Going into the summer, I think the range for the possible bottom and possible top for the 2011-12 Carolina Hurricanes is as wide as it has been in any season recently and maybe since the team took to the ice in North Carolina. Hyperbole? I really don't think so. The potential talent level for this team at forward is incredibly high. There are some proven scoring veterans already signed and possible to return. There is Jeff Skinner who had a huge first year where he got to play as a relative unknown and non-focus for maybe 30-40 games but is now facing the challenging sophomore season where his ability surprises exactly no one. And there is even greater upside in emerging youth in guys like Zach Boychuk, Drayson Bowman and Zac Dalpe. But very much of this offensive upside is unproven. And you have Cam Ward who is sound and solid for apparently north of 70 games, but what sits behind him this year if he hits a health bump in the road and plays 20-30 games less? And the 2010-11 defense proved to be a weakness and remains a mish-mash of parts heading into 2011-12 with a big question to be answered in the top 4.

So the half-empty part of me says:

-No way can this team be as healthy in key respects this year. 70+ games from Ward with not even a minor hiccup and pretty much end-to-end healthy runs from veteran bangers in Cole and Ruutu.

-I don't doubt for a second that Skinner is for real, but matching or even falling a tiny bit short of last season would be a solid accomplishment.

-And there just won't be a ton of budget to make significant upgrades across the board.

-So when you take a #9 team who had a lot of things go right in 2010-11 and then drop in a couple health or other setbacks, problems filling out a top 4 defense, etc. and this suddenly looks like a #12 team.

But the half-full part of me says:

-There are bunches of options for more offense and speed. Not all of them need to pan out to fill some gaps.

-The core veterans and leadership are solid.

-The youth is only going to get better as they get more experience.

I think the end result for 2011-12 will have much to do with how well GM Jim Rutherford does this summer. And based on his track record and even with the budget limitations, that makes me lean toward half full.

His single biggest task this summer will be fixing a defense that was mediocre at best last year. Back are Tim Gleason, Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain, Bryan Allen and Derek Joslin (he is RFA but should not be a resigning issue). Jay Harrison would make a decent addition as depth at #5-7. But the big gaping hole is the slot currently filled by Joni Pitkanen. When you talk to Canes fans, the opinion on what to do with this varies widely. Many would not resign him even for a discount to his current contract. Others thinks the team will sink minus his skating ability, heavy minutes when necessary and high ceiling on the good days.

I sit somewhere in the middle. I would not bid at all costs to keep him, and in some ways I think a more defense-first replacement even if slightly lower in talent level could be a better fit for the team and McBain. But I also realize that Jim Rutherford has had minimal luck adding defense via free agency. He has almost exclusively used the trade wire to build a ho-hum defense that has outperformed what he paid to get it. So can he get a real replacement for Pitkanen or does he get outbid, fall to tier 2 options and leave the team hoping for too many things to work out for the defense to be even as good as last year?

Here are the options I see for Joni Pitkanen's slot:

1) Joni. Despite the up-and-down 2010-11 campaign, I would take him back at a similar salary to his previous contract for 3 reasons. First, even the bad version of Pitkanen is decent. Second, I love the potential level that he can (and did in 2009) reach. You make the playoffs by building decent, safe teams, but you win in the playoffs when players with modest averages but high upsides find chemistry and mojo and all hit stride in the same stretch. Especially with our $10-million-under-the-league-cap budget, you have to like the potential upside that Pitkanen brings and the fact that he brought it once already. Third, I think Bryan Allen could prove to be a mitigating factor if Pitkanen rides up and down a bit. Allen immediately made the penalty kill better with a big shot-blocking, physical body and ate up his share of the hard minutes. And he is experienced enough and good enough that he could slot into the top 4 for portions of the season if not permanently.

So I do offer him a contract similar to his previous one maybe with a small raise and hold to it.

2) Free agency. This has almost never worked for the Canes. The past 4-5 years have seen Rutherford enter the market with needs and very quickly watch the prices go real high, real fast such that he moved on to plan B. And big splashes in the past (anyone remember Sandis Ozolinsh or the problem when he signed Bob Boughner because of Danni Markov's contract issue?) did not work.

