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I don’t know what to make of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
When it comes to team management I love new perspectives but I hate recklessness.
I love aggression but I can’t stand impatience.
I love innovation but I respect tradition.
The way this team was built goes against many of my beliefs on how to build a successful organization, at least one that will be successful long-term.
It’s completely different from anything we’ve seen before.
I’ve shaken my head at some of their moves but for the most part I have to applaud the new Ownership/Management group for what they’ve done.
Because the truth is that they had very little to start with. The cupboard was essentially bare:
99: Sheldon Keefe, Evgeny Konstantinov, Brett Sheffelmaier, Jimmie Olvestad
00: Nikita Alexeev, Ruslan Zaynullin, Alexander Kharitonov
01: Alexandr Svitov, Alexander Polushin, Andreas Holmqvist, Evgeny Artyukhin
02: Adam Heinrich
03: Mike Egener, Matt Smaby, Jonathan Boutin
04: Andy Rogers, Mark Tobin
05: Vladimir Mihalik, Radek Smolenak, Chris Lawrence
Don’t recognize most of those names?
Those were all of the Tampa picks over the first three rounds of the Entry Draft, in the seven years following the Lecavalier/Richards draft.
This season the Lightning goaltending was right up there (or down there) with the worst in the league. Their D was aging and shallow. Up front they had four players with talent and a bunch of replaceable parts.
Lecavalier was a summer away from being able to hit the market and both Prospal and Boyle’s contracts were expiring. Brad Richards was severely under-utilized given his contract, because the Lightning didn’t have any wingers to play with him.
CORE PLAYERS:
Lecavalier – 1 more year
Richards – 3 more years
St. Louis – 3 more years
Prospal – pending UFA
Boyle – pending UFA
Ranger – 2 more years
Kuba – 1 more year
Cap Hit = $34,025,000 mil per year
Look at how much has changed:
The Lightning were the worst team in the league and it looked quite possible that things were going to get even worse. Then things changed thanks to:
* Eric Ersberg
* Jay Feaster & Brian Lawton
* Vincent Lecavalier
* Oren Koules & Len Barrie
1) Ersberg allowed two goals or less in six of his final nine starts and went 5-3-1, carrying the Kings to 29th place and handing Tampa the best chance at Stamkos. They got him.
2) Feaster started the overhaul by trading Richards and Holmqvist to Dallas for Jokinen, Halpern and Mike Smith. Then he traded Prospal to Philly for a second rounder and Picard, who was later sent to Ottawa. Lawton was able to add Meszaros, Carle, Wishart and Niskala to the Tampa blueline.
When all was said and done, the scorecard reads:
Richards, Boyle, Kuba, Holmqvist, Lukowich, Hlavac, 3rd Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 6th Rd Pick, 7th Rd Pick
for
Carle, Meszaros, Wishart, Smith, Jokinen, Halpern, Niskala, 2nd Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 7th Rd Pick
(Prospal was traded and reacquired, Picard and SJ 1st Rd Pk were acquired and then dealt).
Those moves were key in overhauling the roster and getting much younger. The average age of the six players Tampa dealt was just under 31, while the ones they acquired averaged 25 years of age.
3) Without a commitment to this market and the new ownership group by Vincent Lecavalier, none of this would have been possible. He IS the franchise. And like many I was surprised that he signed when he did without at least waiting to see how things worked under the new regime.
4) Tampa’s new owners took on about $220 million in new contract commitments while shedding just over $70 mil (mostly Richards and Boyle - a deal that they approved). That’s $220 mil spent in just seven months - including $66,395,000 in UFA signings and another $47,477,500 in new players acquired via trade (a couple are actually two-way deals):
The amount of changes are staggering. Only nine players who were on the team in early February are poised to crack the lineup – Lecavalier, St. Louis, Prospal, Gratton, Craig, Ouellete, Ranger, O’Brien and Lundin – and that’s barring any further moves.
So how can one evaluate a team or predict how it will do this year after so many changes?
They can’t.
I will say that I like what they’ve done in terms of trades and I’m a lot less excited about the UFA signings.
But given that the signings will replace such notable names as Denis, Janik, MacDonald, Karlsson, Darche, Roy, Stewart, Lessard and Wanvig, it’s hard to say anything too negative.
The way I see it the trades were made to start to really build on the core for the future and the signings were made to augment that core and provide leadership short-term.
