley, but that match soon turned up false. With the addition of Martin Havlat - a speedy player with some decent scoring ability but more playmaking prowess - I can see Thornton shredding some of that pass first mentality he has always had and start scoring. I think Thornton with his slower speed and ability to control a game needs a speedy winger and Havlat fits that bill.
Brian Huddle: Ryan Getzlaf wins the scoring race
Getzlaf has been over a PPG pace every year for the past four seasons. He's one of the better talents in the league, who should have help from the back end this year. Since the departure of Neidermayer he has yet to have a guy who could really feed him the puck well. Fowler should finally give him that option, in a year where he should hopefully stay relatively healthy. His PPG pace has slowly been rising the past two years, and with a full healthy season and that continued rise, we could see Getzlaf in the 95+ point range.
Granted this sort of prediction requires a lot of things to go right, but that's what a BOLD prediction is, right?
Mark Spizziri: Minnesota Wild make the playoffs
Huh?
That is correct folks, the team that currently can be found at odds of 75-1 to win the Stanley Cup in Las Vegas will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Last year's edition of the Wild fell 11 points shy of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. As a result, Mike Yeo was promoted as head coach of the Wild from the Wild's AHL affiliate in Houston where in his only season as head coach, he led the Aeros to a Western Conference championship despite a revolving door of players shuttling back and forth to Minnesota.
Now perhaps a dramatic turnaround like the one experienced by the Aeros is not in the cards for the Wild this season. Yet I would be surprised if the Wild style of play was not the same as the Aeros structured, physical, defensively responsible style.
Despite the loss of offensive minded defensemen Brent Burns, the Wild will receive a full season of Marek Zidilicky to quarterback the power-play. Meanwhile, solid defensive play should come from Nick Schulz, Greg Zanon and newly signed Mike Lundin from Tampa Bay. Emerging young blueliners Marco Scandella, Clayton Stoner and Jared Spurgeon round out a solid group of defenseman that along with solid goaltending from veteran Nicklas Backstrom, will keep the Wild amongst the top half of the league in terms of goals against.
Where Minnesota's biggest upgrade will be noticed is with the addition of two proven goalscorers in Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi. Expected to play alongside talented centre Mikko Koivu, will provide the Wild with a talented first line that should put up plenty of points. Look for Heatley to rebound given the change of scenery after his poorest pro season to date.
Beyond that, the second line of Matt Cullen, Guillaume Latendresse and Pierre-Marc Bouchard should be able to mesh nicely on the second line. In particular, the Wild should benefit from having Latendresse and Bouchard play a full season together after both missing substantial time last season due to injuries.
The third line for Minnesota should provide opponents with fits. Newly acquired Darroll Powe, along with Kyle Brodziak and Cal Clutterbuck should propser in this role of aggressive forecheckers, making life difficult for the opposition's blueliners.
Yeo's specialty while working as an assistant coach with the Pittsburgh Penguins under Michel Therrien and Dan Bylsma involved the special teams facet of the game. Minnesota ranked 13th on the power-play last season and should improve upon that despite the loss of Burns and Martin Havlat given the return of Zidilicky on a full-time basis along with the additions of Heatley and Setoguchi. The penalty killing unit also was in the middle of the pack and it would not surprise to see the Wild's ranking improve from 14th overall under Yeo's direction.
The Wild also will benefit from playing in what is likely the weakest division in all of hockey currently. Aside from Vancouver, second spot should truly be up for grabs in this division. Calgary has struggled the past couple seasons and may finally move team leader Jarome Iginla. Both Colorado and Edmonton have exciting futures ahead, but still are in rebuilding modes.
When you breakdown the Western Conference, the likelihood is that the top four teams will be Vancouver, San Jose, Detroit, Los Angeles. However, given the increased goal-scoring to come from Heatley, Setoguchi along with a healthy Latendresse and Bouchard, and the new regime led by the 37 year-old Yeo bringing an energetic coaching style to the fold I will not be surprised WHEN the Wild grab a playoff spot amongst a chase alongside Anaheim, St. Louis, Nashville and Columbus.
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Thanks for reading!
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