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Ramblings of a Frustrated Wild Blogger and Phoenix Rising From the Ashes

November 18, 2009, 10:56 PM ET [16 Comments]
Brad Ratgen
Minnesota Wild Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
In an effort to try and figure out why the Wild are playing sub-par by most every fan’s standards, I turned to the stats sheet. Does it all boil down to goals for and goals against and a comparison of that stat? Perhaps.

The Wild so far this season have scored 49 goals (tied for 7th least goals for) and have 63 goals against (tied for 5th most), resulting in 7 wins, 11 losses and 2 overtime losses.

As goals for are concerned, only St. Louis and Nashville have scored less in the Western Conference, 41 and 43 goals respectively. In the Eastern Conference, Carolina (44), Toronto (47), Boston (47), and Buffalo (48) (surprising given the excellent record ranking them 3rd in the East) have also scored less. Florida has the same as Minnesota (49) with less games played thus far on the season (18 compared to the Wild’s 20). Only Buffalo has the same or similar amount of goals for yet still are in the playoff hunt in their conference, currently holding on to the number 3 spot in the East overall (in large part due to Miller’s exceptional goals against (37), the league’s fewest goals allowed so far this year.

As goals against are concerned, 4 teams in the West have more: Columbus (67), Los Angeles (67) and Anaheim (67). Surprisingly, both the Blue Jackets and the Kings are in playoff positions, due in large part to their ability to score despite allowing a lot of goals also. L.A. has 69 goals on the year while Columbus only has 58 goals (compared to the Wild’s meager 49 goals for). In the Eastern Conference, 4 teams have allowed more goals: New York Islanders (64), Toronto (71), Washington (64), and Carolina (75). Again, 2 teams in the East have allowed more goals than the Wild (the Islanders and the Capitals), yet remain in playoff position, 7th and 1st respectively due, again, to their ability to score more than the Wild. The Islanders have potted 60 goals on the year and Washington has netted 79 pucks thus far. The remainder of the Eastern teams that have allowed more goals against are not in playoff position currently. Florida, once again, has the exact same number of goals against as the Wild, but with 2 fewer games having been played.

Keys to Wild success: score more goals and give up fewer goals. Especially in light of the fact that Lemaire no longer has the keys to this franchise. In the past, the Wild could afford to not score many goals as they were also letting in fewer goals by virtue of their defensive style of play. Now, with Richards at the helm, it seems that they have abandoned a lot of the defensive style of play that made past Wild teams successful and they are not scoring as much, or so it seems.

However, be forewarned. Simply by improving this stat, the Wild are by no means guaranteed a seat at the dance at the end of the year ie the playoffs. Ottawa, Montreal, Atlanta, Vancouver and Phoenix are better than the Wild in both categories, but all of these teams are still on the outside looking in. The big difference, however, is that each of these teams are within striking distance NOW. 12th place Montreal is only 2 points out of the current top 8 teams in the East. Atlanta and Ottawa are 1 point out. Meanwhile, in the West, both Phoenix and Vancouver are tied with 8th place Dallas with 22 points. The Wild: 6 points out. Not a ton, but as the wins and losses inevitably pile up for them and the rest of the 14 other teams in the West, the Wild will have to put together winning streaks to try and offset the losing that happened in October.

Regarding the Wild’s latest road trip, while it was certainly better than their road trip in October, it was still disappointing as they lost out on an extra point in Tampa by failing to play a full 60 minutes of quality hockey in a game that they dominated all but the last 5 minutes. Equally disappointing was the early hole they dug for themselves against Carolina, but thankfully staged a comeback of epic proportions on the backs guys who normally don’t make the headlines for this team, John Scott and Robbie Earl. But hey, a silver lining is a silver lining. Speaking of silver lining’s, what about Harding’s stellar play against one of the best teams in the East in the Washington Capitals. As most of you who regularly visit this blog know, I have been extremely hard on Harding (no pun intended). Likewise, when he deserves credit, he will get it here.

Regarding tonight’s opponent, the Dave Tippett-led Yotes are playin significantly better hockey than they had in year’s past under the Great One. So far on the year, the Coyotes are 11-9-0 coming into tonight with a 6-5-0 home record and a 5-4-0 road record. Compare to the Wild’s record of 7-11-2, overall, with a 5-2-0 at home and 2-9-2 on the road. The Coyotes have beaten the likes of L.A., Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Boston, Detroit, Columbus, St. Louis, Anaheim, Chicago and Dallas, while having lost to Buffalo, Columbus, L.A. (twice), New York Rangers, Colorado, Anaheim and Montreal. The Coyotes got out of the gate quickly in October going 9-4-0, but seem to be stumbling a bit in November at 2-5-0 going loss, loss, win, loss, loss, win, and loss. If you’re like me, you see their pattern and they are due for another loss before they win again (hopefully). However, the Wild are usually the cure for whatever is ailing a struggling team. The stats comparison certainly seems to favor the Coyotes on the year. The same cannot be said for the Wild as there is no discernable pattern to their record, perhaps a good metaphor for this team so far this year (a team lacking in any kind of consistency, good, bad or otherwise).