It’s hard to find anything wrong with a team bringing in three young defenders under the age of 24 who will grow with the organization. As for the three big UFAs, I don’t like the contracts:
* Prospal has a strange tendency of playing his best hockey in a contract year. Two of his three best seasons came right before signing huge long-term contracts. Much more unusual is his inconsistent play from year-to-year. Every other year like clockwork, Prospal defaults back to being a 55-point player.
* Vrbata has exactly one 20-goal season to his name and prior to last season his career high was 41 points. He looked good last season but I think it was a great example of a good bad team player cashing in. Without the right linemates and enough PP time, I think he’ll disappoint but $3 mil per was a little less than I expected so either way this shouldn’t be a horrible deal.
* There’s a lot to like about Ryan Malone as a player but seven years? And $4.5 per? Way too much and too long in my opinion. I’m always more than a little weary of players who set career highs going into their UFA summer. Malone will be 29 in December and he’s scored 87 goals in his career. Handing him $31.5 mil guaranteed (barring a buyout) was more than a little too risky. I’ve heard the Leclair comparison a few times but by Malone’s age, Leclair had already posted three straight 50-goal seasons. Malone has yet to hit 30.
That said, both the present and the future are looking much, much, MUCH brighter today than they were when the calendar flipped to 2008. Just look the their core players and contracts:
With so many new faces in the line-up and the trip overseas, I would be surprised if Tampa doesn’t get off to a slow start. Inevitably they’ll probably contend for a playoff spot but I don’t think they’re close to being ready to contend. Remember that both Carle and Meszaros are talented but are coming off poor years – and both will be counted on to play significant minutes. The D is likely to be weak and their goaltending is still a huge question mark.
People like to use Philly as the new example of how fast things can turn around but the talent on that team and its assets weren’t compiled overnight. I don’t believe that there’s such thing as a quick fix – only band-aid solutions.
I still believe that to be successful long-term, Tampa will need to invest a great deal in scouting and development, start to stockpile picks and then build the organization the right way, starting with the foundation.
One thing is for sure and that is the Lightning will be entertaining to watch this year, on and off the ice.
And I’ll definitely be watching with great interest and doing my best not to pass judgment just yet.
Danny – dtolensky@hotmail.com
When it comes to team management I love new perspectives but I hate recklessness.
I love aggression but I can’t stand impatience.
I love innovation but I respect tradition.
The way this team was built goes against many of my beliefs on how to build a successful organization, at least one that will be successful long-term.
It’s completely different from anything we’ve seen before.
I’ve shaken my head at some of their moves but for the most part I have to applaud the new Ownership/Management group for what they’ve done.
Because the truth is that they had very little to start with. The cupboard was essentially bare:
99: Sheldon Keefe, Evgeny Konstantinov, Brett Sheffelmaier, Jimmie Olvestad
00: Nikita Alexeev, Ruslan Zaynullin, Alexander Kharitonov
01: Alexandr Svitov, Alexander Polushin, Andreas Holmqvist, Evgeny Artyukhin
02: Adam Heinrich
03: Mike Egener, Matt Smaby, Jonathan Boutin
04: Andy Rogers, Mark Tobin
05: Vladimir Mihalik, Radek Smolenak, Chris Lawrence
Don’t recognize most of those names?
Those were all of the Tampa picks over the first three rounds of the Entry Draft, in the seven years following the Lecavalier/Richards draft.
This season the Lightning goaltending was right up there (or down there) with the worst in the league. Their D was aging and shallow. Up front they had four players with talent and a bunch of replaceable parts.
Lecavalier was a summer away from being able to hit the market and both Prospal and Boyle’s contracts were expiring. Brad Richards was severely under-utilized given his contract, because the Lightning didn’t have any wingers to play with him.
CORE PLAYERS:
Lecavalier – 1 more year
Richards – 3 more years
St. Louis – 3 more years
Prospal – pending UFA
Boyle – pending UFA
Ranger – 2 more years
Kuba – 1 more year
Cap Hit = $34,025,000 mil per year
Look at how much has changed:
The Lightning were the worst team in the league and it looked quite possible that things were going to get even worse. Then things changed thanks to:
* Eric Ersberg
* Jay Feaster & Brian Lawton
* Vincent Lecavalier
* Oren Koules & Len Barrie
1) Ersberg allowed two goals or less in six of his final nine starts and went 5-3-1, carrying the Kings to 29th place and handing Tampa the best chance at Stamkos. They got him.
