The last thing I want to be is that guy who constantly criticizes player contracts. I have complete and total respect for the General Managers in the National Hockey League and they are free to manage their budgets/cap space as they see fit.
But in all seriousness I don’t get it.
I can’t understand it.
I’m baffled beyond belief.
Mike Ribeiro is a good player having a great year.
He’s turning 28 soon and has definitely grown by leaps and bounds since the trade to Dallas.
Is he a $25 million over the next five years-calibre player? Not on my team. No way.
You want some reasons? I’ll give you ten to start and we can go from there:
1. 2 playoff goals in 24 career games
2. 8 playoff points in 24 career games
3. 1 playoff goal in 17 career AHL games
4. 45% in the faceoff circle (this season and career)
5. Cannot kill penalties – 0 mins this year and 14 for his career
6. Not a workhorse – 18.5 min per game this year, just under 15 min per last year
7. Twenty playoff games in a row without a goal
8. Thirty-four shots on goal in 24 playoff games
9. That stunt against Boston (he’s grown up now, I get it)
10. Doesn’t draw penalties – 6 taken, 8 drawn all year
Ok so I admit, I do put a lot of stock in playoff performance.
But what it really comes down to is this:
$5 mil a year over a long-term contract used to buy you a player that you expected to be an impact player for your team. Sure it didn’t always work out that way but there was an expectation for sure.
Let’s look at the most expensive UFAs who switched teams over the 10 summers prior to this one.
$9 mil per– Holik, Guerin
$8 mil per – Fedorov, Joseph
$7 mil+ per - Roenick, Chara, Fleury
$6 mil+ per - Belfour, Niedermayer, Khabibulin, Messier, Turgeon, Jovanovski, Gilmour, Joseph, Amonte, Hatcher, Blake
$5 mil+ per - Selanne, Forsberg, Hull, Mogilny, Messier, Francis, Lapointe, Lang, Gonchar, Kubina, Savard
That’s it. You see Hall of Famers, guys who won Cups and starred on the International stage and some other guys who were simply overvalued for one simple reason (keep reading).
And if you’re looking for forwards who received $25 mil+ there are but six names – Holik, Guerin, Fedorov, Roenick, Turgeon and Lang.
Expand that to also look at the $20-25 mil range and you get Amonte (4 yrs, $24 mil), Arnott (5 yrs, $22.5 mil), Mogilny (4 yrs, $22 mil), Fleury (3 yrs, $21 mil), Messier (3 yrs, $20 mil), Francis (4 yrs, $20 mil), Lapointe (4 yrs, $20 mil) and Savard (4 yrs, $20 mil).
The Stars gave Ribeiro both an extraordinarily high salary AND a long-term security to the tune of five years.
Is that really market value for a player who just set a career high with 21 goals and has never put up more than 65 points?
For a player who has 89 career goals and 258 points in 398 games?
If it really is, then I’m not interested in getting that deal done.
And at the very, VERY minimum I’d make him earn it. Play like you have been down the stretch and into the playoffs and you’ll get what you deserve. Forty-one games does not justify this deal. And barring a Conn Smythe performance, the price tag on Mike Ribeiro wasn’t going over $25 million, even on the open market.
Remember, in 2006 Marc Savard put up 97 points coming out of the lockout after scoring 1.15 points per game the season prior. His price tag? $5 mil per.
Now fast forward to the summer of 2007. Danny Briere was coming off a 95-point season after scoring 1.20 points per game the season prior. He was one of the most coveted players on the market, largely because of his 34 playoff points in the two previous seasons. His price tag? $6.5 mil per, while Ryan Smyth was locked up for $6 mil per.
Does Mike Ribeiro belong in the same ballpark as those guys? Well if you want to make a determination based on 41 games then you can make an argument. But when you consider that he’s averaged 17 goals and 55 points a year over the last two years and 18 goals, 58 points a year over the last three AND consider the fact that he’s been a complete and utter disappointment when the games really matter then I’d have to give a resounding no.
