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Silly season begins in Flyerdom

May 19, 2008, 4:46 PM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
In many ways, this year's offseason will be more difficult for the Flyers to navigate than last year's. The club has much less cap space with which to work and many critical decisions to make on how to take the next step in the quest for the Stanley Cup.

Here's a look at five of the key questions Paul Holmgren will have to answer over the summer.

1. Should the Flyers re-sign Jeff Carter at all costs?

In his third NHL season, Jeff Carter took big strides toward realizing his potential. He scored 29 goals, improved significantly as a defensive player and stepped to the forefront while Mike Richards was out with a torn hamstring. He also generally played well in the playoffs.

The biggest barrier to true stardom in the NHL for Carter is his offensive streakiness. He will go on a tear for seven to 10 games at a time and then get cold offensively for the next dozen to 15 games. If he could cut those droughts in half, he'll be a 35 to 40 goal scorer.

Right now, however, Jeff Carter is not a franchise player and does not deserve to be paid like one. The Flyers have indicated that re-signing Carter is the No. 1 offseason priority. If that means matching another team's offer sheet to the restricted free agent, they will do so.

The latter could hamstring the club's ability to resign its other players (R.J. Umberger and Randy Jones in particular) without significantly shedding salary elsewhere on the roster. But the danger of losing Carter is minimal, despite what you may hear or read elsewhere.

The only way Carter would not be a Flyer next year is if another team signs him to a franchise player type of offer sheet -- a huge leap of faith in a player who has not yet shown he can be a No. 1 center. Short of that or a blockbuster trade offer the Flyers absolutely can't refuse, Carter will be a Flyer next year and beyond.


2. How much priority should be placed on re-signing R.J. Umberger?

Despite R.J. Umberger's extraordinary series against the Canadiens, I don't think the Flyers' views on the player have changed much. He's still viewed as a versatile role player who can play on a scoring or checking line as needed. Given good health and a regular role on a scoring line, Umberger could potentially return to (or surpass) the 20-goal scoring output from his rookie season.

If you look at the past history of role players who went wild offensively in the postseason -- think Wayne Merrick in 1981, John Druce in 1990 and Fernando Pisani in 2006 -- the players rarely carried over that type of success in future years. Umberger, who will turn 27 next spring, is likely about as good as he's going to get.

Does Umberger deserve a raise? Absolutely. Would the club like to have him back? Of course. But it all depends on his agent's salary demands. If meeting grossly inflated salary demands ties the Flyers' hands, the club may be better off using its cap space in other ways.

Umberger is arbitration eligible this summer. I would not be at all surprised if that's the route the negotiations end up going. If you pinned me down to an absolute yes or no on whether Umberger will be back in Philly next season, I'd lean toward yes. But even if the Umberger case doesn't reach an arbitrator, I think it will be a short-term deal followed by unrestricted free agency .


3. How much priority should be placed on re-signing Randy Jones?

Restricted free agent Jones is being counted on to be a starting defenseman again next year. He took significant strides as an NHL defenseman this year. He's not a true offensive defenseman, but he's a good two-way puck mover and a solid defender when he's playing in the role of a #4 or #5 defenseman.

As a non-star player who only earned $525,000 the past two seasons, there is still plenty of room to reward Jones with a substantial raise with whatever maneuverability the club has under the cap. As a UFA, Jones would be highly sought after by other clubs. As an RFA, he's likely a non-factor for teams other than the Flyers.



4. Will Derian Hatcher be back next season?

That's up to Hatch himself to decide if his battered knees have another season left in them. He won't be traded -- he has a no-trade clause and limited value as an off-season trade candidate (he's the type of player clubs seek at the deadline, not over the summer). And I doubt he'll be bought out.

The hope is that Hatcher makes his intentions clear sooner rather than later. He's aware of the need for the club to plan for next season, but won't be rushed. Once Hatcher's status is clarified, the club can plan its 2008-09 blueline adjustments accordingly.

Despite rumors to the contrary, I would not look for the Flyers to pursue a marquee UFA defenseman such as Campbell or Redden. Rather, I think they're more likely to try to trade a forward for for a veteran defenseman. Perhaps they'll even try to trade up in the draft to get one of the several fine blueline prospects in this draft.

Alternatively, Philly may sign a serviceable veteran FA as a stopgap while waiting for some of the prospects already in the system to develop. The Flyers don't have any potential franchise defensemen in the pipeline, but there's no shortage of potential top-six guys.

The prospect ranks includes the steady if unspectacular Nate Guenin, the mobile Oskars Bartulis (coming off a fine rookie year for the Phantoms), offensive-minded Mike Ratchuk (a rookie next season for the Phantoms), and two-way defenseman Joonas Lehtivuori (who needs to be signed by June 1 and is coming off a strong year in Finland's SM-Liiga and the World Junior Championships).

Also keep in mind that Ryan Parent should play a much bigger role on the Flyers' defense as the 2008-09 season progresses. While he has minimal offensive upside, he has the potential to be a solid NHL defender who also possesses well above-average mobility.


5. What's the prognosis for Simon Gagne?

The Flyers are a much better team with a healthy Simon Gagne in the lineup. The club's history with concussions certainly gives pause for concern, but I think the club handled Gagne's most recent concussion the right way by shutting him down for the season.

Some people in the media have quietly expressed the view that the Flyers should shop Gagne now to gauge his trade value and perhaps gain significant salary cap relief from Gagne's $5.25 million cap hit.

Those are mutually exclusive sentiments in this day and age -- you can't get both. However, I can see merit to the trade argument on an either/or basis. Here's the bigger question: Until Gagne shows he can play at his accustomed level (meaning he's not the tentative perimeter player we saw in January) and also avoid recurrent concussions, what team would even want to risk trading for him?

Besides, with Vaclav Prospal unlikely to be re-signed as an unrestricted free agent, the Flyers need a healthy Gagne in the lineup next year. Claude Giroux has outstanding potential but he's not going to step right onto the first line.

In a worst -case scenario (i.e., Gagne's concussion issues continue), the Flyers will have to put him back on LTIR and make a trade for another Prospal type of player at next year's deadline.

As for Giroux, look for him to make the big club out of camp. It's realistic to expect him to have an NHL rookie season similar to the one Gagne had in 1999-2000 (20 goals, 48 points in a second and third line role). Anything beyond that will be a bonus from a 20-year-old player.
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