TORONTO (Nov. 2) – Exactly one month of the 2009-10 National Hockey League season has passed for the Maple Leafs and there’s already enough data to reasonably conclude that the franchise will extend its record absence from the Stanley Cup playoffs next spring. That shouldn’t come as a bulletin to any rational person that has watched the club stumble through its first 12 games, but common sense rarely prevails in our rose-colored city.

The standings, alone, provide sufficient evidence that the Leafs will be watching the Cup tournament once again – even though we’re barely into the second month of the season. Sitting dead-last in the Eastern Conference [and the NHL] with a 1-7-4 record for six [of 24 available] points, the Leafs are seven full points out of playoff territory… with seven teams blocking their path to eighth place. Carolina’s horrid first month is far more astonishing, given that the Hurricanes advanced to the Conference final last spring. At 2-8-3, and on a nine-game skid, Paul Maurice’s crew should logically be expected to pick up the pace, though we’ve recently seen a number of clubs fall flat after a surprise playoff run. And, Carolina’s best player – Eric Staal – will miss some time now with an undisclosed injury suffered against San Jose on Sunday.

So, perhaps the Leafs might be able to escape the Conference basement for the first time this week. Much of it will depend on their ability to augment industrious road performances of the past seven days on home ice, and that certainly cannot be considered a lock. For the past three seasons [and many others since 1967], the Leafs have been only average in their home arena, and mostly terrible in games of any significance. How many times have the Leafs of the post-lockout NHL returned from a decent road trip, only to perform with a complete absence of energy and purpose at the Air Canada Centre? Even in its good seasons of the past decade, the club has flattened out at home.

I can still recall the Leafs of Pat Quinn sweeping a four-game swing through Canadian cities in March, 2000. The team won consecutive visits to Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa by a combined score of 18-9 – the latter game remembered for the career-altering eye injury suffered by Toronto defenseman Bryan Berard on the follow-through of a shot by Ottawa’s Marian Hossa. Save for that horrendous moment, it was one of the best, and most exhilarating, road experiences the club had fashioned in a number of years. But, what happened once the boys came home? You guessed it: Consecutive losses to Chicago, Atlanta and the New York Islanders.

To put it in perspective, the Blackhawks – that season – finished 22 points behind the Leafs; the Islanders, 42 points and the Thrashers, 61 points! Still, it didn’t prevent a comedown at the ACC. The 1999-2000 Leafs withstood such blight because they were one of the best teams in the NHL [7th overall, with 100 points]. But, the post-lockout clubs of Quinn, Maurice and Ron Wilson have had no chance of overcoming routine ineptitude on home ice. And, until the trend is nullified, the playoffs will be nothing but a dream.

Compounding what we see in the standings today is a factor even more ominous for the Blue & White. Though the so-called “new” NHL can be rather forgiving with the deceptive three-point game, the Leafs have proven – beyond doubt – that average-to-mediocre teams cannot survive even one lengthy slump during the course of a season. What makes the current famine appear conquerable, in wishful minds, is that it’s happening at the start of the schedule. But, the post-lockout Leafs have shown the timing of a 10-to-15-game slide to be virtually irrelevant. Let’s review the season-altering droughts of the past three years:

2005-06: In what turned out to be Quinn’s last stand behind the Toronto bench, the Leafs were sailing along at an impressive 24-15-3 clip after the New Year. Then came a groin injury to defenseman Brian McCabe – having a career season – and the club went to pieces. The Leafs lost seven consecutive games and compiled a 1-8-2 mark between Jan. 10 and Feb. 3… extending the killer streak to 3-13-2 by Mar. 4, after the Turin Winter Olympics. Toronto missed the playoffs by a mere two points only because of the torrid first half. But, does any grounded individual actually expect the Leafs to embark on a 24-15-3 run this season?

2006-07: Many of you may not recall [or believe] that the Leafs in Paul Maurice’s first year also started like gangbusters, but it’s true. An 11-5-3 record out of the gate enabled the club to hang in until the final afternoon of the regular season, when the diabolical Wade Dubielewicz crushed its playoff hopes. Where the Leafs really lost their way, however, was during a 12-game stretch between Nov. 16 and Dec. 9 when the club careened through a 2-8-2 streak. Even a 7-1-0 revival from Jan. 16 to Feb. 6 – coinciding with Andrew Raycroft’s best performance in a Toronto jersey – couldn’t rescue the team. Again, do we really expect the current Leafs to have a pair of hot streaks that result in a combined 18-6-3 mark? Not likely.

2007-08: Welcome to the days of true playoff oblivion. No longer were the Leafs good enough to hover around the post-season hunt until the waning hours of the regular schedule. This club finished 12th in the Eastern Conference and missed the Cup tournament by a healthy nine points. The defining streak occurred smack in the middle of the campaign, and it cost general manager John Ferguson his job. The Leafs went 2-9-2 between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15, and Ferguson was replaced by Cliff Fletcher. Late in the season, “garbage time” became a staple of the hockey club – a 10-3-1 rise between Feb. 23 and Mar. 22 proving meaningless until draft day, when Fletcher had to trade up two spots to snag Luke Schenn.

2008-09: A pair of long slumps merely justified another 12th-place finish for this terrible team, which missed the playoffs by miles [12 points]. Wilson’s first year behind the bench belied his career reputation as a strong special teams coach. Of course, he didn’t have nearly the personnel as in his years with San Jose, but the Leafs were an embarrassment killing penalties, finishing last in the NHL. Along the way, they had two disastrous streaks: a 2-6-2 dead zone between Nov. 15 and Dec. 6, then a 3-10-2 confirmation from Dec. 23 to Jan. 27. Again, the club and its fans celebrated “garbage time” – a 10-5-0 subterfuge between Feb. 22 and Mar. 24, once the playoffs had become a pipe-dream, and almost exatctly at the same juncture as the previous year. A 5-2 “victory” over Ottawa in the season finale cost the Leafs two spots in the draft order.

The current season is following a similar path — the only difference being that the club’s killer streak is taking place from the first puck-drop. Technically, there is plenty of time for the Leafs to bounce back and leap-frog the seven Eastern opponents that today stand between them and the playoffs. Jonas Gustavsson’s poise and Phil Kessel’s natural scoring talents offer some genuine promise.

Realistically — owing to a dreadful first month, and supported by the above numbers — the club has already shot its bolt.

E-mail howardlberger@gmail.com

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