Beginning with tonight’s game at the Shark Tank, there are sixteen games left in the Predators’ regular season. Sixteen games that will decide if Nashville will have a chance to win a first round series… or make mid-April tee times. While there are many smaller reasons, you can point to a single thing that has truly been the main issue this season… the reason the Preds are in the position they are in… injuries.
The team has seen 265 man games lost to injury in their first 66 games of the year. Figure they lose at least 48 more games simply counting Matthew Lombardi, Steve Sullivan and Marcel Goc as out for the season and that puts the team well over 300 man games lost come season end… and that’s if no one else goes down. While the franchise record for man-games lost in a season appears secure (1998-99's 391 games) second place could be in play (1999-2000's 319.) The kids and the call ups have done well for the most part, but this season has been a test of the organizational depth of the Predators, a test that has been passed with flying colors so far, but it is a depth that may be showing signs of being exhausted.
Besides the three names listed above, the other Predators that missed time on IR (or held off it) include Martin Erat (13 games ), David Legwand (18 games), Cal O’Reilly (27 games and counting), Ryan Suter (11 games), Jordin Tootoo (24 games), Marek Svatos (13 games), Francis Bouillon (20 games and counting), Sergei Kosititsyn (2 games), Jamie Lundmark (5 games), Pekka Rinne (12 games), Thirteen total players, nine of them considered starters, five considered “top six” forwards.
Bad breaks to be sure and all teams go through some sort of injury bug, but you have to give this team credit for hanging in there. Which begs the question… how does this team fight through and make the playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons?
A couple of keys….
Scoring by committee – It sounds almost too simple, but the top two lines need to pick up the scoring pace. Martin Erat is on a roll and can use a few more of his team mates to join him. Time for Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson and David Legwand to make things happen and Sergei Kostitsyn to recapture his roll.
Blueline – The defense has been jumping up into the play a lot more recently with positive results, this will need to continue… and continue responsibly.
Stepping it up on home ice - Twelve of Nashville’s final sixteen are inside the friendly confines of Bridgestone Arena. The Predators are 15-7-7 at home so far this season. Maintaining that pace at home really won’t get it done.
The breakdown for the rest of the season and Nashville’s season record against each team…
3/08 – @San Jose – 2-0-1
3/10 – Minnesota – 2-1-0
3/12 – Colorado – 2-0-0
3/15 – Los Angeles – 1-2-0
3/17 – Boston – Only game this season, currently 2nd in the east
3/19 – Detroit – 3-1-0
3/20 - @ Buffalo – Only game this season, currently 8th in the east
3/22 – Edmonton – 1-1-1
3/24 – Anaheim – 2-1-0
3/26 – Dallas – 1-2-0
3/29 – Vancouver – 2-1-0
3/31 - @ Colorado – Last game vs. Av’s
4/02 – Detroit – Last game vs. Detroit
4/05 – Atlanta – 0-0-1
4/08 – Columbus – 3-2-0 – Last home game
4/09 - @ St. Louis - 2-2-1
The Predators have losing records against three of their final sixteen opponents, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Atlanta, they are at .500 against two, Edmonton and St. Louis. Except for the two teams they haven’t played yet, the team has winning records against the rest… that includes Detroit, Vancouver, and tonight’s opponent, the San Jose Sharks. Nashville also has three games remaining against the East, all three teams battling for playoff position.
The team hasn’t helped itself as it has floated through February and early March. I still believe that the cutoff point for the playoffs this season in the West will be 96 points. That will require the Predators to get at least 21 points in their final 16 games… that’s 6 more than what the Predators have earned in their past 16 games. Coach Barry Trotz has previously said that he looks at a stretch run in three game bites. A win tonight will capture four points in the last three games. That is the pace the team will need to achieve in the final stretch.
The time is now.
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The Predators and Sharks faceoff at the Shark Tank in a critical game for both teams. San Jose is looking to solidify it's hold on the Pacific Division lead and third in the conference. The Predators are looking to get back into the top eight, a win tonight will tie them with 8th place Los Angeles at 77 points. HP Pavilion has been a house of horrors for the Predators in the past, however, their last five games in the Shark Tank show a .500 record (2-2-1). Very few blowouts in the series between these two teams, 11 of the last 13 played between these two teams have been one goal games.
The keys I wrote above apply tonight... especially on Sergei Kostitsyn. Kostitsyn has had a good series against San Jose, he's got a 100% shooting percentage on the Sharks, two goals on two shots. Hart Trophy candidate Pekka Rinne has also been simply stellar against San Jose, sporting a .968 save percentage against the Sharks this season.
It's another late one, grab your favorite source of caffeine and get ready... puck drop is at 9:30 pm on Fox Sports Tennessee and 102.9 the Buzz.
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Random Notes
- Slightly OT, but only slightly… there is a very solid piece in today’s USA Today about induction of Alice Cooper into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (well deserved in my humble opinion) with a mention of his recent appearance at a Preds game where he played with huge Pred fan Vince Gill. Alice is in Nashville recording his new album and he raves about Vince’s rock chops…
- The standings update… The Predators remain 11th in the conference tied with 9th place Minnesota and 10th place Anaheim at 75 points, all three teams have played 66 games. Chicago is 4th at 80 points, Dallas is 5th and Calgary 6th with 79, Phoenix 7th with 78, and Los Angeles is 8th with 77.
- Tonight’s impact games – Vancouver at Phoenix, Colorado at Minnesota and Chicago at Florida. Pred nation should be rooting for Vancouver, Colorado and Florida.
- The Predator’s playoff chances are now down to 52.7% (according to SportsClubStats.com) as last night’s Dallas / LA game ended in the worst possible way for the Preds.
- The St. Louis Blues played spoiler last night, putting a dent in Columbus’ playoff chances. The Blue Jackets had three games in hand to make up some of the distance in the playoff race… they have squandered that chance and stand seven points back with only one of those games in hand remaining.
- A lot of folks are beginning to believe in the devil… err Devils. New Jersey has been on a simply amazing run, 20-2-2 since January 9th. The Devils odds at making the playoffs are still mighty slim, only 1.8% according to SportsClubStats.com. Considering that the Eastern playoff line could be 92 points, New Jersey needs to go 14-3-0 to make it. History may well repeat itself as it all could come down to their season finale against… wait for it Flyer fans… the New York Rangers. If that game comes down to a shootout, well… I don’t know if Ranger fans could handle it.
- Our buddy Bruce Boudreau is at it again. The Washington capitals head coach was quoted calling Steven Stamkos of the Lightning a diver prior to last night’s game… no word on whether he threw an “f-bomber” in for good measure.
- Today is the seventh anniversary of Todd Bertuzzi’s sucker punch on Steve Moore in a late season Canucks/Avalanche game. The attack on Moore has driven criminal charges, civil suits, claims and counter-claims. The only thing clearly known, of all the participants in this sordid affair, Bertuzzi, former Canuck (and current Dallas) head coach Marc Crawford and Moore himself… only Moore has been unable to continue his career.
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COMING UP ON THE NEXT SLAPSHOT RADIO…
Wednesday’s show will feature Jeff Marek from Hockey Night in Canada Radio giving his particularly fun take on the NHL, we’ll also talk with NY Times blogger Jeff Klein about his piece on Donald Brashear and fighting. Also, we will be breaking down Thursday’s game against Minnesota with Wild color analyst Mike Greenlay. That’s all tomorrow night on SlapShot Radio, 6pm on Sports Radio 560 WNSR.
Check out our past episodes at
the SlapShot Radio website.
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