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Will Ellis Fare Better Than Mason In His 1st Season as #1?

August 25, 2008, 1:36 AM ET [ Comments]

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Before we get into the topic for which you have clicked on this blog I must say some thanks and give some info out.

This past year has been very exciting, long, but rewarding. I really tried to attack the blogging thing from an interesting angle and I think I’ve succeeded. All along I’ve wanted to be in the middle column along with Paul McCann. After putting in a successful first year Eklund has decided to do just that. I want to thank Ek for making that happen. Also, Paul McCann has been a great guy to work with and I look forward to doing so another year. Hopefully we’ll be able to get some work in together off the website as well… ;) Also, I really do have to thank my girlfriend of 4+ years, Jennifer, who has supported me the whole way and put up with me spending a lot of nights at the rink and not with her. There are plenty more nights to come but I’m blessed that she understands and is happy for me.

This is my first blog in the middle column (which is considered a promotion here at Hockeybuzz) and this may be the first time some of you are reading my work. I invite you to dig into the archives (especially my very first post) to get a better understanding of who I am and what I do. In brief, I cover the Preds games from a reporting stance. I do have a media pass and that helps me in many ways to give you the best Pred coverage possible. My main focus is post-game reports. I go to every home game (unless prevented by outside forces i.e. flu or car troubles on the way to the arena) and if you look at any previous post-game report you will see the format.

I don’t know quite how to describe my writing style (maybe some of the faithful followers of Felder (ffF) can do that for you) other than to say that my goal in life is to become an NHL play-by-play broadcaster so at times I think my writing comes across as if I was calling the action. There is a structure and format that I keep for every game so that will become quite familiar and most people like it I’ve found. One of the things you will find is that for the most part I’m pretty fair about what I see. If the visiting team gets robbed I have no problem saying so. I appreciate a great play from whomever and try to give every team their due. Like I stated previously, the best way to see this is go back and look in my archives. If your favorite team played the Preds last year go ahead and try to find that game or games and get a feel for the format. It’s summer so you have some time because I know you are just like me and dying for anything hockey.

Well enough of the introductions. I realize this blog is going to be a tad bit long but it should be worth it and I wanted to make sure my first middle page blog was strong. I hope you continue to follow along as I try and deliver another year of Predator columns from my viewpoint.

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When you think of the Preds goaltending situation, some may think it is a mystery. Honestly, thanks to the fire sale of 07’ the Preds lost their franchise goalie in Tomas Vokoun by having to trade him just days before his No-Trade Clause kicked in. I still believe had there been no ownership issues that David Poile does not make that deal.

However, the deal was struck and Chris Mason got his chance to be a starting goaltender. Although he outshined Vokoun at times in the 06-07 season, it became clear by the end of the 08 season that Mason may not have the mental aspects of being the #1 goalie worked out. Thus, he struggled and that gave Dan Ellis the opportunity to step in and show the world what he has. Ellis suddenly was producing wins and getting the CONSISTENT play that all teams hope for with their goalie.

Now, at the end of another off-season we find the Nashville Predators set to start the season with another new #1 with a freshly inked contract. Dan Ellis was rewarded for his season and playoff success with a 2 year $3.5 million contract. As expected, Pekka Rinne is slated to be the backup after putting in his due time in the AHL with the Milwaukee Admirals.

As I perused www.hockey-reference.com the other week I was noticing the total shutout numbers for active goalies. What I saw surprised me a bit. Dan Ellis in his first full season of NHL action (although playing in just over half of the Preds game, 44) already has 6 shutouts to his credit. What surprised me were the names either just above his total or just below. Ryan Miller and Tim Thomas with just 7 shutouts. Cam Ward tied with Ellis at 6. Ilya Bryzgalov and Peter Budaj just below with 5.

Looking at those shutout stats I began to wonder what other goalies did in their first full year of action. How did they fare when playing in at least 40 games for the first time? If I discovered a trend then maybe I could get a feeling for what to expect out of Ellis this upcoming year and whether or not he will end up doing better than Mason did. Here is what I found:

First we have our feature goalie, Dan Ellis compared against the man he passed by, Chris Mason.





Similar stats when you get down to the nitty gritty. A slightly better GAA for Ellis, 1 more shutout than Mace, and a little better Pt. %. Overall you have to think the numbers are almost identical.

Next I compared Ellis to goaltenders near his shutout total. I was intrigued by Ryan Miller’s name and looked up his first 40+ game season’s stats.





Surprisingly Danny looks pretty good compared to Miller. Dan had a better Pt%, more shutouts, less goals against and a slightly better GAA. Also Dan’s save percentage was .010 higher. It should be noted that Ellis played in 4 games less and Miller compiled over 600 more minutes.

As I continue to look at the lists I decided to just throw Ellis in with a bunch of other starting goalies around the league. I’ve bolded the leader in each category and italicized the runner-up. Remember this is the first year these goaltenders were in 40 or more games.





That is quite an interesting list when I look at it. The best comparisons are Ellis vs the combo of Luongo, Brodeur, Miller, Mason, and Legace. All of those are under 50 games played. So here is the quick view of them together with leader and runner-up bolded and italicized respectively:





One thing the table above shows me is that the Preds do have a solid D. They allowed the 2nd fewest shots on goal on their goaltender. The 6 shutouts that lead the six goalies further prove this. I find Ellis’ points percentage interesting as well since two charts above have him ranked 2nd only to Marty Turco. Also interesting is Ellis finishing 2nd of 6 in both the GAA and SV% categories.

From it all I take that Dan Ellis is much more comparable to a Manny Legace more than any of the other goalies I put on the tables. (Some of the stats make Dan look real good, such as a better GAA and SV% than Brodeur, but we have to remember to factor in progression of goalies. It would be impossible to reach Brodeur status since Martin is going to be the best of all-time.) A similar amount of minutes, and Legace holds a slight edge on categories such as goals against, goals against average, and goals allowed. I would say that if Ellis career ends up anywhere near the All-Star Legace’s, well then things should be ok. At the moment, I still think Ellis will start the next two years and then it will likely be Pekka Rinne’s time.

The last logical step is to compare what each of the goaltenders did in the playoffs (if their team reached it in their 1st 40+ game year) as compared to Ellis performance this past year.





The trend is obvious that most goalies in this category end up getting put out of the 1st round. Brodeur is an exception but then again he is likely the best goalie of all-time. What is interesting is that Dan Ellis has the highest save percentage of them all and this occurred with him facing the eventual Stanley Cup winner. On the opposite end of the spectrum, only 2 other goalies had higher GAA, Miller and Lundqvist.

After analyzing all the stats it puts Ellis in some decent company to say the least. If Dan can bulk up and keep his conditioning in check then I think he’ll be ok. We all have concerns about Dan’s weight issue however I’m sure that the coaching staff and Dan have figured out a plan this summer to be proactive about the issue.

You may be saying to yourself, “Brandon, what were you trying to prove?” Well I wasn’t trying to make any specific point about Ellis but rather give you an overview of what type of stats we are truly looking at and let you analyze the situation for yourself. The point of this is to spark discussion and have a intelligent conversation about the concerns.

There will be plenty of speculation as to whether Dan Ellis continues his strong play. Some may say he might end up with a season like Mason’s with the new #1 tag around the neck. Personally I like Dan’s chances to better himself, but the game is played for a reason and only time will tell. Hopefully you got as much out of the comparisons as I did.

Thanks go out to www.hockey-reference.com for the stats, and also Daniel Tolensky and Hockeybuzz user stackii for their help with getting the tables formatted to show up on the blog.

Till next time, TAKE CARE










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