But depending on where prices go, there are a few options this summer.

--Eric Brewer. He is a veteran, pretty sound defense-first left shot who could fit nicely next to McBain or Corvo. He is coming off a $4.2M/year deal. But did he play his way into a bidding war with his playoff campaign in Tampa?

-Kevin Bieksa and Tomas Kaberle. They represent the biggest bidding wars that Rutherford will not win.

-After that, you start to get more question marks.

---Hal Gill-The big physical and nasty fits with our skilled right shots, and it gives you 3 similar/maybe interchangeable left shots, but is he too far down the other side of the hill at this point in his career.

---Jan Hejda. He looked real good a couple years back, but not so much since. Can the Canes afford the risk of a bit of a reclamation project for a guy that needs to fill Pitkanen's skates?

---Ed Jovanovski. Another guy possibly on the downside. Consistent injury issues. Seems risky.

--Christian Ehrhoff. In his prime. Decent balance of offense and defense. But coming off a $3.8M contract and a run to the finals, how much does he cost?

Of the free agent bunch, I like Eric Brewer at a price similar to Pitkanen's. I think Bieksa, Kaberle and even Ehrhoff probably all cost way too much and the others just have too many question marks.

3) The trade route. As I said above, Rutherford has built his defense for the past 10 years with ho-hum trades and additions. Corvo was a cast off. Pitkanen was a cast off. Guys like Aaron Ward (the 1st time), Mike Commodore, Bret Hedican and Sean Hill were all piece-part priced guys picked up in ho-hum trades.

So where might Rutherford shop in the trade market. I see 4 interesting possibilities:

---Los Angeles. Doughty and Johnson appear to be young linchpins. That leaves Greene, Scuderi and Mitchell all priced somewhat reasonably but maybe LA would rather cut 1 of these big salaries from their 3rd pairing slot and spend the money elsewhere. Scuderi and Mitchell are both decent veterans and known commodities.

--Anaheim. They have 2 good young players in Fowler and Sbisa to go with 4 veterans on bigger contracts in Sutton, Visnovsky, Beauchemin and Lydman. Might someone like Lydman or Sutton be available for a decent trade package? Neither is a pure version of a top 4, but either could be in the neighborhood.

--Philadelphia. The Flyers are pushing against the salary cap and looking to spend money in goal after the horrific 3-man fire drill rotation in this year's playoffs. On defense, Timonen and Pronger make a bunch. Meszaros, Carle and Coburn slot in the $3-4Mish range below them. That price is fine for 2 of them, but cutting costs for the #5 guy might be where the goalie money needs to come from. In addition, both Coburn and Carle are unrestricted free agents next summer making it difficult for the Flyers to retain both of them long-term. Could the Canes pry loose either Coburn or Carle for a package deal that includes a cheap 3rd pairing replacement (Joslin?) a good young forward who has upside but is also capable of stepping into the top 9 for cheap (Bowman, Boychuk) and a decent draft pick. And if so, would (and could) Rutherford get the next contract in place as part of the deal such that the player becomes more than a 1-year replacement leaving the Canes with 4 expiring blue line contracts next summer? I really like Coburn, but you would have to guess that he is priority 1 and that Meszaros or Carle are the more likely to be traded.

--Minnesota. Cam Barker has been labeled as a solid top 4. He even reached that level in Chicago. But he has sinced had an up and down time of it in Minnesota. Is it possible that Minnesota is ready to move on and get some assets for him while he still has value? To the positive, he is just 25 with a decent amount of experience and could just be hitting his prime and get the "less scrutiny in Raleigh" boost that has helped others. But he is not going to come cheap and does have questions.

I realize that all of the trade options are complicated because you have to give up some quality stuff to get players of this caliber. But Rutherford might be more capable of paying in young players traded than cash contracts.

What say you Canes fans? Can Rutherford pull off another ho-hum trade that blossoms into more? Is Pitkanen the safest though not perfect alternative? Or could he venture more aggressively into the summer bidding wars for this summers free agents?

Go Canes!

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