2) Feaster started the overhaul by trading Richards and Holmqvist to Dallas for Jokinen, Halpern and Mike Smith. Then he traded Prospal to Philly for a second rounder and Picard, who was later sent to Ottawa. Lawton was able to add Meszaros, Carle, Wishart and Niskala to the Tampa blueline.
When all was said and done, the scorecard reads:
Richards, Boyle, Kuba, Holmqvist, Lukowich, Hlavac, 3rd Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 6th Rd Pick, 7th Rd Pick
for
Carle, Meszaros, Wishart, Smith, Jokinen, Halpern, Niskala, 2nd Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 4th Rd Pick, 7th Rd Pick
(Prospal was traded and reacquired, Picard and SJ 1st Rd Pk were acquired and then dealt).
Those moves were key in overhauling the roster and getting much younger. The average age of the six players Tampa dealt was just under 31, while the ones they acquired averaged 25 years of age.
3) Without a commitment to this market and the new ownership group by Vincent Lecavalier, none of this would have been possible. He IS the franchise. And like many I was surprised that he signed when he did without at least waiting to see how things worked under the new regime.
4) Tampa’s new owners took on about $220 million in new contract commitments while shedding just over $70 mil (mostly Richards and Boyle - a deal that they approved). That’s $220 mil spent in just seven months - including $66,395,000 in UFA signings and another $47,477,500 in new players acquired via trade (a couple are actually two-way deals):
The amount of changes are staggering. Only nine players who were on the team in early February are poised to crack the lineup – Lecavalier, St. Louis, Prospal, Gratton, Craig, Ouellete, Ranger, O’Brien and Lundin – and that’s barring any further moves.
So how can one evaluate a team or predict how it will do this year after so many changes?
They can’t.
I will say that I like what they’ve done in terms of trades and I’m a lot less excited about the UFA signings.
But given that the signings will replace such notable names as Denis, Janik, MacDonald, Karlsson, Darche, Roy, Stewart, Lessard and Wanvig, it’s hard to say anything too negative.
The way I see it the trades were made to start to really build on the core for the future and the signings were made to augment that core and provide leadership short-term.
It’s hard to find anything wrong with a team bringing in three young defenders under the age of 24 who will grow with the organization. As for the three big UFAs, I don’t like the contracts:
* Prospal has a strange tendency of playing his best hockey in a contract year. Two of his three best seasons came right before signing huge long-term contracts. Much more unusual is his inconsistent play from year-to-year. Every other year like clockwork, Prospal defaults back to being a 55-point player.
* Vrbata has exactly one 20-goal season to his name and prior to last season his career high was 41 points. He looked good last season but I think it was a great example of a good bad team player cashing in. Without the right linemates and enough PP time, I think he’ll disappoint but $3 mil per was a little less than I expected so either way this shouldn’t be a horrible deal.
* There’s a lot to like about Ryan Malone as a player but seven years? And $4.5 per? Way too much and too long in my opinion. I’m always more than a little weary of players who set career highs going into their UFA summer. Malone will be 29 in December and he’s scored 87 goals in his career. Handing him $31.5 mil guaranteed (barring a buyout) was more than a little too risky. I’ve heard the Leclair comparison a few times but by Malone’s age, Leclair had already posted three straight 50-goal seasons. Malone has yet to hit 30.
That said, both the present and the future are looking much, much, MUCH brighter today than they were when the calendar flipped to 2008. Just look the their core players and contracts:
With so many new faces in the line-up and the trip overseas, I would be surprised if Tampa doesn’t get off to a slow start. Inevitably they’ll probably contend for a playoff spot but I don’t think they’re close to being ready to contend. Remember that both Carle and Meszaros are talented but are coming off poor years – and both will be counted on to play significant minutes. The D is likely to be weak and their goaltending is still a huge question mark.
People like to use Philly as the new example of how fast things can turn around but the talent on that team and its assets weren’t compiled overnight. I don’t believe that there’s such thing as a quick fix – only band-aid solutions.
I still believe that to be successful long-term, Tampa will need to invest a great deal in scouting and development, start to stockpile picks and then build the organization the right way, starting with the foundation.
One thing is for sure and that is the Lightning will be entertaining to watch this year, on and off the ice.
And I’ll definitely be watching with great interest and doing my best not to pass judgment just yet.
Danny – dtolensky@hotmail.com
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