The forward depth:

--Chad Larose: He gets offered his choice of 1, 2 or 3 years at $1-1.2M/year. His grit and experience are valuable. At this price, if things don't go well, he is overpriced but not a budget buster as a 4th-liner. It will be interesting to see if someone else is willing to pay $2Mish for his playoff experience, grit and energy. I like Chad Larose and appreciate everything he has done for this team, but he looks like a victim of cheap youth right now.

--Patrick Dwyer: He gets offered his choice of 1 or 2 years at about $600-700k if he wants a 1-way contract and maybe a bit more if he is willing to a 2-way contract that gives the team more flexibility. He proved a competent checking line forward and even showed flashes of offense the 1st half of the year before it faded. Like Larose, if you can sign him for a 4th-line kind of price, the downside risk is small. I also think you need to get 1 of these 2 guys back or otherwise sign a comparable replacement to play PK - it is not a good situation to thrust a young offensive-minded forward into.

--Troy Bodie: He gets offered 1 year at $500-600k. For the regular season and with a bunch of undersized young players kids who other teams try to knock off their game with intimidation and antics (reference some of the troubles Skinner had this year) it is useful to have someone like Bodie around even if he only dresses for 40-50 games.

--Jiri Tlusty: I offer him 1-year deal similar to last year at $500-700k. Many will be ready to punt on him. He still has not developed into the scorer he was drafted to be. But along the way, he has, maybe surprisingly, developed into a pretty sound 2-way hockey player. He was a regular on Sutter's checking line which was pretty good playing against the other team's best most nights. As a combination of flexible use (not just a wing and a prayer for offense) as a 2-way player, the offensive upside and the price, he is low-risk with possible reward for the right price.

The 3 key forwards:

--Erik Cole: Maybe the hardest to figure out. My hunch is that he wants to stay and would ideally like to work on closing out his career here. And after the phenomenal season he had last year, management will be open to the idea. But did he hit a ceiling health-wise and scoring-wise that takes a perfect storm to duplicate? Maybe. So his numbers last year scream $3.5-$4.5M/year. But the age, question marks, and other things suggest this is risky. If he really wants to stay, maybe you pay him in 2011-12 based on last year and then structure the 2 out years at a price that fits on a 3rd checking line. That would be something like $3.5M for 1 year followed by something like $2-2.5M for the other 2 years. My math says 3 years at $8M would be a good offer for the team. It will also be less than his market value if Cole wants to go that route. Regardless of how the actual payouts go, the way I think of it is $3.5M for next year followed by $2.5M and $2M for the following years. At $2.25M/year for the 2 out years, the contract is not a bank breaker if he falls into a lesser role on a defensive line. I think Rutherford is sometimes overzealous with the no-trade clauses, but in the case of Cole, I think it makes some sense to give him 1 thing he might really want (a chance to finish here) in exchange for a price that is probably a lot less than the open market will offer him.

--Jussi Jokinen: Out of all of the unrestricted free agents, Jokinen would be my first choice (at a reasonable price) if I could have only 1. He just brings so much. He is 1st-line capable in terms of skill set and also just flat out goal scoring which is needed. But he is also a decent enough 2-way player that he can slot on a checking line and even take PK time if needed. He also brings a consistent game across any of the 3 forward positions. A lot of players can play more than 1 slot, but they are clearly better at 1 and take a step back in the other(s). I don't think that is true for Jokinen.

Will someone bid to $3.5-4M/year for him? It is not out of the question. I think the Canes would do well to get him for 3 years at $8.5-9 totalM to lock down 1 proven scorer for their top 6 for a couple years. I might bid a little higher, but once it starts going north of $9.5M you are paying full price, and it becomes a tougher decision.

