In the age of the salary cap, it has become vitally important for contending teams to have a couple bargain players who perform at a much higher level than their cap hit would indicate the player is worth. Ever since the Flyers acquired Ville Leino from Detroit -- or, more accurate, ever since he was finally able to get into Peter Laviolette's lineup as a regular -- he has been one of those great bargains.
Those days have come to an end. Leino will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Even if the Flyers are able to resign him and he performs at a high level, he will merely be earning his hefty salary rather than exceeding it.
Leino earned $800,000 last season. It has been reported that the Flyers' ballpark offer for the Finnish winger is somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.8 million. Through his agent, Bill Zito, Leino is reportedly seeking somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 million. In and of itself, this is a gap that can be bridged, even considering the Flyers' need to free significant cap space to get a goaltender.
Keep in mind that the salary cap is expected to rise next season by about $3 million. Regardless of what happens with Leino, at least one big salary (Kris Versteeg?) will have to be cleared out to obtain a high-end goaltender. An additional $1.5 million toward becoming cap compliant next season is likely to be obtained when Michael Leighton is eligible to be waived.
With Nikolay Zherdev ($2 million) unlikely to be resigned after July 1, the Flyers would already have enough cap space for next season to go to $2.8 million for Leino. It is not a big jump from there to be able to come up with a deal that would be agreeable to both the Leino side and the Flyers.
However, there is still number juggling to do elsewhere. Claude Giroux's salary jumps from $821,666 last season to $3.75 million in the first year of his new contract. Likewise, Jeff Carter goes up slightly from $5 million to $5.25 million in his new long term contract. If the club cuts loose restricted free agent Dan Carcillo ($1.075 million), once again waives Matt Walker ($1.7 million), and Ian Laperriere ($1.17 million) is allowed to be placed on LTIR rather than retiring, the club would be cap compliant, albeit with no wiggle room.
The club is likely to retain Andreas Nodl and Darroll Powe with modest raises on their cap-friendly salaries. Jody Shelley ($1.1 million per season through 2012-13) is a waiver wire candidate because of his salary relative to his ice time.
When Paul Holmgren says he's going to do something -- and all indications are that the team wants Leino back and will make it a priority -- he usually gets it done. The club has said that it would find a way to fit Leino's raise under the cap if a deal can get done.
The big question, however, is whether re-signing Leino is the best way the Flyers can use the money it will take to give him a raise that will more than triple his salary. It is also not a slam dunk that Leino himself would prefer in Philadelphia without at least testing the market in July.
From a Flyers' standpoint, I can think of at least two big advantages and two equally big potential drawbacks to retaining Leino at a hefty raise.
On the positive side, we have seen that he has tremendous chemistry with Danny Briere. In many ways, whenever Briere's line with Leino and Scott Hartnell took over a game, it was Leino who was the catalyst with his ability to create scoring chances and Briere's finishing ability. Hartnell does the dirty work. But when Leino is not at his best, the effectiveness of the line at 5-on-5 play decreases tremendously.
Also on the positive side, Leino individually has shown an ability to come through in the clutch. Both in the playoffs last season and junctures of the Buffalo series this year -- as well as certain points of the regular season -- Leino delivered when the club needed someone to step up.
Now for the negatives. As good as he was in the playoffs last year and the first half of this season, Leino's play was very inconsistent in the second half of this season. The Flyers and Leino himself need to get to the bottom of why that happened.
Was it his hip? Leino doesn't need offseason surgery, but he was taking injections to lubricate the hip joint during the season. He was also falling down a lot on his skates and was much easier to take off the puck than he had been earlier in the season. He also took some maintenance days. It should be noted that Leino played at an extremely high level in the playoffs last year while needing hip surgery, so the hip in and of itself is not an excuse for a dropoff.
Was it Leino's relationship with Peter Laviolette? By his own admission, Leino was frustrated not to be able to get into the lineup when he first arrived in Philadelphia. He kept his mouth shut about it at the time, but later admitted that he and Laviolette did not get off on the right foot with one another. Leino's preferred style of play did not necessarily match up with the coach's.
Oddly enough, for a player who came to Philly with the reputation of being a subpar defensive player, Leino's outstanding backchecking work was one of the underrated keys of his line's success in the playoffs last year and the first half of this season. Sometime around midseason this year, however, Ville's defensive work tailed off a bit along with the consistency of his offensive production.
At times, Peter Laviolette slashed the player's ice time. Most notably, Leino was benched in the third period of a nationally televised game against the Rangers.
Was it for defensive reasons that Leino often played several fewer minutes per game later in the season? Perhaps, but if so, Laviolette was not necessarily consistent with which players saw reduced ice time for that reason and which ones didn't. Leino has more than proven himself capable of playing a solid two-way game when it counts the most. On the flip side, it is up to the player to do what the coach wants, not the other way around.
Was it fatigue or team play as a whole? Leino's frequent scratchings last year turned out to be a blessing in disguise in the playoffs. He was still fresh, while Flyers opponents were worn down, and I think that was one of the reasons why he was so effective in his east-west game. Early this season, he still had plenty of energy. But his energy level was pretty sporadic over the second half, and that was a common theme with a lot of players on the club. The team played a lot of hockey after the Olympics, had a shorter summer by at least a couple weeks (or more) than every club but Chicago, and that could serve to wear down a finesse-oriented player like Leino who gets hit a lot.
Moving forward, if Leino remains in Philadelphia, he is going to have to play the way he did in the first half of the 2010-11 season. His line racked up a huge plus rating at 5-on-5 from October to January in large part because he was up on his skates most every game, Briere was red hot offensively and Hartnell was playing well in his crash-and-bang role (albeit taking a lot of penalties, along with Briere). Individually and collectively, none were as good in the second half. Danny stepped up in a big way in the playoffs, as he usually does. Leino had some great moments and games with numerous good shifts (at least in the Buffalo series) but remained sporadic in his production.
The second drawback to potentially resigning Leino: The Flyers need to look beyond just this next season when planning their salary cap. Both Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle are unrestricted free agents after the 2011-12 season, and James van Riemsdyk will be a restricted free agent after completing the final year of his entry level contract (he's currently a $1.65 million cap hit).
Even in planning for 2011-12, I think it was evident this past season that the Flyers need a little more size and grit up front. They are pretty small through the middle, James van Riemsdyk is still learning to use his strength more consistently and Hartnell's play tends to be streaky in general. I think the club could still use a power forward with decent hands. Also, if Carcillo is not retained, that's a little more physical play that is lost.
If it were my decision to make, after getting my goaltender, I would focus on changing the mix slightly up front. In a non-cap world, it would be a no-brainer to retain Leino at the price range being discussed.
I really enjoy watching Ville play, and he's one of those players who enjoys pressure situations. You need creative players like Leino. However, within the boundaries of the cap -- and with little to no flexibility barring a trade of a core player -- I'm not sure if the best bang for the Flyers' buck is to resign him.
*****
Coming tomorrow: A look at James van Riemsdyk
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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