Defending Champs to be kayoed in Opening Round



Leafs Improved Since My August Forecast, But...



BY HOWARD BERGER



The Fan-590 Radio



TORONTO � Having deeply insulted fans of the Maple Leafs with a
stab-in-the-dark prediction of 78 points in mid-August (I reiterate:
the slight was not intentional), I promised Blue and White loyalists an
updated forecast once the exhibition schedule concluded. That time has
arrived. Whether or not hockey's most faithful, undeterred followers
will be more enamored with the current projection is highly debatable.
But, rest assured, this calculation is the result of a purely
scientific process � encompassing hours of insomnia, and surreptitious
gatherings with the most infallible visionaries across the NHL. Nothing
you read, see or hear about the up-coming season can possibly unfold as
accurately as the following summation.



Now, for reality...



As mentioned in my August column, making predictions about a 30-team
professional sports league, while enjoyable, is fraught with peril and
uncertainty. In fact, in the current-day NHL � with an unreasonably
long and compacted schedule that lends itself to significant injuries �
choosing the order of finish in the standings, and an eventual Stanley
Cup winner, is hardly more than a crapshoot. A unanimously touted club,
for instance, could lose the services of its number-one goaltender and
fade into oblivion, like an elite football team suddenly without its
starting quarterback. No two positions in all of sport are more
critical to success, and it's virtually impossible to assume which of
these indispensable athletes will survive an entire season.



It is easier, of course, to adjudge the teams that appear to have the
greatest levels of talent and depth, and to balance those teams against
others in their division, conference, and the league. To concede, in
other words, what the landscape might look like in a perfect world,
with all players healthy and in uniform for the bulk of the schedule.
That's the most conventional and plausible way to compose a forecast;
in fact, it's the only way. Trying to determine which teams will be
knocked astride by injury and illness is like predicting when your next
bout of the flu will occur.



We must then revert to premonition and instinct � elements that spawn
the subjective opinions we all possess. With that in mind, my
predictions do follow but, beforehand, I have these observations about
what I've noticed during the NHL exhibition schedule:



*While many hockey watchers confess to seeing a light at the end of the
tunnel in the new rules application, I'm not so confident. The game is
an absolute mess right now, with coaches, players and referees trying
to reach an understanding on how the sport should be policed. The games
are generally dreadful to watch, with far too many stoppages in play
for referees to assess penalties that lead mostly to confusion and
irritation. There is no semblance at all of the uniformity that the
league is seeking, nor should it be promptly expected. This is an
enormous challenge for all parties concerned, particularly the
referees, who are neither robotic nor equally efficient. As in all
walks of life, there are good, average and lousy hockey officials � the
distinction noticeably sharp since the advent of the two-referee
system. To expect that these men � already burdened with a thankless
task � will perform with indistinguishable cohesion and proficiency is
a fool's paradise. This isn't to suggest that the league is misguided
in its intention, or to wish that the endeavor fails. Far from either.
It is, however, a suggestion that hockey people temper their short-term
expectations. The NHL seems to have undertaken an infinitely more
demanding pursuit than anyone might care to admit.



*Adding to this challenge is the absurdity of one particular directive
� a rule that sends most coaches and players up one side of the wall
and down the other. Ever since the dimensions and confines of a hockey
rink were created, players have been using the boards and glass to
their strategic advantage. Given the speed and reactionary elements of
the game, pucks are occasionally fired at heights greater than
intended; thus the presence of the aforementioned restraints. Sometimes
these pucks clear the glass and wind up among the spectators. Only
rarely are these volleys purposeful, and the NHL � in its wisdom � has
taken to automatically penalizing an accident. To me, it makes no sense
whatsoever. Referees, by their very nature and training, are empowered
to apply discretion in almost all aspects of the game (less so,
nowadays), and even a mediocre official can usually determine whether a
skater has deliberately shot the puck out of play. Why not allow the
referees to use their instincts in these situations? I understand that
strict enforcement has been mandated to increase the flow of action.
But, baseball players are not penalized for routinely fouling off
pitches with two strikes in the count, even though it slows the pace of
a game. Why should hockey players (and teams) be punished for a
noticeably inadvertent act? Let the referees use their own judgment.



*I like the shootout. It's enthralling, it's captivating and it's the
only way to ensure that a game does not end the way it started � all
even. The penalty shot has long been hockey's most exciting play, and
fans that were deprived of the NHL last season deserve to enjoy this
gimmick. But, there's no question it will require the biggest emotional
adjustment of any of the new rules. I haven't talked to a manager or a
coach who isn't extremely wary of having a bitterly fought contest
decided by such artificial means. Something tells me there will be
enough opposition to this concept that it will quickly be re-visited by
the league's Board of Governors.



*The NHL must address the issue of sub-standard ice conditions that
exists in almost all of its 30 arenas. This is easily the number-one
complaint among players over the past decade, and it is primarily
responsible for the annual epidemic of groin injuries. The demands of
travel, a busy schedule, and very few off days are enough for the
players to contend with. Crappy ice is simply intolerable. Technology
exists for improved playing conditions and it's the league's
responsibility to ensure that the problem is rectified. The skaters
have enough on their plate.



And now, after carefully observing the pre-season, and with devout
respect to the unknown, I present to you my final-standing and playoff
predictions for the 2005-06 NHL campaign.