--Brandon Sutter: I offer him how ever many years he wants at about $1.8-2M/year. Rutherford has a history of overpaying for core guys that he wants to keep. I wrote a blog in this vain about Ward and Staal's salaries earlier this year. The upside is that it keeps a relationship positive and in theory you get paid back with loyalty later. And I don't discount Sutter's value 1 bit. But this said, he is coming off a very light scoring year where he performed as a great 2-way center with limited offense. I threw out Stafford and Dubinsky as comparables (when they were signing their last contracts). Both were similar in age and production and also RFAs at the time and both signed for a little less than $2M/year. So I'm okay if Rutherford stretches to $2.2M/year and I think Sutter could well be a $3M+ player soon, but he just is not there yet. I hope Rutherford gets this and keeps as much $ as he can in his pocket without turning the negotiation negative.

The wild card at forward:

--Cory Stillman: I offer him 1 or 2 years at a significantly reduced rate - 1 year at $2Mish or 2 years at $3.5M. I realize that this is a lowball offer, but I slot Stillman below Jokinen, Cole and Pitkanen in terms of priority, and this prioritization just doesn't leave a bunch of money. This said, I think Stillman could be a very interesting keep. We are going to rotate in skilled scoring kids in Bowman, Boychuk (and to some degree Skinner who is more established but also facing that hard 2nd season where everyone knows who he is and what he does). These projects often have sparks but also some slumps and struggles along the way. Could you find a better guy than Stillman to help generate scoring chances for linemates and teach them where/how to find them? And for that matter, with Francis headed back upstairs, might it make sense to make him an unnamed power play coach despite the fact that he is not actually a coach? On the one hand, his age and mobility don't seem to fit with the general direction of the team. But reference what he did creating breakaways for Erik Cole last year. He does not need to be able to win foot races to be a productive setup man.

Passing on all of the veterans (Cole, Larose, Jokinen, Stillman) at forward puts the team much more in a pure rebuilding mode again and sets the clock back to last September where the team was trying to gradually build a winner. I think the team has to get a couple of these guys or comparable veteran replacements and plan to compete for the playoffs out of the gate rather than seeing how things go in October and going from there.

Even if the Canes somehow managed to sign all of the forwards listed it still leaves 1 slot in the top 9 for Bowman or Boychuk and possibly room for the other or another forward on the 4th line.

Defensive depth:

--Jay Harrison: He gets offered a small raise because he earned it. Even if he falls to #7, he fits the budget at about $600-700k especially with minimal NHL experience down in the AHL at this point.

--Derek Joslin: In his short but solid stint in Raleigh, he probably earned a small raise and probably even a 1-way deal. He prices out similar to Jay Harrison at something like $600k-$1M. Rutherford would do well to get a 2-way deal, but that probably won't happen.

--Joni Pitkanen: Again, this situation is the reason Jim Rutherford gets paid the big bucks. The defense which was the ultimate weakness last year gets immediately worse minus Pitkanen. So do you keep Pitkanen or try to replace him with similar or better? Even with the up and down of Pitkanen, I just don't think you will find a guy whose ceiling is nearly as high for anything close to the price where this negotiation starts. I offer him 2-3 years at about $4M/year and consider stretching a little if I troll the GM meeting for possible trades and find nothing interesting. Signing a top-end defenseman via free agency is a tough route to go with a limited budget and minimal ability to get by if it does not work out.

My prioritization would be like this:
--Jokinen first at forward.
--Need to either sign or replace Pitkanen to otherwise you enter next year with too many questions and too little options on defense. I like a trade for a safe, sound, steady buy to pair with McBain if Pitkanen cannot be resigned.
--Cole 2nd at forward.
--Offer to Larose on the strict budget noted above but if that will not work at the right price just bid a little higher on Dwyer rather than way overspending on Larose.
--Bid reasonably low and stick to it on Bodie and Tlusty.
--Consider Stillman if he will take a big discount and if there is money left from missing on 1-2 others.

So did I say to resign everyone? Sort of. But very many are price dependent and require significant price discounts which makes the probability of actually getting all of these guys unlikely.

I would be happy to get Cole, Jokinen, Dwyer and Tlusty and leave room for at least 2 forwards from Charlotte and then pluck a $3Mish type defenseman who is maybe not as good as Pitkanen's upside but more sound/solid/consistent via the trade wire.

How many of these guys can the Canes keep? How many do they want to keep versus letting go to make room for the kids?

Go Canes!

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