About 10 years and 25 pounds ago, I spent a season as an assistant volleyball coach at the college in my hometown. On the first day of training camp, after some light stretching, the head coach told the 15 players in attendance he hoped they’d done some summer conditioning, because they were headed on a six-mile run. Now, this was a small community college, where players were more familiar with six packs of Molson than six-mile runs, so it wasn’t going to be pretty.
The coach realized his players were going to paint the community sidewalks with vomit, so my job was to ride behind them on a bicycle, holding a large trash bag for them when they had to purge and shoveling up the mess if I didn’t reach them in time. The next two hours were more unbearable than anything I’ve experienced in my life, and I saw Speed 2… twice. Honestly, I collected more vomit that day than a frat house toilet.
On a much brighter note, it seems Evgeni Nabokov is setting his own schedule these days. The veteran netminder has started 16 of the San Jose Sharks’ 17 games this season, and recently started back-to-back nights against the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings. Todd McLellan is a good coach, so it’s hard to believe he’s the one making the decision to put Nabokov on pace for 77 starts this season. After last season’s meltdown, he has to understand that his goaltender needs adequate rest. However, McLellan has shown a stubborn tendency to do the opposite of what people expect.
Usually teams start their backup goaltender when they’re playing back-to-back games, especially early in the season when there aren’t playoff spots on the line. David Pollak of the San Jose Mercury News mentioned the possibility two weeks ago, before the Sharks wrapped up their six-game road trip with back-to-back games against the Thrashers and Lightning. “And that is why you’re not an NHL coach,” McLellan responded, displaying more than a little arrogance, joking or not, especially considering the fact he did start Thomas Greiss against the Flyers.
But McLellan knows better, so we should assume he’s not the one deciding to run his goaltender into ground. That makes me wonder who gave Nabokov the green light to set his own schedule, and what gives Nabokov the right to decide when he starts or sits? Currently, Martin Brodeur is the only other NHL goaltender who decides his own playing schedule. Let’s compare the career resumes of Brodeur and Nabokov.
You’ll find that Brodeur comes out on top in every statistical category but Calder trophies. He’s cemented his legacy with consistency and clutch goaltending, giving him the right to set his own schedule. Has Nabokov earned that right? No. While he has performed well enough to put himself on the verge of the league’s elite goaltenders, he hasn’t carried his team to notable playoff success. Brodeur has done it despite playing over 70 games in a season multiple times.
For Nabokov, his breaking point is 60 games. When he plays more than 60 games, he performs worse in the playoffs than he did during the regular season. When he plays fewer than 60 games, he performs better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. The numbers confirm it every single year.
Now, these numbers are either a fascinating coincidence or statistical proof that Nabokov’s play declines in the playoffs when he plays more than 60 games in the regular season. If his breaking point is 60 games, it’s odd the Sharks are allowing him to work at a 77-game pace. He’ll probably play even more than that when you factor in games at the Olympics, because he is the early favorite to start for Russia in Vancouver. That could mean up to seven more games over the two-week Olympic break.
Earlier this season, McLellan mentioned that Nabokov would have to earn his starts and playing time would be dictated by performance. Nabokov has been great this season but Greiss has been better, although the sample size is extremely limited. Is Greiss a better goaltender? No. Does he deserve to get the majority of the starts? No. However, it makes sense for everybody to have him start more often than once every 17 games.
Perhaps Nabokov really has been given clearance to set his own schedule, or maybe the Sharks are simply showcasing him for a trade down the road. Remember, he is an unrestricted free agent this summer and could be very attractive on the open market. I’m sure the Sharks don’t want to see him walk away for nothing, so maybe they’re simply trying to appease him by letting him call his own number.
Whatever the case may be, we know what happens when Nabokov reaches his 60-game breaking point, and things will have to change in a major way for him to stay below that mark. If not, who's going to be responsible for the Sharks' demise. Nabokov? McLellan? Doug Wilson? I was the grunt 10 years ago, enduring two disgusting hours and six miles of vomit-splattered road. If Nabokov pukes all over himself again during the playoffs, who’s going to be there to hold the bag and shovel it off the curb?
***
Nabokov stole another point for the Sharks last night, bailing the team out on a night when they received a much better result than they deserved. I’ll have my three studs and duds tomorrow, along with a preview of the Sharks-Penguins game.
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