Overall, the Coyotes are a better team, statistically speaking, than the Wild and not just in the wins, losses and points columns. As noted above, they both score more and allow fewer goals (advantage Phoenix x 2); they are 15th in the NHL on the road while the Wild are 21st in the NHL at home (advantage Phoenix); they are 8th in the West on the road while the Wild are 11th in the West at home (advantage Phoenix); they are 14th in the NHL on the power play and 8th in the league on the road while the Wild are 17th overall and 14th in the league at home (advantage Phoenix); they are 17th in the NHL on the penalty kill while the Wild are 12th overall, but they are 9th in the league on the road while the Wild are 27th at home (draw); even their goaltending is better (Bryzgalov has a 10-6-0 record, not to mention 3 shutouts, with a 2.04 goals against average and a .921 save percentage, compared to Backstrom who has a 7-8-2 record, zero shutouts, a 2.67 goals against average and a .908 save percentage).

Recently, a Wild fan commented to me that he thought Backstrom was not playing up to par this year. That comment really got me thinking. Backstrom has been the back bone of any success this team has had this year. Has he, likewise, been a factor of any significance in defeat on the year. I would tend to say no, but would encourage comment from other Wild fans and anyone who follows the Wild at least semi-regularly, but aren’t necessarily a fan. My take on the whole deal is that while Backs is a good, solid goalie, he definitely benefited from the Lemaire system and may well have had inflated statistics in the Wild goal thus far in his career. With less emphasis on defensive hockey, I am sure we will learn more as this season goes.

Bruce Brothers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press had a very interesting article on Brent Burns and his horrible +/- rating where Burnsie was the league’s worst in this stat prior to Sunday’s game in Carolina. Burns referred to it as a weird stat and pointed out that he only had 1 assist in his +4 game against the ‘Canes and commented that he didn’t do much as the other 3 goals that he was on the ice for were concerned. While I agree in part with him when you look at a +/- rating on a single game basis, I definitely disagree with him when you look at that stat overall. While it is true he didn’t do much in those other 3 goals in Carolina, it is also true that his play, overall this year, can also be summarized as “not having done much” on the year. Of all players, you would think that Burns could handle both offensive and defensive responsibilities as he has played both sides of the puck in the NHL. I think it’s a matter of Burnsie putting too much pressure on himself to make the Canadian National Team for the Olympics and that when he is finally cut from Team Canada that, perhaps, his play will improve.

Keys to beating the Coyotes: scoring first and taking the lead into the first intermission. The Wild are 5-3-1 when they score first. The Coyotes are 8-2-0 when scoring first. The Wild are 4-2-1 when leading after 1 period. The Coyotes are 5-1-0. Likewise, the Wild are 0-6-1 when trailing after the first period, while the Coyotes are 1-5-0 when trailing after the first period. Just as I wrote that, Danny Irmen had a glorious opportunity, all alone in on Bryz on a beauty of a feed from Sheppard, but he failed to convert. With that the Wild and the Coyotes skate off the ice after one period tied 0-0 and being soundly outshot by the ‘Yotes 15-5, but not before the refs make a horrible slashing call on Owen Nolan when a Coyote defenseman’s stick breaks. The ref assumed he was slashed, but the re-play clearly showed that the stick broke on the attempted pass with Nolan no where in sight, yet further evidence that these expensive, composite sticks are garbage. Nonetheless, the teams skate off tied and even that stat favors Phoenix who are 5-3-0 when tied after the 1st period, as compared to the Wild who are 3-3-0 when tied after 1 period this year. A good to great road period by the Coyotes. A tough start for the sparkless Wild.

Early in the 2nd period, Phoenix takes advantage of the B.S. penalty call on Nolan that carried over from the first period on a laser of a shot by Vrbata from the left point, through traffic and over Backstrom’s right shoulder on the short side of the goal. 1-0 Phoenix, no thanks to the refs. But, like I tell my kids, sometimes you just have to win despite the refs. You know the night is starting out wrong when you see Earl, Sheppard and Irmen on the same line. At one point, Sheppard (ever the veteran when your talking about those 3 guys) came to Robbie Earl’s defense when Upshall was getting up in Earl’s face. Shep comes in and knocks Upshall on his can. No kidding!!!!! Good one Shep! Before that sequence of events transpired, Burnsie coughs one up on the power play leading to a great short-handed attempt and just after that sequence, Burns chokes bringing the puck deep in the offensive zone by failing to shoot the puck despite the fans yelling in unison for him to “SHOOOOOOOOT”. Late in the 2nd period, Bryzgalov gets the benefit of 2 posts in a row to preserve his shutout. Later in the 2nd, Nolan hits another post. At the end of the 2nd period, the refs did their best to make up the call against the Wild at the end of the first period by calling a B.S. call against Scottie Upshall for simply checking Owen Nolan into the boards. Now, the Wild can’t argue that they didn’t get their opportunity. At the end of 2 periods of play, however, the Coyotes led the Wild. As this season’s stats are concerned, the Coyotes are 7-1-0 when leading after 2 periods and the Wild are 2-8-1 when trailing after 2 periods. Combined with how well Bryzgalov is playing this year and the fact that the Coyotes have outshot the Wild 22-15 in 2 periods of play, it doesn’t look good for the lackluster Wild. The only good news in that period was that the Coyotes scored on the power play so at least the Wild didn’t rack up more minus stats on the +/- rating.

