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So How Trade-able Are You? |
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So the other night I was looking at the current crop of UFAs and looking forward to February and I started thinking about all the factors that go into whether a team does trade away a pending UFA anytime from now. Last night I was up all night working on the new FlyersBuzz TV, and I continued to perfect a formula based on the following factors for UFAs.
Factors Considered...
1. What is the likelihood that they are retiring? A player that is in his last run has a far more likely possibility to get moved to try and win a Cup.
2. What is his Cap hit remaining? This number is less of a factor as the season goes on.
3. What is his current season's point per game production?
4. How many years experience does he have and how old is he?
5. Is he a playoff performer?
6. Is he injury prone?
7. How many years has he been with his current team?
8. The Tank Factor: Is his team out of the playoffs or likely to be out of the playoffs?
9. What is the available Cap Space for teams that are in the playoffs?
10. What Position is his Team in to sign him next season?
So I, with the help of my lovely Phd wife, came up with a secret formula.
Here is a list of some of the Western UFA's and where they land...
The higher the number, the closer to 100, the more tradeable they are.
Western Conference UFA's
Martin Gelinas 80.01
Greg De Vries 79.22
JP Dumont 77.49
Radim Vrbata 77.11
Daymond Langkow 73.27
Geoff Sanderson 73.29
Daymond Langkow 73.27
Andrew Brunette 71.86
Robert Lang 71.32
Michael Peca 67.52
Marty Reasoner 67.5
Ladislav Nagy 61.67
Joe Sakic 66.17
Jason Williams 63.46
Adam Foote 61.15
Yanic Perreault 60.99
Wes Walz 60.87
Scott Thornton 59.19
Pavol Demitra 58.29
Jaroslav Modry 57.99
Kristian Huselius 57.72
Patrick Sharp 56.87
Rob Blake 56.04
Brad Stuart 55.19
Dick Tarnstrom 54.74
Daniel Cleary 54.20
Mike Ribeiro 55.40
Brian Rolston 54.38
Brent Sopel 53.95
Doug Weight 53.59
Owen Nolan 52.44
John-Michael Liles 51.72
Keith Carney 51.71
Jim Vandermeer 49.95
Stephane Yelle 49.22
Martin Lapointe 48.42
Mattias Norstrom 47.52
Sergei Fedorov 45.81
Nick Schultz 45.78
Petteri Nummelin 45.11
Andreas Lilja 42.44
Craig Conroy 42.24
Nicklas Lidstrom 41.57
David Vyborny 40.16
As you can see, it is interesting to see how players on teams currently on playoff teams that are high, could be moved if their teams fell out of the playoffs. They would go higher. Guys that are on non-playoff teams that are high will be the most rumoured for certain in the months to come...
[quote=Gunner Staal]the fact Nick Lidstrom is even on the list kinda makes me wonder as well...[/quote]
A guy like Sakic is tradeable based on the criteria...he scores points, is a UFA, could always retire, has playoff experience...He is less due to the fact that he has been with Colorado for a long time and the AVs are in the playoffs...this list is not who is getting traded, because neither Sakic or Lidstrom are...this list just weighs out the factors that go into the decison whether or not to trade a guy....that being said, it will be tweaked...and numbers can't determine all the value a certain player has.
I am still tweaking, but tomorrow I will put up the East...
thoughts?
by the way, today's talkcast will start at 5pm and feature Mark Spizzirri, our Wings and OHL blogger...
more on that in a bit...
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