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Nicklas Backstrom: Career Profile & ’09-10 Season Preview

August 26, 2009, 7:27 PM ET [ Comments]
Steven Hindle
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Elite and Over-Looked, Backstrom is a Key Piece to the Caps Success


Preface


If you haven’t come to know and love the Washington Capitals premiere centermen Nicklas Backstrom, than I highly recommend you watch out for the dynamic 21 year old Swede this season. Backstrom is coming off of back to back career high seasons chalked full of impressive numbers and is only yet growing into, and becoming comfortable with, the North American style of play in the NHL.

Backstrom is certainly not as out-going as his left wing(not a cold war pun) counterpart, Alex Ovechkin, but is certainly not as mundane as many may think.

Who can’t like a guy who will only cut his hair in Sweden?

A great mentor and guide during Nick’s first two years has been fellow Swede Michael Nylander. Although Nylander has been in the dog-house in DC for the last year(+), that has not stopped the two from developing a strong relationship that has played into Backstrom’s development. Beyond the veterans who are on the team, Backstrom has become fast friends with the other elite youngsters on the Caps squad including Ovechkin, Semin, Laich and Green. All of whom together form the future corps of this Capitals team.

In attempting to decipher what Backstrom might bring to the table this upcoming season, I have evaluated his performance over the last two seasons. Young and learning, it’s still premature to say that Backstrom is an actual NHL veteran, but the All-Star to be has certainly gained a plethora of experience and wisdom over the last two years in DC.

Under-rated and over-looked, Backstrom won’t be lost in the mix this season. He has distinguished himself as one of the elite play-makers in the NHL and is only expected to further cement his reputation by improving his game this season.




Nicklas Backstrom


Drafted: Washington, 4th Overall, 2006
Age: 21
Nationality: Sweden – member of 2010 Swedish Olympic Team


Stats: | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM |


06-07: Brynas IF Gavle-Sweden
07-08: | 82 | 14 | 55 | 69 | 13 | 24 |
08-09: | 82 | 22 | 66 | 88 | 16 | 46 |



Player Assessment


Nicklas has quietly become one of the best centermen in the NHL.

Although many claim that Backstrom’s consistency and point-per-game pace can be attributed to his pairing with Alex Ovechkin, the young Swedish pivot has certainly proven that he can hold his own.

With 157 points in 164 regular season games and 21 points in 21 playoff games, the 21 year old is still in a learning stage of his young career, slowly discovering how to be a key performer in crucial situations.

The offensive skills cannot be denied, yet Nick is still learning in many departments.

Backstrom could certainly benefit from a few lessons in the faceoff circle from David Steckel as the young Swede finished 67th in faceoff % during the regular season(48.7%) and 29th out of 50 centermen(having taken a minimum of 50 draws)during the playoffs, winning a meagre 49.2% of his draws. (Steckel finished with 5th in the NHL with 57.9%.)

Backstrom increased his ice-time last season, in all categories, and that is not likely to change. Expect more shorthanded and powerplay time with the absence of Sergei Fedorov.

Undoubtedly, Nick is still a few years away from his prime. Taking that into account, expect Backstrom to continue his impressive play. He is a young man that has yet to fully mature into his own frame, but already has 2 NHL seasons under his belt. This can only bode well for Backstrom as he enters his 3rd season in the League.

With a PPG of .84 in his rookie campaign and an average of 1.07 last year, Backstrom has averaged 0.96 throughout his young NHL career.

Following that pattern, expect Backstrom to continue to improve his numbers.


Goal Scoring


Nick scored 14 goals in ‘07-08 and 22 in ‘08-09, an increase of 12% in his goal per game ratio.

Holding true to that increase, expect Backstrom to hit the back of the net even more this year. He is learning to shoot more and will likely benefit from Mike Knuble’s arrival on the top line. More shooters means more rebounds and opportunities. Although Nick isn’t known as a “grinder,” there is no doubt that he will cash in more often thanks to the presence of another shooter.

I expect Backstrom to pot somewhere between 27 and 30 goals this season.


Set-Up Man


In terms of his play-making abilities, Backstrom began his career with 55 assists in 82 games only to follow that up with an even more impressive 66 assists in 82 games.

With 121 assists in 162 games, Nick has averaged 0.73 assists per games thus far and has quickly become known as one of the slickest setup men in the game.

Heading into this season, Backstrom has seen an increase of 14% in assists per game from his rookie year through his sophomore campaign. Again, holding true to his averages, Backstrom will likely end up with even more assists this year thanks to the addition of Mike Knuble. Knuble certainly does not shy away from the rough play, nor does he hesitate to fire a puck on net(unlike the recently departed Viktor Kozlov). That alone will benefit Backstrom’s play making ability.

Although it could happen and is not out of the realm of possibilities, I do not expect Backstrom to leap to an assist per game pace. Yet, even if he manages to maintain his 2008-09 pace or better it slightly, Backstrom will be a lock for 65+ assists.

Clearly you can tell that I am a firm believer that having another weapon in Mike Knuble on the top line will benefit Backstrom. Kozlov was an excellent mentor and a viable commodity during his time with Ovechkin and Backstrom, but he definitely did not bring the aggressive style of play that Knuble will.