Well, no power play goal on the carry over time from the B.S. penalty at the end of the 2nd period against the Coyotes, but the Wild did get on the board after Koivu won the face-off in the Coyotes’ zone and pulled it back to Hnidy on the left D. Hnidy passed it to Miettinen who side-stepped a sprawling defenseman and got off a weak shot which Bryzgalov saved but Brunette was camped out to Bryzgalov’s right on the left side of the goal and hit it home. The Coyotes then took a slashing penalty a while later and the momentum shift was apparent. Or was it. Just as I wrote that, Phoenix drove the Wild net hard for a couple of good short-handed opportunities. They must have heard the Wild were an easy mark when on the power play, having given up 5 shorties on the year so far (just awful). Sometimes I think teams purposefully take penalties this year against the Wild just to get scoring opportunities (kidding of course). And then with 11:11 left in the 3rd period, James Vanermeer jumps up on the rush and gets a quasi 2-on-1 and snipes a goal to the far, open side of the net in the upper corner over Backstrom’s glove. Minutes later, Schultz had a great opportunity right on top of Phoenix’s crease, crashing the net, but failed to pull the trigger (one of the problems of having previous stay-at-home defensemen jump up into the offensive play, deep in the offensive zone). Phoenix then almost sprang a player for a break away but for Hnidy’s getting a stick on the attempted pass. Nonetheless, Phoenix drove into the Wild zone after each side’s players re-grouped and had another glorious scoring opportunity on Backstrom. And then another good opportunity by Phoenix. That momentum shift. It happened, just not in the Wild’s favor (yet). Cue Van Halen’s “Right Now” music, followed by a rousing “Let’s Go Wild” chant and viola, the Wild score on a pass from behind the net to Anttie Miettinen with less than 5 minuts to play in the game. Assists to Brunette and Koivu. And then with 4:39 left in the game, still while they were announcing the Wild goal, the Coyotes strike back on a goal by Scottie Upshall, assisted by Yandle, a defenseman who was joining the rush. Really a simple play. A shot by the Yandle from center ice as he was entering the zone, a re-bound to Upshall and a blast past Backstrom. With less than 3 minutes, Miettinen missed a wide open net (Ugggghhhhhh!!!!!!!). With 1:22 left, the Wild pulled Backstrom for the extra attacker. Phoenix then took their time out during the pre-face-off playing of G&R’s “Welcome to the Jugle”. Cue “Stand Up and Shout” and the Wild fans were going nuts. The Wild had one last set of chances with under a minute, but could not get it st Bryzgalov who had the entire bottom half of the net covered.

With the exception of a pretty fun last 5 minutes, this was overall a very boring game. The Wild’s streak of consecutive victories over Phoenix ends at 7. Truth be told, the Coyotes looked like the Wild of the last few years and the Wild looked more like the Coyotes of the last few years. 2 teams going in 2 very different directions. I think it’s safe to say that the Phoenix appears to be rising from the ashes. Whether the Coyotes/Jets stay in Arizona is an all together different question. Good for the Phoenix fans with this year’s version of the Coyotes, an all together different version than in year’s past.

Another late game let down spells defeat for the Wild and let down for their fans yet again. Burns, Johnsson, Nolan, Havlat, Clutterbuck, Belanger and Earl are all -1 on the night while Schultz and Hnidy are +1 and Miettinen, Brunette and Koivu are all +2. I think it's fair to say that the +/- stat should be re-named as the "didn't do much tonight" stat whenever a Wild player is minus. Thanks for the idea Burnsie! Meanwhile, in the post-game presser, Coach Richards calls this game the Wild's "worst performance of the year". The theme from Richards was all about the slow start to this game. My question is what about the let downs at the end of games? Slow starts and end of game let downs equal sure defeat for the under-acheiving Wild club. What is going on here folks?

If you think the Coyotes were tough, watch out Wild fans. Here come the once lowly Islanders and John Tavarres. Welcome to expansion year, part deux. The only difference is we have much more talented playersand yet we are getting the same kind of results. Will anything be done or does the free pass for the new regime continue? Based on owner Craig Leipold's recent comments in the local papers, it appears he is giving this new regime a free pass all year long. That said, time to start getting familiar with some of the top draft picks as projected by Central Scouting Service. Perhaps we should take a cue from "Tank Nation" in Toronto and start cheering everytime the Wild lose. Maybe we can land a John Tavarres, Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin type phenom at this coming summer's draft.

Ugh!
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