Unless you are under a rock (or enjoying your family outdoors on a beautiful Sunday in the summer and not searching Swedish news websites) you may not have heard that the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet is reporting Sundin to Vancouver as a done deal. The rival Swedish paper, Expressen, quotes Sundin's agent in Sweden as denying it and saying there's no substance to the report.

http://www.aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/hockey/

http://www.hockeyexpressen.se/Nyheter/1.1238230/sundins-agent-fornekar-overgang

TSN has also dismissed this rumour.

I AM NOT DISMISSING THIS RUMOUR AS OF NOW.


And here's why:

First sources. A few have been adamant about the fact that the Sundin Saga (please please please) is nearing a conclusion faster than a Jay Wells Slapshot (jk Jay). And in fact I was hearing yesterday afternoon (through a text message as I sat and watched "Wild Ocean" with my family at the Franklin Institute Imax Theater) (btw WORST IMAX MOVIE EVER) that Sundin was once again leaning towards Vancouver.

There is a Giant Pendulum in the Franklin Institute Science Museum that proves the earth is indeed turning (in case the coming and going of the sun wasn't doing it for you) and the pendulum slowly knocks downs small pins as it progresses around the giant circlular sun dial. This is a beautiful allegory for me as I follow the Sundin situation. (Thanks Foppa for coming out and saying you aren't playing for a while)

But more importantly, here's why I feel we need to take note of the papers in Europe. They are on a pretty damn good streak right now.

Jagr was to Omsk, Straka to Czech, Demitra to Van, and others have all broken first on foreign papers, been denied by player or agent, and inevitably came to fruition.

I will say this: TSN is denying this and that is interesting, simply because every outlet has teams it is more tied-in with than others, and TSN has always had a beat on Vancouver. However, this is a new Vancouver regime...

For a Swedish paper to say that Mats to Vancouver is a done deal is actually really telling. This is not a small potatoes story over there. The agent's denial is a given, so I take nothing from that. The Swedes and Fins have their own little network. They all talk to each other, so this report is extremely curious.


In conclusion...a big fat MAYBE. However a Definite Maybe, not a "No Way" Maybe.


THE CAP BALANCING ACT: RATE YOUR TEAM

Given what I do here, nothing fascinates me more than this topic. You see, I cover all 30 teams and have just two ears and (usually) one functioning brain. The biggest question I face some days is, "Who to call next?" That is the whole key to what I do...knowing who to call next.

There are pillars to building a team I have found. All teams use this, of course due to the rising cap, they all define the pillars by differing figures, but the rest remains the same.

A top tier goalie of course is a must... allow 3-5 million for your starter and 1-2 million for your veteran backup, while your kid plays on the farm and gets ice time...

After that the four groups of players that each team needs in perfect balance...

#1-Superstars (6 Million and Up) and BIG MONEY GUYS (4M-6M)

Now "overpaid" may be wrong in a very few cases, but even some of these SS themselves will tell you that although they should be the highest paid players on the team they really aren't worth being 3-10 times higher paid than other players on the team. The fact is that there is a difference between a 7 million dollar player that has come up in your own system and a 7 million dollar guy that you signed in the heat of competition on July 1. Very few players in this range are home grown. You need at least 4 of these to satisfy your fans, but get more than three over 5 and you're out of balance.

#2- Second Tier (TL) (2-4M)

I have found this to be the most interesting category for trade rumours and probably the category where more Cups are won. STs are either home grown young stars on their second deal or solid top six forwards or top four d signed on a UFA deal. These players make or break your team. You need at least four of these. Six is ideal.

#3-Rookie Contracts (under a million)

This is your trump card. The more of these you can get into your starting three lines makes you golden. For every RC that plays top line minutes you get to add another Second Tier. And that is huge.

#4-Role Players (under 2)

Another hugely overlooked yet "can't be over-rated" category. Veteran players who fill specific needs on your fourth line that can step up to third line duty in the case of injury. They can be tough guys, penalty killers, defensive specialists, team mentors, etc...Every Cup champion has a few of these who you will remember ten years after they won it all.

So how does your team fit into this formula?

I will do one team, and you all can do your teams and from this we can learn what teams still need to do prior to the season to ice the best team possible.

This is where the new CapCentral section on hockeybuzz is hugely helpful.


Picking a team at random:

The Colorado Avalanche.

In goal: Peter Budaj. 700k
backed up by Raycroft 800k

A little risky here, but if Budaj can start and win then the Avs just bought themselves money for an extra TL or two.

Super Stars (over 6)

Ryan Smyth
(Joe Sakic)


BIG MONEY PLAYERS $4M Plus

Scott Hannan
JM Liles
Hejduk (3.9)
(Svatos)

Second Tier: 2-4M

Wolski
Tucker
Clark
Salei
Foote


Role Players: Under 2

Arnason
Laperriere
Leopold

Rookie Contracts (under $1M)

Stastny

Possible RCs to make team
Galiardi
Burki
Hensick
Stewart


Cap Space Left 15M (Give Sakic 7 and Svatos 4) so it is probably more like 4


So to analyze the Avs:

Each category ranked 1-10

The Superstars I'd give an 8. (assuming Sakic returns) both guys earn their money in many ways.

Big Money Players: Also an 7. I like all four players' value (assuming Svatos lands in here after
Arb)

Second Tier: I'd Give a 4. IMO there isn't much here for the money and this is a bad category in which to be out of balance.

Role Players: 6

Rookie Contracts: 7-Could use one more of those kids to jump up, but Stastny has proven to be a top 6.

So a rating of a 32. Out of balance due to a drop off of Second Tier, but an abundance of Big Money players does add a bit more desperation to this season for the Avs in terms of their window opening or closing.

More Rumours later, but I would love to hear your opinion on this system and to see you analyze your team...

Cheers,

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