EASTERN CONFERENCE



1. Ottawa Senators [108 points]



2. Philadelphia Flyers [105 points]



3. Tampa Bay Lightning [102 points]



4. New Jersey Devils [99 points]



5. Boston Bruins [94 points]



6. Pittsburgh Penguins [93 points]



7. Atlanta Thrashers [90 points]



8. Toronto Maple Leafs [89 points]



9. Florida Panthers [87 points]



10. New York Islanders [83 points]



11. Montreal Canadiens [80 points]



12. Buffalo Sabres [78 points]



13. New York Rangers [70 points]



14. Carolina Hurricanes [62 points]



15. Washington Capitals [55 points]







WESTERN CONFERENCE



1. Vancouver Canucks [110 points]



2. San Jose Sharks [95 points]



3. Detroit Red Wings [94 points]



4. Calgary Flames [105 points]



5. Anaheim Mighty Ducks [93 points]



6. Edmonton Oilers [91 points]



7. Nashville Predators [88 points]



8. Phoenix Coyotes [83 points]



9. Chicago Blackhawks [81 points]



10. Columbus Blue Jackets [79 points]



11. Dallas Stars [76 points]



12. Colorado Avalanche [74 points]



13. Los Angeles Kings [71 points]



14. Minnesota Wild [67 points]



15. St. Louis Blues [63 points]







PLAYOFF MATCH-UPS � EASTERN CONFERENCE � QUARTERFINALS



OTTAWA vs. Toronto [Senators in 6]



PHILADELPHIA vs. Atlanta [Flyers in 7]



TAMPA BAY vs. Pittsburgh [Penguins in 6]



NEW JERSEY vs. Boston [Devils in 6]







PLAYOFF MATCH-UPS � WESTERN CONFERENCE � QUARTERFINALS



VANCOUVER vs. Phoenix [Canucks in 6]



SAN JOSE vs. Nashville [Predators in 6]



DETROIT vs. Edmonton [Oilers in 6]



CALGARY vs. Anaheim [Flames in 7]







EASTERN CONFERENCE � SEMIFINALS



OTTAWA vs. Pittsburgh [Senators in 6]



PHILADELPHIA vs. New Jersey [Flyers in 7]







WESTERN CONFERENCE � SEMIFINALS



VANCOUVER vs. Nashville [Canucks in 5]



CALGARY vs. Edmonton [Flames in 6]







EASTERN CONFERENCE � FINAL



OTTAWA vs. Philadelphia [Ottawa in 7]







WESTERN CONFERENCE � FINAL



VANCOUVER vs. Calgary [Canucks in 7]







STANLEY CUP FINAL



VANCOUVER vs. Ottawa [Senators in 6]







I know. Fans of the Maple Leafs will be outraged with this prediction.
Imagine somebody from T.O. picking the hated Senators � four-time
playoff fodder for the Leafs � to not only exorcise that geographic
demon, but to actually win the whole shootin' match. Hey Toronto: It's
going to happen. Get ready for some big-time smash-mouthin' from the
nation's capital. John Muckler's rebuilding program is complete. The
Ottawa Senators are the deepest club in the NHL, from top to bottom.
And they will prevail over the Vancouver Canucks in the first
all-Canadian Stanley Cup Final since 1989.



This represents a slight amendment from my August, pre-training camp
forecast. In that summation, I also chose Vancouver to represent the
Western Conference, but I picked Philadelphia to make it through in the
East. And, I went with the Canucks to win the Cup. After observing the
2005 pre-season, I'm sticking with Vancouver to squeeze past Calgary in
the West, though it's an overwhelmingly unpopular choice. Going with
Dan Cloutier from start to finish is a big-time stretch, but that's my
gut feeling and I'm holding firm. In the East, no team will be as good
as Ottawa, so I'm switching from the Flyers to the Senators, but only
after a close, seven-game skirmish in the Conference championship. And,
Ottawa will be too much to handle for Bertuzzi, Naslund and company in
the Final.



Why the Senators? Just look at the roster. And tip a gaze behind the
bench. Dominik Hasek replaces the unreliable Patrick Lalime in goal and
it says here � as with fossil Ed Belfour in Toronto � the "Dominator"
will respond one more time. Up front, Jason Spezza gained the most of
any player from the lockout, spending an essential development year in
the American Hockey League and watching his confidence soar. Pre-season
indications could have him strongly challenging for the Art Ross Trophy
this season as NHL scoring champ. Add Daniel Alfredsson, a rejuvenated
Dany Heatley, and prize rookie Brandon Bochenski to a mix of forwards
that also includes Martin Havlat, Brian Smolinski and Mike Fisher, and
the Senators can match any forward brigade in the conference.



On defense, Ottawa sports arguably the best threesome in the league
with Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden and Chris Phillips. And behind the bench,
the Senators have gone from stoic Jacques Martin (and his Maple Leaf
playoff albatross) to the fiery Bryan Murray, who is likely to bring
another dimension to the club come springtime. It is now or never for
the Senators, and I'm banking on now.



Maple Leaf fans will notice that I've bumped the team up from a
10th-place finish in the East (back in August) to a playoff position at
No. 8. That ranking could increase if all of the Leafs' core players
somehow escape lengthy injuries. But, I don't see it happening. Nor do
many others. I suspect that Eric Lindros, Jason Allison and Belfour
will be in and out of the line-up all season, as will others. And, I'm
not counting on Nik Antropov and Alexei Ponikarovsky to provide Mats
Sundin with the prolific wingers he's lacked during his
decade-and-a-bit in blue and white.



I do believe that Jeff O'Neill and Darcy Tucker will have terrific
seasons, and that rookie Alexander Steen will stick with the club and
show plenty of first-year savvy, though I'm not convinced he'll be a
huge point producer. And, while Bryan McCabe is a more-than adequate
wheel horse on the blue line, I reiterate that he falls slightly shy of
providing the Leafs with the Norris Trophy-type leader they require.



This will be a team in some form of turmoil through much of the season,
mostly due to health concerns. The pizzazz and experience of coach Pat
Quinn will compensate, as it usually does, but not to an extent that
will see Toronto make it past the opening round of the post-season.



Let's drop the damned puck already!

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