Sometimes being in a contract year makes players do very abnormal things. Things that can’t/won’t be repeated after a massive contract is signed.
Contractyearitis is something that all General Managers really need to look at when evaluating an unrestricted free agent.
Cases in recent memory have included:
Jason Blake: averaged 25 goals over three seasons, then scored 40
Sheldon Souray: averaged 37 pts over two seasons, then put up 64
Viktor Kozlov: averaged 29 pts over two seasons, then put up 51
Tom Poti: averaged 32 pts over three seasons, then put up 44
Bryan McCabe: averaged 40 pts over three seasons, then put up 68
Donald Audette: averaged 41 pts over three seasons, then put up 71
Steve Heinze: averaged 37 pts over three seasons, then put up 52
Todd Marchant: averaged 38 pts over three seasons, then put up 60
Jason Arnott: averaged 50 pts over three seasons, then put up 76
Aaron Ward: averaged 10 pts over three seasons, then put up 25
Pierre Turgeon: averaged 66 pts over three seasons, then put up 82
Martin Lapointe: averaged 35 pts over three seasons, then put up 57
Rob Zamuner: averaged 22 pts over three seasons, then put up 37
Theo Fleury: averaged 73 pts over two seasons, then put up 93
Sergei Fedorov: averaged 66 pts over three seasons, then put up 83
Luc Robitaille: averaged 74 pts over two seasons, then put up 88
Igor Ulanov: averaged 10 pts over three seasons, then put up 23
Martin Rucinsky: averaged 35 pts over three seasons, then put up 55
Adrian Aucoin: averaged 32 pts over there seasons, then put up 44
In hindsight it’s very easy to look at that list and pick out some of the worst deals even given out in unrestricted free agency but really the explanation is simple.
Contractyearitis.
Mike Ribeiro has 21 goals on 58 shots this year. He has scored on an unbelievable 36.2% of his shots, almost 20% better than his career shooting percentage of 16.86% (not to be confused with his 5.88% playoff percentage).
How ridiculous is a 36.2% shooting percentage? Well here are all the other players in the league who have 10+ goals this year and are over 20%, going into Wednesdays games:
Tomas Holmstrom – 17 goals on 76 shots = 22.4%
Patrick Sharp – 21 goals on 95 shots = 22.1%
Brad Boyes – 21 goals on 98 shots = 21.4%
Marek Svatos – 16 goals on 75 shots = 21.3%
Ilya Kovalchuk – 34 goals on 164 shots = 20.7%
Valtteri Filppula – 13 goals on 63 shots = 20.6%
Six other players are over 20% in the entire league – but nobody else is even within 13% of Mr. Ribeiro. Is his performance really sustainable over the next five years or is this a case of contractyearitis?
It’s a simple fact that prices go up each year. And I’m all for players getting paid what they’re worth.
But this deal doesn’t make sense. Ribeiro is not a legit impact player and he doesn’t add any of those intangibles that you’d certainly consider overpaying for (like his linemate Brenden Morrow – 6 yrs, $24.6 mil in Sep of ’06 or Shane Doan – 5 yrs, $22.75 mil in Feb of ’07, both Captains who will be paid less in total and on average than Ribeiro). He’s being paid long-term for performance over a short-term that he won’t be able to replicate and he’s failed consistently in the playoffs, both at the NHL and AHL levels.
Ribeiro is a nice-to-have but not a need-to-have. He’s especially nice to have when he’s outperforming his contract and putting up a point per game.
Will he be able to live up to the extension that he’s signed?
Not in my opinion.
And yet as with the Richards deal there really isn't any outrage. It's like fans are desensitized to bad and/or extremely risky contracts that simply don't make a lot of sense.
There's no doubting that a dollar definitely doesn’t go as far as it used to anymore.
Apparently neither does twenty-five million.
Danny –
[email protected] 
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