Backstrom has All-Star written all over him and considering he’s only beginning to fully acclimatize himself to the North American game, there should be little question as to why expectations should be even greater for one of the contenders for the Team Sweden Olympic squad in Vancouver.


Iron Man


Nick has not missed a game in the last 2 seasons, participating in all 164 regular season games.

It’s difficult to remain perfect in the rough and tumble NHL therefore I highly doubt that Nick will escape his 3rd NHL season without accruing a few bumps and bruises. He is certainly durable though and I expect, if anything, for Backstrom to miss a maximum of 2 or 3 games, if that.

With Knuble and Ovechkin circling the wings, Backstrom will be fairly well protected.


Plus or Minus?


Although often considered a token stat, +/- has been an excellent indicator of Backstrom’s effectiveness over the last 2 seasons. In most cases, +/- can be a very arbitrary stat, yet in Backstrom’s case it displays a compelling case that he is an excellent two-way player. Through 164 regular season games Backstrom is a +29.

Skating just 4 seconds shy of 20 minutes per contest, Backstrom averaged 4:41 on special teams(0:52 SH/3:51PP) and 15:15 at even strength.

Normally when +/- is taken into account line-mates are often looked upon as the cause(good or bad) for the result. Of course Ovechkin certainly brings an enormous amount of offense to the top line all on his own, yet he is not regarded as the defensively reliable one on the line. Neither was the “shy” Kozlov. That role fell to Backstrom and over the last 2 seasons Nick has improved steadily in his role as a two way weapon, especially in terms of defensive responsibility.

In terms of projecting a players +/-, your guess is as good as mine.

One thing that is certain is that Nicklas Backstrom brings a major advantage to the Capitals top line. His role is continuously increasing and he may see more ice-time against opponent’s in more difficult situations, so his +/- may fluctuate, but given the addition of Karl Alzner and Semyon Varlamov to bolster the Capitals roster, I feel this team will be all the more difficult to score on, thus, hopefully, helping all Capitals +/- count. Increased role aside, I expect Backstrom to better his +16 rating from last season.

In and around +20 will be an easy bet if Nicklas improves on his offensive totals as expected.


The Tough Guy


Ok, perhaps not so much.

Backstrom isn’t exactly a tough guy or someone who is known for stirring the pot, but following his increase from 24 minutes in the box in ’07-08 to 46 in ’08-09, it appears that Backstrom’s increased ice-time and on-ice role has also led him into more mandatory timeouts.

All of Backstrom’s penalties have come in the form of minor infractions and his average of slightly over 1 penalty every 4 games is certainly nothing to bother Caps bench boss Bruce Boudreau, yet with more pressure this season may come more minutes in the sin bin.

Nick won’t be dropping the gloves anytime soon, but with the addition of Mike Knuble to the top line, it’s to be expected that there will be more than a fair share of scrums in front of opponent’s goaltenders this season, something that will inevitably draw Backstrom into a few more minors.

Not taking into account a possible glove-dropping incident or the occasional misconduct, I expect Backstrom to crack 50 penalty minutes this season.


Player Summary


Backstrom is an elite weapon on the Capitals top scoring unit. He has grown and developed his two-way game over the last 2 seasons and has turned into a reliable and competent player in all 3 zones. Despite having the advantage of 2 full seasons under his belt before the age of 22, Backstrom still has a couple of areas to work on.

Offensively, not much more can be asked. Only that he continue his strong play in the opponent’s end.

Defensively Backstrom must continue to assert himself. Although he is no slouch in his own end, Nicklas must become more of a threat when it comes to stopping dangerous scoring threats from the opposition.

The two major areas that need improvement are in the face-off circle and short-handed play.

Strength plays a major role in the face-off department and that is one thing that Backstrom has assuredly been working on. Increased arm strength and practice are definitely needed for Nick to become more reliable on the draw, but as it was the one glaring negative on his resume from last season, I expect that the Capitals trainers instructed Backstrom to follow a regimen that would see him address just that.

As for playing when down a man, it simply has to do with confidence and experience. Familiarity will help ease Backstrom into becoming a better penalty killer. His role will increase as long as the coaching staff feel he is comfortable, which should be quite a bit this season as there is no reason for Nick to not feel comfortable with the team and his role.

To summarize all of the elements of Backstrom’s game, he is a near complete player that is still in the early stages of what will be a very impressive career.

With few minor areas in need of improvement, the only thing holding Nick back will be himself. Youth is on his side as he is still technically a few years shy of his ‘hockey prime’ and his line-mates will only bolster his potential. He is a key piece of what appears to be a Capitals team sitting on the precipice of a hopeful “dynasty” and will be relied upon to be a key contributor in order for those dreams to come true.

There are big expectations on Nick’s shoulders this year, but nothing he is not capable of handling or thriving under.

______________________________________________


Given my review of Backstrom’s major statistics, here is my projection for Nicklas for 2009-2010:


Stats: | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM |

09-10: | 80 | 28 | 70 | 98 | +18 | 54 |



I am certainly not a fantasy guru, but based on Backstrom’s ascent through the ranks of the NHL’s top scorers and the fact that he is so young, it’s not a far stretch to project Backstrom eclipsing his career highs this season.

The Caps are certainly counting on it.






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