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Thoughts on Cole for Pitkanen

July 1, 2008, 4:57 PM ET [ Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
First, as a Canes fan let me wish the best to Erik Cole in next stop in his NHL career. Erik Cole is a class act who was a significant part of both (2002 finals run and 2006 Stanley Cup) Carolina Hurricanes postseason runs of magic. (Yes. I realize that he saw minimal action in the playoffs in 2006 due to the neck injury, but I argue that his play early played a huge part in our regular season record that afforded us needed and used home ice advantage in the playoffs.)

As for the trade, I am hesitant to love it because of the risk that comes with Joni Pitkanen and his sub-par 06-07 and to some degree 07-08 campaign. But given what the team had (more forwards than we needed) and what the team needed (a top 4 blueliner with some offense), I like the trade and will go out on the limb and vote 'for.'

There will be those in Carolina red, black and white who will be furious that we a top-line, physical gamer like Cole for a big potential, big question mark defenseman. But that is cheating and weighing the best of Erik Cole against the worst of Joni Pitkanen. Fact is, both are exactly 3 years away from being worth a ton more than they are now. 3 years ago Erik Cole was preparing for a breakout season as a dominant top-line power forward. At the same time, Joni Pitkanen was getting ready to bust out for 46 points in only 58 games while also taking great strides defensively. Neither has come close to matching those 05-06 campaigns. Pitkanen had a rough 06-07 on a bad Forsberg-less Flyers team, and Cole has show fits of 05-06 with too many gaps of fighting injuries, not being nearly as dominant and looking more like a very good checking line forward with offensive upside rather than a true top-line forward. 51 points in 07-08 playing on a top line where Eric Staal surged again just is not enough offensively.

So for me the trade comes down to a couple points and a couple questions:

1) I reallllllyyyy hope GM Jim Rutherford has some idea what he is getting into contract-wise with Pitkanen. He was traded from Philadelphia partly due to difficulties working out a long-term contract. Edmonton then failed to get a long-term deal done last summer and then again until now. Are his demands completely unreasonable?

If so, a player of his offensive upside is a game of roulette. If he has a bad year (or 2 or 3) you end up stringing yourself along on $2Mish contracts that are not great for what you are getting. But the second he puts it together and meets even most of his potential, he puts up 55-60 points and suddenly commands $6-7M/season via arbitration, offer sheet or unrestricted free agency.

The unresolved portion of this trade is if/how much Rutherford can get a deal done for. 4 years/$15M? Or...?

2) Cole going anyway. Because the skating NHL makes it much harder to find big/physical players who are not skate speed burdens, Cole was going to command a bunch of money next summer. But at 50ish points like 07-08 and a style of play prone to constant nagging bruises and injuries, he is a risky $5-6M/3-year deal come next summer. I just do not see Rutherford keeping him next summer. I think he knows there is a good chance that he is trading 1 year of Cole for hopefully more years of Pitkanen.

3) What we need. Again, I think it mostly comes down to what the Canes desperately need - defense versus what we have too much of - forwards. Eaves is very much top 9 capable even if not proven at right wing. Walker and Williams give the Canes a capable if not impressive 3 deep down the right side with Larose also a possibility if he can take a step up scoring-wise.

In the limited audition by Corvo in late 07-08, Rutherford and the scouting department clearly got it right on another offensive-minded, recently-maligned offensive blueliner. Here is hoping that they got this 1 right too. Though I am reasonably certain that the initial North Carolina reaction will be negative to trading a fan-favorite, solid forward for a question mark, Pitkanen's upside has the potential to make Rutherford look like an absolute genius on this 1 only 3-4 months from now.

Go Canes!

As an aside, hopefully the trade will get a few of the regulars stopping back by. I took a bit of a blogging hiatus with the Canes early season end and a busy personal life, but I plan to start blogging Canes stuff regularly again with today's big news as a kickoff.
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